leviers pour des politiques d’esr soutenables financièrement
DESCRIPTION
Séminaire sur le financement de l’Enseignement Supérieur : Cotonou 2-4 Juillet 2007. Leviers pour des politiques d’ESR soutenables financièrement. P.A GIOAN : Coordonnateur Afrique à CampusFrance. Plan de l’exposé. 2- Quelques leviers pour construire des - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Leviers pour des politiquesdESR soutenables financirement
P.A GIOAN : Coordonnateur Afrique CampusFranceSminaire sur le financement de lEnseignement Suprieur : Cotonou 2-4 Juillet 2007
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1- Les principales consquences des volutions tendancielles 3- Des outils daide la dcision pour construire des politiques dESR2- Quelques leviers pour construire des politiques dESR soutenables financirementPlan de lexpos
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1- LEVOLUTION DES EFFECTIFS ETUDIANTS3- LES BESOINS ET LES POSSIBILITES DE FINANCEMENT2- LEVOLUTION DE LOFFRE ET DE LA DEMANDE DEMPLOI 5- LEVOLUTION DES RESSOURCES DISPONIBLES PAR ETUDIANT1re partie : Rappel des constats et principales consquences des volutions tendancielles4- LES BESOINS EN ENSEIGNANTS6- UNE STRUCTURE DES DEPENSES PENALISANTE
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Environ 150% daugmentation entre 2004 et 20151- Evolution des effectifs tudiants dans les pays francophones dAfrique (20 pays) : base tendancielleSource : Etude sur le financement de lESR
Graph2
1450001980
2000001985
2720001990
3500001995
5500002000
760000760000
20101200000
20151853000
1980-2005
2004-2015
Feuil1
1- Effectifs tudiants dans le priv en Cte d'Ivoire
19911992199319941995199619971998
% tudiants dans le priv0%3%5%14%17%24%23%27%
19911992199319941995199619971998
effectif tudiants40917180672059081142312055527980
2- Rpartition Population active
MALI ( 2004)
Secteur priv formel1%
Fonction publique1%
Secteur rural74%
Secteur informel24%
Cte d'Ivoire ( 2000)
Secteur priv formel5%
Fonction publique2%
Secteur rural66%
Secteur informel27%
3- Rpartition interne du budget de l'ESR
Dpenses sociales55%
personnel25%
Dpenses acadmiques20%
19801985199019952000200520102015
1980-2005145,000200,000272,000350,000550,000760,000
2004-2015760,0001,200,0001,853,000
POPULATION
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
230,000,000236,900,000244,007,000251,327,210258,867,026266,633,037274,632,028282,870,989291,357,119300,097,832309,100,767
5,750,0005,922,5006,100,1756,283,1806,471,6766,665,8266,865,8017,071,7757,283,9287,502,4467,727,519
172,500177,675183,005188,495194,150199,975205,974212,153218,518225,073
Besoins nouveaux69,00071,07073,20275,39877,66079,99082,39084,86187,40790,029
Dpart69,00071,07073,20275,39877,66079,99082,39084,86187,40790,029
Besoins totaux138,000142,140146,404150,796155,320159,980164,779169,723174,814180,059
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
nb70000080000090500010131501122255.51229670.8151332167.433351425769.49009751514471.860411609359.349238121710741.212507661818942.16894066
entre300000315,000330,750347,288364,652382,884402,029422,130443,237465,398488,668513,102
sorties200000210,000222,600238,182257,237280,388308,427333,428348,349364,017380,467397,741
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins138,000142,140146,404150,796155,320159,980164,779169,723174,814180,0591,582,015
Sorties ESR222,600238,182257,237280,388308,427333,428348,349364,017380,467397,7413,130,835
Feuil1
0
0.03
0.05
0.14
0.17
0.24
0.23
0.27
% tudiants dans le priv
Feuil2
40
917
1806
7205
9081
14231
20555
27980
effectif tudiants
Feuil3
0.01
0.01
0.74
0.24
Mali (2004)
0.05
0.02
0.66
0.27
Cte d'Ivoire ( 2000)
0.55
0.25
0.2
1980-2005
2004-2015
Besoins
Sorties ESR
-
Croissance forte (plus de 150%)
Djibouti - ComoresMali- BninRCI- TchadBurkina- SngalCameroun- Rwanda Croissance plus modre (entre 90% et 150%)
RDC - Gabon Guine - Togo Burundi Mauritanie MadagascarMoins de 90% pour le Niger, le Congo et la RCADes situations contrastes selon les pays ( source : tude sur le Financement de lESR)
-
Exemple type de rpartition des emplois par secteur 2- Lvolution de loffre et de la demande demploi
Graph1
0.03
0.02
0.6
0.35
Feuil1
1- Effectifs tudiants dans le priv en Cte d'Ivoire
19911992199319941995199619971998
% tudiants dans le priv0%3%5%14%17%24%23%27%
19911992199319941995199619971998
effectif tudiants40917180672059081142312055527980
2- Rpartition Population active
MALI ( 2004)
Secteur priv formel1%
Fonction publique1%
Secteur rural74%
Secteur informel24%
Secteur priv formel3%
Fonction publique2%
Cte d'Ivoire ( 2000)Secteur rural60%
Secteur priv formel2%Secteur informel35%
Fonction publique2%
Secteur rural66%
Secteur informel27%
3- Rpartition interne du budget de l'ESR
Dpenses sociales55%
personnel25%
Dpenses acadmiques20%
19801985199019952000200520102015
1980-2005145,000200,000272,000350,000550,000760,000
2004-2015760,0001,200,0001,853,000
58%55%
POPULATION
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
230,000,000236,900,000244,007,000251,327,210258,867,026266,633,037274,632,028282,870,989291,357,119300,097,832309,100,767
5,750,0005,922,5006,100,1756,283,1806,471,6766,665,8266,865,8017,071,7757,283,9287,502,4467,727,519
172,500177,675183,005188,495194,150199,975205,974212,153218,518225,073
Besoins nouveaux51,75053,30354,90256,54958,24559,99261,79263,64665,55567,522
Dpart69,00071,07073,20275,39877,66079,99082,39084,86187,40790,029
Besoins totaux120,750124,373128,104131,947135,905139,982144,182148,507152,962157,551
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
nb70000080000090500010131501122255.51229670.8151332167.433351425769.49009751514471.860411609359.349238121710741.212507661818942.16894066
entre300000315,000330,750347,288364,652382,884402,029422,130443,237465,398488,668513,102
sorties200000210,000222,600238,182257,237280,388308,427333,428348,349364,017380,467397,741
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins120,750124,373128,104131,947135,905139,982144,182148,507152,962157,5511,384,263
Sorties ESR222,600238,182257,237280,388308,427333,428348,349364,017380,467397,7413,130,835
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins cumuls120,750245,123373,226505,173641,078781,060925,2421,073,7501,226,7121,384,263
Sorties ESR cumules222,600460,782718,019998,4061,306,8331,640,2611,988,6102,352,6272,733,0943,130,835
( 2000-2005) 18 paysAfriqueHors Afrique
francophoneanglophoneAfrique
% des dpenses courantes publiques d'ducation21%20%21%14%
% du PIB0.53%0.79%0.60%0.35%
Besoins 20151.13%
Possibilits 20150.63%
Besoins1,13 % du PIB
Dficit priode 2004-20153milliards de $
Ressources mobilisables0.63%3.78
Ressources ncessaires structure constante1.13%6.78
0.720.0654545455
en millions sz $
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
% PIB0.530.600.660.730.790.860.920.991.051.121.181.25
90,00091,80093,63695,50997,41999,367101,355103,382105,449107,558109,709111,9043000000
4775476196947718529351,0221,1111,2041,3001,39910,929
0.530.540.550.560.570.580.590.60.610.620.630.64
En $4774965155355555765986206436676917167,0903,839
possibilit FTI477504.90533.73563.50594.26626.01658.81692.66727.60763.66800.88839.28
En Euros
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins de financement (millions d' Euros)3984565165786437107798519261,0031,0831,166
Possibilits de financement public ( millions d' Euros)398413429446463480498517536556576597
possibilit ( FTI)398421445470495522549577606636667699
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins en % de PIB0.530.600.660.730.790.860.920.991.051.121.181.25
Possibilits en % de PIB0.530.540.550.560.570.580.590.600.610.620.630.64
POssibilits en % de PIB ( FTI)0.530.550.570.590.610.630.650.670.690.710.730.75
en millions de $en %0.02
Possibiliit FTI ( 20% pour le suprieur)
Cette possibilit est relativement optimiste dans la mesure o beaucoup de pays n'auront pas atteint les objectifs de la FTI.
Investissements raliser200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
effetifs tudiants70000080000090500010131501122255.51229670.8151332167.433351425769.49009751514471.860411609359.349238121710741.212507661818942.16894066
carts100000105000108150109105.5107415.315102496.6183593602.056747499988702.370312499894887.4888281252101381.863269531108200.956433008
Investissements raliser
3000Euros en moyenne300000000300,000,000315,000,000324,450,000327,316,500322,245,945307,489,855280,806,170266,107,111284,662,466304,145,590324,602,869
( en F CFA196,800,000,000206,640,000,000212,839,200,000214,719,624,000211,393,339,920201,713,344,913184,208,847,679174,566,264,775186,738,578,014199,519,506,914212,939,482,260
en cumul en Euros300,000,000600,000,000900,000,0001,215,000,0001,539,450,0001,866,766,5002,189,012,4452,496,502,3002,777,308,4703,043,415,5813,328,078,048
actuels en F CFA30,000,000,000
actuels en Euros45,731,70748,018,29350,419,20752,940,16855,587,17658,366,53561,284,86264,349,10567,566,56070,944,88874,492,132
cumuls en Euros45,731,70791,463,415139,481,707189,900,915242,841,082298,428,258356,794,793418,079,655482,428,760549,995,319620,940,207
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins en investisements (cumuls) en Euros300,000,000600,000,000900,000,0001,215,000,0001,539,450,0001,866,766,5002,189,012,4452,496,502,3002,777,308,4703,043,415,5813,328,078,048
Possibilits d'investissement (cumules) en Euros45,731,70791,463,415139,481,707189,900,915242,841,082298,428,258356,794,793418,079,655482,428,760549,995,319620,940,207
En Euros
7000001800000
Profs former2020
20052015
Nombre d'enseignants3500090000
A former066000
Dpenses sociales16%
Personnel60%
Dpenses acadmiques24%
PIB85
Ressources Etat 15 %15
Budget Autre80
Education 20 %20
Primaire 50%50
Autre 30%30
Suprieur 20%20
PaysDpenses courantes en % du PIB (2004 ou proche)Dpenses courantes en % du PIB. Demande sociale 2015Ressources pour les dpenses courantes en % du PIB 2015Ecarteffectifs 2004effectifs 2015augmentation
Cte dIvoire0.691.720.71-1.01
Cameroun0.410.960.41-0.55
Sngal1.112.181.14-1.04522821470002.8116751463181%
Rwanda0.8930.98-2.02
Mali0.411.290.41-0.88
Bnin0.792.010.85-1.16
Guine0.510.940.64-0.3
Burkina Faso0.460.920.58-0.34
Burundi0.861.810.86-0.95
Togo0.610.930.61-0.32
Comores0.291.550.29-1.26EVOLUTION "MECANIQUE" DE LA DEPENSES UNITAIRE PAR ETUDIANT ( en% du PIB/hb)
Congo0.770.870.77-0.1
Madagascar0.430.60.54-0.06
Tchad0.320.850.8-0.05
RCA0.270.350.31-0.04
Mauritanie0.360.590.810.22
Niger0.330.320.450.13
RDC0.120.230.330.1
Ensemble 18 pays0.531.130.63-0.5
Evolution des cots unitaires hypothses croissance du budget = augmentation du PIB
Effectifs199019952000200520102015
1990-2005272,000350,000550,000760,0001,200,0001,853,000
2004-2015760,0001,200,0001,853,000
58%55%Simulation effectue avec une volution tendantielle des effectifs et avec une augmentation du budget de fonctionnement de l'enseignement suprieur de l'ordre de 5% par an.
199019952000200520102015
1990-2005409372272209
2005-201520911065
diffrentiel9.0027.0023.0058.0054.00
% croissance du budget/PIB20.0030.0015.000.000.00
% croissance des effectifs29.0057.0038.0058.0054.00
200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
209183.92161.8496142.427648125.33633024110.295970611299.266373550189.339736195180.405762575672.36518631865.128667686258.6158009176
Feuil1
0
0.03
0.05
0.14
0.17
0.24
0.23
0.27
% tudiants dans le priv
Feuil2
40
917
1806
7205
9081
14231
20555
27980
effectif tudiants
Feuil3
0.01
0.01
0.74
0.24
Mali (2004)
0.05
0.02
0.66
0.27
Cte d'Ivoire ( 2000)
0.55
0.25
0.2
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
1980-2005
2004-2015
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Besoins
Sorties ESR
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Besoins de financement (millions d' Euros)
Possibilits de financement public ( millions d' Euros)
possibilit ( FTI)
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Besoins en % de PIB
Possibilits en % de PIB
POssibilits en % de PIB ( FTI)
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Besoins en investisements (cumuls) en Euros
Possibilits d'investissement (cumules) en Euros
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Besoins cumuls
Sorties ESR cumules
00
00
Nombre d'enseignants
A former
35 000
0
0
0
Europe
0
0
0
Pays francophones d'Afrique
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
00
00
00
00
00
00
1990-2005
2005-2015
0.03
0.02
0.66
0.27
-
Ecarts annuels entre besoins estims et sorties prvisibles (estimations)
Graph2
120750222600
124372.5238182
128103.675257236.56
131946.78525280387.8504
135905.1888075308426.63544
139982.344471725333427.756484375
144181.814805877348349.144308594
148507.269250053364016.601524023
152962.487327555380467.431600225
157551.361947382397740.803180236
Besoins
Sorties ESR
Feuil1
1- Effectifs tudiants dans le priv en Cte d'Ivoire
19911992199319941995199619971998
% tudiants dans le priv0%3%5%14%17%24%23%27%
19911992199319941995199619971998
effectif tudiants40917180672059081142312055527980
2- Rpartition Population active
MALI ( 2004)
Secteur priv formel1%
Fonction publique1%
Secteur rural74%
Secteur informel24%
Cte d'Ivoire ( 2000)
Secteur priv formel5%
Fonction publique2%
Secteur rural66%
Secteur informel27%
3- Rpartition interne du budget de l'ESR
Dpenses sociales55%
personnel25%
Dpenses acadmiques20%
19801985199019952000200520102015
1980-2005145,000200,000272,000350,000550,000760,000
2004-2015760,0001,200,0001,853,000
POPULATION
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
230,000,000236,900,000244,007,000251,327,210258,867,026266,633,037274,632,028282,870,989291,357,119300,097,832309,100,767
5,750,0005,922,5006,100,1756,283,1806,471,6766,665,8266,865,8017,071,7757,283,9287,502,4467,727,519
172,500177,675183,005188,495194,150199,975205,974212,153218,518225,073
Besoins nouveaux51,75053,30354,90256,54958,24559,99261,79263,64665,55567,522
Dpart69,00071,07073,20275,39877,66079,99082,39084,86187,40790,029
Besoins totaux120,750124,373128,104131,947135,905139,982144,182148,507152,962157,551
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
nb70000080000090500010131501122255.51229670.8151332167.433351425769.49009751514471.860411609359.349238121710741.212507661818942.16894066
entre300000315,000330,750347,288364,652382,884402,029422,130443,237465,398488,668513,102
sorties200000210,000222,600238,182257,237280,388308,427333,428348,349364,017380,467397,741
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins120,750124,373128,104131,947135,905139,982144,182148,507152,962157,5511,384,263
Sorties ESR222,600238,182257,237280,388308,427333,428348,349364,017380,467397,7413,130,835
( 2000-2005) 18 paysAfriqueHors Afrique
francophoneanglophoneAfrique
% des dpenses courantes publiques d'ducation21%20%21%14%
% du PIB0.53%0.79%0.60%0.35%
Besoins 20151.13%
Besoins1,13 % du PIB
Dficit priode 2004-20153milliards de $
Ressources mobilisables0.63%3.78
Ressources ncessaires structure constante1.13%6.78
en millions sz $
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
% PIB0.530.5850.640.6950.750.8050.860.9150.971.0251.081.135
90,00091,80093,63695,50997,41999,367101,355103,382105,449107,558109,709111,9043000000
4775375996647318008729461,0231,1021,1851,27010,206
0.530.540.550.560.570.580.590.60.610.620.630.64
4774965155355555765986206436676917167,0903,116
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins de financement4775375996647318008729461,0231,1021,1851,270
Possibilits de financement public477496515535555576598620643667691716
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins en % de PIB0.530.590.640.700.750.810.860.920.971.031.081.14
Possibilits en % de PIB0.530.540.550.560.570.580.590.600.610.620.630.64
en millions de $en %
Feuil1
0
0.03
0.05
0.14
0.17
0.24
0.23
0.27
% tudiants dans le priv
Feuil2
40
917
1806
7205
9081
14231
20555
27980
effectif tudiants
Feuil3
0.01
0.01
0.74
0.24
Mali (2004)
0.05
0.02
0.66
0.27
Cte d'Ivoire ( 2000)
0.55
0.25
0.2
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
1980-2005
2004-2015
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Besoins
Sorties ESR
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Besoins de financement
Possibilits de financement public
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Besoins en % de PIB
Possibilits en % de PIB
-
Ecarts cumuls entre besoins estims et sorties prvisibles (estimations)
Graph2
120750222600
245122.5460782
373226.175718018.56
505172.96025998406.4104
641078.14905751306833.04584
781060.4935292251640260.80232438
925242.3083351021988609.94663297
1073749.577585162352626.54815699
1226712.064912712733093.97975722
1384263.426860093130834.78293745
Besoins cumuls
Sorties ESR cumules
Feuil1
1- Effectifs tudiants dans le priv en Cte d'Ivoire
19911992199319941995199619971998
% tudiants dans le priv0%3%5%14%17%24%23%27%
19911992199319941995199619971998
effectif tudiants40917180672059081142312055527980
2- Rpartition Population active
MALI ( 2004)
Secteur priv formel1%
Fonction publique1%
Secteur rural74%
Secteur informel24%
Cte d'Ivoire ( 2000)
Secteur priv formel5%
Fonction publique2%
Secteur rural66%
Secteur informel27%
3- Rpartition interne du budget de l'ESR
Dpenses sociales55%
personnel25%
Dpenses acadmiques20%
19801985199019952000200520102015
1980-2005145,000200,000272,000350,000550,000760,000
2004-2015760,0001,200,0001,853,000
POPULATION
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
230,000,000236,900,000244,007,000251,327,210258,867,026266,633,037274,632,028282,870,989291,357,119300,097,832309,100,767
5,750,0005,922,5006,100,1756,283,1806,471,6766,665,8266,865,8017,071,7757,283,9287,502,4467,727,519
172,500177,675183,005188,495194,150199,975205,974212,153218,518225,073
Besoins nouveaux51,75053,30354,90256,54958,24559,99261,79263,64665,55567,522
Dpart69,00071,07073,20275,39877,66079,99082,39084,86187,40790,029
Besoins totaux120,750124,373128,104131,947135,905139,982144,182148,507152,962157,551
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
nb70000080000090500010131501122255.51229670.8151332167.433351425769.49009751514471.860411609359.349238121710741.212507661818942.16894066
entre300000315,000330,750347,288364,652382,884402,029422,130443,237465,398488,668513,102
sorties200000210,000222,600238,182257,237280,388308,427333,428348,349364,017380,467397,741
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins120,750124,373128,104131,947135,905139,982144,182148,507152,962157,5511,384,263
Sorties ESR222,600238,182257,237280,388308,427333,428348,349364,017380,467397,7413,130,835
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins cumuls120,750245,123373,226505,173641,078781,060925,2421,073,7501,226,7121,384,263
Sorties ESR cumules222,600460,782718,019998,4061,306,8331,640,2611,988,6102,352,6272,733,0943,130,835
( 2000-2005) 18 paysAfriqueHors Afrique
francophoneanglophoneAfrique
% des dpenses courantes publiques d'ducation21%20%21%14%
% du PIB0.53%0.79%0.60%0.35%
Besoins 20151.13%
Besoins1,13 % du PIB
Dficit priode 2004-20153milliards de $
Ressources mobilisables0.63%3.78
Ressources ncessaires structure constante1.13%6.78
en millions sz $
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
% PIB0.530.5850.640.6950.750.8050.860.9150.971.0251.081.135
90,00091,80093,63695,50997,41999,367101,355103,382105,449107,558109,709111,9043000000
4775375996647318008729461,0231,1021,1851,27010,206
0.530.540.550.560.570.580.590.60.610.620.630.64
En $4774965155355555765986206436676917167,0903,116
En Euros
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins de financement3984484995536096677267888529199871,058
Possibilits de financement public398413429446463480498517536556576597
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins en % de PIB0.530.590.640.700.750.810.860.920.971.031.081.14
Possibilits en % de PIB0.530.540.550.560.570.580.590.600.610.620.630.64
en millions de $en %
Investissements raliser200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
effetifs tudiants70000080000090500010131501122255.51229670.8151332167.433351425769.49009751514471.860411609359.349238121710741.212507661818942.16894066
carts100000105000108150109105.5107415.315102496.6183593602.056747499988702.370312499894887.4888281252101381.863269531108200.956433008
Investissements raliser
3000Euros en moyenne300000000300,000,000315,000,000324,450,000327,316,500322,245,945307,489,855280,806,170266,107,111284,662,466304,145,590324,602,869
( en F CFA196,800,000,000206,640,000,000212,839,200,000214,719,624,000211,393,339,920201,713,344,913184,208,847,679174,566,264,775186,738,578,014199,519,506,914212,939,482,260
en cumul en Euros300,000,000600,000,000900,000,0001,215,000,0001,539,450,0001,866,766,5002,189,012,4452,496,502,3002,777,308,4703,043,415,5813,328,078,048
actuels en F CFA30,000,000,000
actuels en Euros45,731,70748,018,29350,419,20752,940,16855,587,17658,366,53561,284,86264,349,10567,566,56070,944,88874,492,132
cumuls en Euros45,731,70791,463,415139,481,707189,900,915242,841,082298,428,258356,794,793418,079,655482,428,760549,995,319620,940,207
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins en investisements (cumuls)300,000,000600,000,000900,000,0001,215,000,0001,539,450,0001,866,766,5002,189,012,4452,496,502,3002,777,308,4703,043,415,5813,328,078,048
Possibilits d'investissement (cumul)45,731,70791,463,415139,481,707189,900,915242,841,082298,428,258356,794,793418,079,655482,428,760549,995,319620,940,207
En Euros
Profs former
Feuil1
0
0.03
0.05
0.14
0.17
0.24
0.23
0.27
% tudiants dans le priv
Feuil2
40
917
1806
7205
9081
14231
20555
27980
effectif tudiants
Feuil3
0.01
0.01
0.74
0.24
Mali (2004)
0.05
0.02
0.66
0.27
Cte d'Ivoire ( 2000)
0.55
0.25
0.2
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
1980-2005
2004-2015
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Besoins
Sorties ESR
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Besoins de financement
Possibilits de financement public
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Besoins en % de PIB
Possibilits en % de PIB
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Besoins en investisements (cumuls)
Possibilits d'investissement (cumul)
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Besoins cumuls
Sorties ESR cumules
-
Exemple de la Cte dIvoire
Graph1
439134118102601
89297082.61631.65451
13344.710510.682539.987970.7
18630.9514354.2573786.587510567.6695
26533.71319402.01325916.465213485.548
35287.4902524518.91018573.471115945.439
45990.165530590.502211760.856218829.646
58641.5812537301.9777515627.5412521674.4365
74754.4192543291.491217964.007125327.4841
93897.315949773.644247520787.852487528985.79176
114847.27281256539.876405823961.684732578.1917058
136557.5724488663485.85864147427215.992687536269.865953974
159200.92117732670607.612247093230633.372737539974.2395095932
183245.30405764678991.82138938135362.297837543629.523551881
208536.36661937587649.332544937540362.197137547287.1354074374
235486.24612295696718.420148160645739.033237550979.3869106606
263772.119056645106125.5043884851441.320037554684.1843509804
294432.311118344116539.9878440157577.142037558962.8458065098
327509.193181894127874.66930120564154.268437563720.4008637051
362278.833247351139604.72876011671111.516037568493.2127226162
Cumul des sorties ENS SUP
Cumul des emplois
emplois privs
emplois publics
Sorties cumules de l'enseignement suprieur et probabilits d'emploi dans le secteur formel
program 2005
SCENARIO 3 : Abandon de la mesure de 50% de prise en charge dans le priv et affectation des bacheliers restants danss les Universits
EVOLUTION DES EFFECTIFS DANS L'ENSEIGNEMENT SUPERIEURactualisation 23 Juillet 1998
( Matrice de Base)
1990-911991-921992-931993-941994-951995-9696-9797-9898-9999-20002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-10
Effectifs21,34924,32431,60038,20738,94043,54747,18750,04055,98662,95669,53075,04381,28688,01295,216102,519109,253115,857122,088128,33321,34924,32431,60038,20738,94043,54747,18750,040
Universitsortis (fin)2,8013,5001,0003,8933,1133,1414,0604,3545,0306,4267,4877,7578,2748,7969,19610,26610,89611,76912,75513,4752,7102,9972,9052,8433,0833,0383,967
entres (dbut)5,2506,4758,27610,5004,3009,2007,5287,13610,30012,00013,00013,00014,00015,00016,00016,50017,00017,50018,00019,0002112140815341362120219302240
29,14636,00542,64643,14547,83252,15556,247
Effectifs2,4432,1121,4081,5341,3621,2021,9302,2402,5002,4322,4222,5222,5222,5222,5222,6222,7222,8222,9223,122409171,8067,2059,05714,82420,49227,392
ENS/IPNETPsortis (fin)7319946566989004408007401,1681,1101,0001,1001,1001,1001,1001,1001,1001,2001,2001,20030,06337,81149,85152,20262,65672,64783,639
entres (dbut)4614002907825267401,1681,1101,0001,1001,1001,1001,1001,1001,1001,2001,2001,2001,3001,40015,82618,394
30,06337,81149,85152,20262,65688,473102,033
Effectifs1,8991,9802,1672,1072,0752,2982,2233,0873,1223,2163,2213,3013,3073,4243,4972,5152,8153,1153,4153,715
GDS ECOLESsortis (fin)6607407508108221,0238401,6451,6891,7801,8171,8771,8811,9821,982700700700700700
(TS et ING)entres (dbut)9009008757807781,0459481,7031,6801,7831,7851,8981,8831,9982,0551,0001,0001,0001,0001,000
(hors prpa)
CLASSESEffectifs5887308308007707858158809301,0051,1051,2301,4051,5801,7301,8551,9801,9051,8301,855
PRPAsorties ( fin)240300400400385370385400425450475525575650725775825875825775
entres ( dbut)400400400370370400400450450500550600700750800850900750800850
total Gds Ecoles2,4872,7102,9972,9072,8453,0833,0383,967
TOTAL PRIV409171,8066,9588,62413,98918,93025,94030,92933,91436,02238,53641,17844,07746,73130,49532,20433,82834,56634,950
PRIVSpris en charge409171,4804,8035,1729,08712,78416,98918,96218,81218,31818,91320,00521,10521,65522,65523,55524,15524,45524,455
PRIS ENsortis (fin)041003327881,5301,8773,0264,6505,4945,4064,9084,9005,4505,9006,0006,1006,4006,7007,000
CHARGEentres (dbut)408775673,4237004,7035,2276,0825,0004,5005,0006,0006,0006,0006,0007,0007,0007,0007,0007,000
NON PRISnon pris en charge3262,1553,4534,9026,1468,95111,96615,10117,70419,62321,17322,97225,07627,04429,30531,98734,54136,854
EN CHARGESortie (fin)0332817801,2191,6691,9282,8023,7264,6725,1105,4565,8726,3896,9917,5588,1828,860
entre (dbut)003261,8291,3303,2823,6624,0234,6855,0635,4045,6456,2216,9097,5597,8408,6499,67410,11110,495
AUTRESEffectifs15,82618,39418,94619,51420,10020,70321,32421,96322,62223,30124,00024,72025,46226,225
Etablissementssorties ( fin)2,4482,4322,4152,3972,3792,3602,3412,3212,3012,7803,2583,236
Suprieursentres ( dbut)2,0003,0003,0003,0003,0003,0003,0003,0003,0003,0003,5004,0004,000
Effectif TOTAL26,31930,06337,81149,60651,77161,82186,911100,580112,412123,036132,399141,335151,021161,578172,317157,355167,649177,936187,421196,479
bcheliers (n-1)6,9679,45011,10817,0007,90016,82816,10919,13824,76025,00027,00028,00030,00032,00033,00034,00035,00036,00037,00038,000
18,750
1990-911991-921992-931993-941994-951995-9696-9797-9898-9999-20002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-10
Sorties du priv41003327881,5301,8773,0264,6505,4945,4064,9084,9005,4505,9006,0006,1006,4006,7007,000
SIMUL 110%12263170342704705236085004505006006001,8001,8002,100
PRIS EN40%122631701,0272801,8812,0912,4332,0001,8002,0002,4002,4002,4001,8002,1002,100
CHARGE40%122631701,0272101,8812,0912,4332,0001,8002,0002,4002,4002,4002,4002,1002,1002,100
10%4885734270470523608500450500600600600600700700700700
entres408775673423700470352276082500045005000600060006000600070007000700070007000
total privspris en charge409171,4804,8035,1729,08712,78416,98918,96218,81218,31818,91320,00521,10521,65522,755
1990-911991-921992-931993-941994-951995-9696-9797-9898-9999-20002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-10
Sorties du priv00332817801,2191,6691,9282,8023,7264,6725,1105,4565,8726,3896,9917,5588,1828,860
SIMUL 1NON pris en charge 30 %00985493995196071,2071,4051,5191,6211,6941,8662,0732,2682,352
NON PRIS EN30%00985493995196071,2071,4051,5191,6211,6941,8662,0732,2682,3522,595
CHARGE30%00985493995196071,2071,4051,5191,6211,6941,8662,0732,2682,3522,5952,902
10%00331831331732024024685065405656226917567848659671,011
entres*003261,8291,3301,7302,0234,0234,6855,0635,4045,6456,2216,9097,5597,8408,6499,67410,11110,4950
total privs non pris en charge3262,1553,4534,9026,1468,95111,96615,10117,70419,623
* 6% de bacheliers+ 30% de sortis du privs+15% de sortis de l'Universit+10% de sortis des Grandes Ecolesde 97 2000 ( 20 % de bacheliers) de 2000 2005 : 25 % et de 2005 2010: 30 %
sorties de l'Univ7008009101,4143,1133,1414,0604,3545,0306,4267,4877,7578,2748,7969,19610,26610,89611,76912,75513,475
15%7886488281,0504309207537141,0301,200
15%7886488281,0504309207537141,0301,2001,300
SIMUL 210%2002002002005256488281,0504309207537141,0301,2001,3001,300
10%2002002005256488281,0504309207537141,0301,2001,3001,3001,400
SIMULATION10%2002005253248281,0504309207537141,0301,2001,3001,3001,4001,500
SORTIE10%2005256488281,0504309207537141,0301,2001,3001,3001,4001,5001,600
UNIVERSITE10%5256488281,0504309207537141,0301,2001,3001,3001,4001,5001,6001,650
5%263324414525215460376357515600650650700750800825850
5%263324414525215460376357515600650650700750800825850875
10%7008006488281,0504309207537141,0301,2001,3001,3001,4001,5001,6001,6501,7001,7501,800
entres2,0005,2506,4758,27610,5004,3009,2007,5287,13610,30012,00013,00013,00014,00015,00016,00016,50017,00017,50018,00019,000
1990-911991-921992-931993-941994-951995-9696-9797-9898-9999-20002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-10
EVOLUTION3262,1553,4534,9026,1468,95111,96615,10117,70419,62321,17322,97225,07627,04429,30531,98734,54136,854
PRIVE0332817801,2191,6691,9282,8023,7264,6725,1105,4565,8726,3896,9917,5588,1828,860
NON P E C3261,8291,3301,7302,0234,0234,6855,0635,4045,6456,2216,9097,5597,8408,6499,67410,11110,495
1990-911991-921992-931993-941994-951995-9696-9797-9898-9999-20002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-10
EVOLUTION409171,4804,8035,1729,08712,78416,98918,96218,81218,31818,91320,00521,10521,65522,65523,55524,15524,45524,455
PRIVE PRIS041003327881,5301,8773,0264,6505,4945,4064,9084,9005,4505,9006,0006,1006,4006,7007,000
en CHARGE408775673,4237004,7035,2276,0825,0004,5005,0006,0006,0006,0006,0007,0007,0007,0007,0007,000
1-EVOLUTION DES EFFECTIFS ETUDIANTS PAR STRUCTURE( actualisation 23 Juillet 1999)
1990-911991-921992-931993-941994-951995-9696-9797-9898-9999-20002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-10
Bacheliers ( n-1)6,9679,45011,10817,0007,90016,82816,10919,13824,76025,00027,00028,00030,00032,00033,00034,00035,00036,00037,00038,000
evolutionUniversits21,34924,32431,60038,20738,94043,54747,18750,04055,98662,95669,53075,04381,28688,01295,216102,519109,253115,857122,088128,333
finalGds Ecoles publiques2,4872,7102,9972,9072,8453,0833,0383,9673,9523,9813,9264,0314,1324,3044,4274,5003,5723,4623,3003,186
dont Classes prpa5887308308007707858158809301,0051,1051,2301,4051,5801,7301,8551,9801,9051,8301,855
Priv ( pris en charge)409171,4804,8035,1729,08712,78416,98918,96218,81218,31818,91320,00521,10521,65522,65523,55524,15524,45524,455
Priv (non pris en charge)003262,1553,4534,9026,1468,95111,96615,10117,70419,62321,17322,97225,07627,04429,30531,98734,54136,854
PRIVE TOTAL409171,8066,9588,62413,98918,93025,94030,92933,91436,02238,53641,17844,07746,73149,69952,85956,14258,99561,309
ENS-IPNETP2,4432,1121,4081,5341,3621,2021,9302,2402,5002,4322,4222,5222,5222,5222,5222,6222,7222,8222,9223,122
Autres tabl. Suprieursncncncncncnc15,82618,39418,94619,51420,10020,70321,32421,96322,622
Effectif total26,31930,06337,81149,60651,77161,82186,911100,580113,242123,801133,104142,065151,846162,458173,247161,195170,386180,187189,136197,805
% dans le priv0.15%3%5%14%17%23%22%26%27%27%27%27%27%27%27%31%31%31%31%31%
% MESRS60%56%55%56%57%57%58%58%59%
Bacheliers non affects1,4501,7101,3601,8002,2901,750
2-RPARTITION DES EFFECTIFS DANS LES UNIVERSITS(actualisation 23 juillet 1999)
1990-911991-921992-931993-941994-951995-9696-9797-9898-9999-20002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-10
Effectif simulation 121,34924,32431,60038,20738,94043,54747,18750,04055,98662,95669,53075,04381,28688,01295,216102,519109,253115,857122,088128,333
Universit Abobo2,3264,4094,5713,7533,8964,1165,8007,5009,72012,12214,06014,95016,50017,0008,3798,7249,27410,500
URES de Daloa1603685006001,0001,4002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0001,8001,9002,0002,000
Universit Bouak2,6523,6293,9505,5347,3098,5009,23712,13514,80115,60017,86121,41223,26424,00011,50011,00012,00013,000
URES de Korhogo1363655717001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,0001,8001,9002,0002,024
Universit Cocody21,34924,32426,62230,16930,41934,10035,47836,55937,91740,06942,63144,34144,62444,64645,17846,00032,00032,15032,00033,000
URES 35008001,2001,8002,0002,5001,5001,6001,7002,000
URES 45008001,8002,0002,5001,2001,4001,6001,800
URES 55008001,2002,000
Total21,34924,32431,60038,20738,94043,54747,18750,04054,12561,40470,05276,86383,54590,90896,642101,00058,17958,67460,57464,324
diffrence ( Total-simul)000000001,8611,552-522-1,820-2,259-2,896-1,4261,51951,07457,18361,51464,009
4- INVESTISSEMENTS A REALISER( actualisation 23 juillet 1999)
9293949596979899200020012002200320042005
nombre de places construire
Cocody ( y compris rattrapage)2,2983,5472503,6811,3781,0811,3582,1522,5621,71028322500500
Abobo ( lissage sur la priode)2,3262,08316201432201,1842,2001,7202,9021,9388901,0501,000
Bouak2,6529773211,5841,7751,1917372,8982,6667992,2613,5511,852736
Daloa160208132100400400600500500500500
URES 3500300400600200500
URES45003001,000200500
URES 50500300400800
Total nombre de places7,2766,6077335,4253,5042,6243,3797,6507,8486,8116,1826,8634,7024,536
Investissements raliser
montant invest. ( en moyenne 2 millions de F CFA par places)*6,75815,30015,69613,62212,36413,7269,4049,072
Rhabilitation1000200020002,0002,0002,0002,0002,000
Equipements scientifiques et pdagogiques2000300020002,0002,0002,0002,0002,000
Total en millions de F CFA9,75820,30019,69617,62216,36417,72613,40413,072
*la moyenne de 2 millions de F CFA par place comprend le cot des construction, des amnagements, du mobilier des locaux pdagogiques et administratifs
(non compris les cits universitaires et les restaurants)
3-REPARTITION DES EFFECTIFS DANS LES GRANDES ECOLES ET LES CLASSES PRPARATOIRES( Actualisation 23 juillet 1999)
1990-911991-921992-931993-941994-951995-9696-9797-9898-9999-20002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-10
CLASSESEffectifs5887308308007707858158809301,0051,105123014051580173018551980190518301855
PRPAsorties ( fin)240300400400385370385400425450475525575650725775825875825775
entres ( dbut)400400400370370400400450450500550600700750800850900750800850
Dont
Gds Ecoles588730830800770785815880830765705730825880930955930705430255
Hors Gds Ecoles1002404005005807008009001050120014001600
Gds EcolesEffectifs1,3161,4001,4131,4131,3961,4441,4211,4451,4281,4041,3691,3421,2851,1971,1101,026985925846737
(DUT-TS)sorties ( fin)500500500510522573547577574575567557548537524491460449439431
entres ( dbut)600550513500493570550570560550540540500460450440450400370330
Gds EcolesEffectifs58358075469467969470985989491295295910221127128714721657183220242194
INGENIEURSsorties ( fin)160240250300300290200285315305350320333345358383438505543568
(publiques)entres ( dbut)300350362280285315305350320333345358383438505543568613698713
Formation permanente160937838009009001000100011001100
Total Gds Ecoles2,4872,7102,9972,9072,8453,0833,0383,9673,9523,9813,9264,0314,1324,3044,4274,5003572346233003186
679
Total sorties150450510522573547577574575567557548537524491460449439431
Sorties TS5050506052595758575655545450464544
300300300360312353342348342336330324324300276270264270
1001001001201041181141161141121101081081009290889080
5050506052595758575655545450464544454037
500500500600520588570580570560550540540500460450440450400370330
3- ENTREES DES BACHELIERS DANS LE SYSTEME ( simulation 3)
1990-911991-921992-931993-941994-951995-9696-9797-9898-9999-20002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-10
Universits5,2506,4758,27610,5004,3009,2007,5287,13610,30012,00013,00013,00014,00015,00016,00016,50017,00017,50018,00019,000
PRIV (Pris en charge)408775673,4237004,7035,2276,0825,0004,5005,0006,0006,0006,0006,0007,0007,0007,0007,0007,000
Priv (non pris en charge)003261,2701,0009001,0002,7653,0003,0003,2003,5004,0004,5005,0005,1005,2505,4005,5505,700
Prpa400400400370370400400450450500550600700750800850900750800850
TS ( Grandes Ecoles)600550513500493570550570560550540540500460450440450400370330
Autres structures4167987009009001,0001,3412,0003,0003,0003,0003,0003,0003,0003,0003,0003,0003,5004,0004,000
ENS-IPNETP461400290
Total7,1679,50011,07216,9637,76316,77316,04619,00322,31023,55025,29026,64028,20029,71031,25032,89033,60034,55035,72036,880
Bacheliers6,9679,45011,10817,0007,90016,82816,10919,13824,76025,00027,00028,00030,00032,00033,00034,00035,00036,00037,00038,000
Ecart-200-50363713755631352,4501,4501,7101,3601,8002,2901,7501,1101,4001,4501,2801,120
Evolution des cots unitaires l'Universit0.3210.337050.35390250.3715976250.39017750620.40968638160.43017070060.45167923570.47426319750.49797635730.52287517520.5490189340.57646988070.6052933747
0.337050.35390250.3715976250.39017750620.40968638160.43017070060.45167923570.47426319750.49797635730.52287517520.5490189340.57646988070.6052933747
16,86619,81423,39427,12930,74434,96739,75345,15751,05257,12663,60770,38077,679
5-EVOLUTION DES BUDGETS DE FONCTIONNEMENT SUR LA BASE DES COTS 1997 ( SANS PRISE EN COMPTE DE L'INFLATION)( simulation 3)
et Evolution des besoins en enseignant pour les Universits
1994-951995-9696-9797-9898-9999-20002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-10
1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
UNIVERSITS ( amlioration 5% par an)10,52313,61914,34416,86619,81423,39427,12930,74434,96739,75345,15751,05257,12663,60770,38077,679
GRANDES ECOLES TECHNIQUES7,1386,7316,4467,0757,2107,5117,4707,4727,7007,9368,3518,8189,3069,4019,4329,476
FORMATION DE FORMATEURS2,3872,4442,5453,4273,9023,8333,8544,0524,0524,0524,0524,2124,3734,5344,6945,015
SUBVENTION AU PRIVE2,0693,6355,1146,7957,5857,5257,3277,5658,0028,4428,6629,0629,4229,6629,7829,782
SUBVENTIONS CLASSES PRPA050120200250290350400450525600700800
TOTAL FONCTIONNEMENT22,11726,42928,44934,16438,56042,38245,98050,08355,01060,53366,62273,59580,75187,80494,988102,752
% D'AUGMENTATION19.50%7.64%20.09%12.87%9.91%8.49%8.92%9.84%10.04%10.06%10.47%9.72%8.73%8.18%8.17%
BOURSES7,9827,9828,9729,2009,5009,80010,00010,20010,30010,40010,60010,70010,80010,90011,30011,700
UVRES UNIVERSITAIRES4,1094,4094,2934,4004,4004,4004,4004,4004,4004,4004,4004,4004,4004,4004,4004,400
TRANSPORT2,0002,0002,0002,0002,0002,0002,0002,0002,0002,0002,0002,0002,0002,0002,0002,000
TOTAL SERVICE SOCIAUX14,09114,39115,26515,60015,90016,20016,40016,60016,70016,80017,00017,10017,20017,30017,70018,100
% D'AUGMENTATION2.13%6.07%2.19%1.92%1.89%1.23%1.22%0.60%0.60%1.19%0.59%0.58%0.58%2.31%2.26%
BUDGET ENSEIGNEMENT SUPRIEUR36,20840,82043,71449,76454,46058,58262,38066,68371,71077,33383,62290,69597,951105,104112,688120,852
% D'AUGMENTATION12.74%7.09%13.84%9.44%7.57%6.48%6.90%7.54%7.84%8.13%8.46%8.00%7.30%7.22%7.24%
5- Besoins en enseignants ( Etablissements sous tutelle du MESRS). (Actualisation 23 juillet 1999)
199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006
BESOINS (Universit)1,0491,0671,0811,1501,3331,5361,7381,9242,1392,3792,6452,9293,4143,6783,9384,010
Augmentation annuelle18146918320320318621524026628448526426072
(amlioration du ratio 1/35 en 2006)37.140.843.743.542.041.040.039.038.037.036.035.0
BESOINS Grandes Ecoles+prpa394396400410412426440466491514541572414481458443
Recrutement2410214142625232631-15867-22-16
ratio Grandes Ecoles ( 1/12)10.710.412.213.214.013.513.313.012.712.512.312.2
Recrutement administration151515151515151515151515151515
Total des recrutements enseignants201879185217216212240263293315
6- PROGRAMMATION BUDGETAIRE 2000-2005( actualisation 23 juillet 1999)
TYPE DE DPENSES1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
projetprojetprojetprojetprojetprojetprojetprojetprojetprojetprojet
SUPERIEUR GENERAL
Salaires y compris AT
Masse Salariale ( n-1)12,94913,51815,54617,63619,43321,41123,552292,9015,3716,7588,143
Rattrapage3301501,4362,4401,3341,317375
Recrutements nouveaux3101,0281,0299451,0901,2131,3461,43629546881
Glissements catgoriels25927031135338942847110000
contractualisation4006005005005005002,9025,3716,7588,1438,600
Total Salaires8,81812,21512,07912,94913,51815,54617,63619,43321,41123,55225,86952,363
Fonctionnement hors salaires *3,7174,1394,9205,5146,9759,48611,22513,08615,38718,13921,35721,557
Bourses ( y compris bourses hors RCI)5,1955,4605,9605,1526,7006,8006,5006,5006,6006,7006,9006,160
Autres transferts sociaux5,9466,2086,1607,1106,9647,5008,0008,5009,0009,50010,0008,553
Investissements10,9495,5436,5678,4587,40315,75714,09813,09114,18110,72310,45882,982
Total Fonctionnement23,67628,02229,11930,72534,15739,33243,36147,51952,39957,89164,12791,535
Total Fonct. et Invest.34,62533,56535,68639,18341,56055,08957,45860,61066,57968,61574,58443%
-3%6%10%6%33%4%5%10%3%9%
SUPERIEUR TECHNIQUE
Salaires y compris AT153
Masse Salariale ( n-1)4,5394,7074,8555,2235,6956,2386,7897,341186
Recrutements nouveaux775471681301261161322
Glissements catgoriels et harmonisation919497104114125136147100
Contractualisation200300300300300300440
Total Salaires4,8304,8024,5394,7074,8555,2235,6956,2386,7897,3417,9208,240
Fonctionnement hors salaires*4,1163,6346,3696,7856,9718,2689,39710,68811,81512,92213,9811,877
Bourses1,8771,8772,2232,5312,8003,0003,5003,7003,7003,7003,7009,062
Autres transferts sociaux ( sub priv)2,0523,9445,0485,9206,5297,1817,5407,9178,3138,7299,1659,623
Investissements6707291,1352,1151,8513,9393,5243,2733,5452,6812,61419,619
Total Fonctionnement12,87514,25718,17919,94321,15523,67226,13228,54330,61732,69234,76729,242
Total Fonct. et Invest.13,54514,98619,31422,05723,00627,61129,65631,81634,16335,37237,381-16%
TOTAL SUPERIEUR
Total Salaires ( y compris contractualisation)13,64817,01716,61817,65618,37320,76823,33025,67128,20030,89433,790
Fonctionnement hors salaires7,8337,77311,28912,29913,94617,75420,62223,77427,20331,06135,339
Bourses7,0727,3378,1837,6839,5009,80010,00010,20010,30010,40010,600
Autres transferts sociaux7,99810,15211,20813,78913,49314,68115,54016,41717,31318,22919,1653,342
Investissements11,6196,2727,70210,5739,25419,69617,62216,36417,72613,40413,07260,602
Total Fonctionnement36,55142,27947,29850,66855,31263,00469,49376,06383,01690,58398,89323,434
Total Fonct. et Invest.48,17048,55155,00061,24164,56682,70087,11592,427100,742103,987111,96515,222
non compris subvention au priv55,32158,03775,51979,57584,50992,42995,258102,80011,404
Evol Fonctionnement16%12%7%9%13.91%10.30%9.45%9.14%9.12%9.17%102,601
Fonctionnement et Investissements1%13%11%5%28.1%5.3%6.1%9.0%3.2%7.7%120,777
Evol Fonctionnement16%12%7%9%14%10%9%9%9%9%111833089%
Fonctionnement et Investissements1%13%11%5%28%5%6%9%3%8%157413669%
* proportionnel au nombre d'tudiants amlior de 10% par an + 10 % de charge rcurrentes des investissements
Budget ducation256706281774302456350339377941392248383671
%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
0.43402663150.39487167450.34846897330.34431295620.38172037290.41161297720.41860816480.41554967980.4135852080.4232346892
1.73.14.66.2
32.834.535.937.439
36.2339.5843.3047.40
CHARGES RECURRENTES (en millions de F CFA)
Projets Enseignement1998199920002001
Suprieurpersfoncpersfoncpersfoncpersfonc
1-1 Capacit d'accueil120630100540110440100440
1-2 Amlioration Maintenance20300202002015020100
1-3 Dispositif info tudiants3050205010501050
1-4 Enseignement distance20503060408050100
2-1 Schma Directeur00000000
2-2 Filires professionnelles100300100300100300100300
2-3 Sciences Appliques80150501505010050100
2-4 ENS30505050
2-5 Anglais intensif3020304010301010
2-6 Langues orientales1010305010301020
2-7 Centres des RH1050203020202020
2-8 Ples de Dveloppement501008010010010010050
2-9 Agrgation20505020
2-10 Qualit du Priv30101010
3-1 Gestion Universits2030203020202020
3-2 Gestion des CROU202020101010
3-3 Gestion des Grandes Ecoles2030201010101010
3-4 Politique contractuelle105910401530
3-5 Comit Evaluation3050102010201020
3-6 Contrle de gestion206010101010
3-7 Evaluation Bnficiaires101010
3-8 Systme info de gestion30101010
3-9 Formation Planificateur
3-10 Privatisation Transferts-100-300-100-300-100-300-100-300
4-1 Renforcement Documentation40804050205020100
4-2 Capacits Centres Doc4070501005010050150
4-3 Rseaux locaux et tendus60100601306015040125
4-4 Recherche Education2010
4-5 Renf. Capacits Rech.3050305010501050
4-6 Fonds Appui Rech100150150150
Augmentations / annes prcdente6802119660195055017155301665
ESTIMATION DES SORTIES DU DISPOSITIF D'ENSEIGNEMENT SUPERIEUR
1990-911991-921992-931993-941994-951995-9696-9797-9898-9999-20002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-10
UNIVERSITES1,0008009101,4143,1133,1414,0604,3545,0306,4267,4877,7578,2748,7969,19610,26610,89611,76912,75513,475
tertiaire (65%)6505205929192023204226392830327041774867504253785718597866737083765082918759
secondaire (25%)25020022835377878510151089125816061872193920692199229925672724294231893369
mdical (10%)100809114131131440643550364374977682788092010271090117712761348
GDS ECOLES
Publiques
Ingnieurs160240250300300290200285315305350320333345358383438505543568
DUT/DTS500500500510522573547577574575567557548537524491460449439431
FORMATION de
Formateurs7319946566989004408007401,1681,1101,0001,1001,1001,1001,1001,1001,1001,2001,2001,200
( ENS-IPNETP)
GRANDES ECOLES
PRIVEES
pris en charge041003327881,5301,8773,0264,6505,4945,4064,9084,9005,4505,9006,0006,1006,4006,7007,000
non pris en charge000332817801,2191,6691,9282,8023,7264,6725,1105,4565,8726,3896,9917,5588,1828,860
total priv041003641,0682,3103,0964,6956,5788,2959,1319,58010,01010,90611,77212,38913,09113,95814,88215,860
ECOLE HORS MESRS2,0002,0002,0002,0002,0002,0002,0002,0002,4482,4322,4152,3972,3792,3602,3412,3212,3012,7803,2583,236
TOTAL des SORTIES4,3914,5384,4165,2867,9038,75410,70312,65116,11319,14320,95021,71022,64324,04425,29126,95028,28630,66033,07734,770
Cumul des sorties4,3918,92913,34518,63126,53435,28745,99058,64274,75493,897114,847136,558159,201183,245208,536235,486263,772294,432327,509362,279
probabilits d'emploi1990-911991-921992-931993-941994-951995-9696-9797-9898-9999-20002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-10
1994-19981999-20022003-2010Estimation emplois
Universit
30%15%20%tertiaire1951561772766076137928494906277307568071144119613351417153016581752
50%20%30%secondaire1251001141773893935084352523213743884146606907708178839571011
100%80%70%mdical1008091141311314406435402514599621662616644719763824893943
Gds Ecoles
100%100%100%Ingnieurs160240250300300290200285315305350320333345358383438505543568
60%30%40%DUT/DTS300300300306313344328288172173170167164215210196184180176172
100%100%100%Formation formateurs7319946566989004408007401,1681,1101,0001,1001,1001,1001,1001,1001,1001,2001,2001,200
40%15%20%Gd Ecoles prives02401464279241238187898712441370143715012181235424782618279229763172
90%90%90%Ecoles Hors MESRS1,8001,8001,8001,8001,8001,8001,8001,8002,2032,1882,1732,1572,1412,1242,1072,0892,0712,5022,9332,913
Probabilit emplois3,4113,6723,4283,8445,0485,1176,0726,7115,9906,4826,7666,9467,1228,3848,6589,0699,40710,41411,33511,730
dont privs9809941,0791,4122,2792,8063,3274,0032,5172,9913,3313,4083,5654,8805,1465,5145,8336,3046,7817,154
dont public2,4312,6782,3492,4312,7692,3112,7452,7083,4733,4913,4353,5383,5563,5043,5113,5553,5744,1114,5544,576
cart avec les sorties9808669881,4432,8553,6374,6315,94010,12312,66114,18414,76415,52215,66016,63417,88118,87920,24621,74223,040
Cumul des emplois3,4117,08310,51114,35419,40224,51930,59137,30243,29149,77456,54063,48670,60878,99287,64996,718106,126116,540127,875139,605
dont Fonction publique2,6015,4517,97110,56813,48615,94518,83021,67425,32728,98632,57836,27039,97443,63047,28750,97954,68458,96363,72068,493
dont priv8101,6322,5403,7875,9168,57311,76115,62817,96420,78823,96227,21630,63335,36240,36245,73951,44157,57764,15471,112
Cumul des sans emplois9801,8462,8344,2777,13210,76915,40021,34031,46344,12458,30773,07288,593104,253120,887138,768157,647177,892199,635222,674
depuis 1991
1990-911991-921992-931993-941994-951995-9696-9797-9898-9999-20002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-10
Cumul des sorties ENS SUP4,3918,92913,34518,63126,53435,28745,99058,64274,75493,897114,847136,558159,201183,245208,536235,486263,772294,432327,509362,279
Cumul des emplois3,4117,08310,51114,35419,40224,51930,59137,30243,29149,77456,54063,48670,60878,99287,64996,718106,126116,540127,875139,605
emplois privs8101,6322,5403,7875,9168,57311,76115,62817,96420,78823,96227,21630,63335,36240,36245,73951,44157,57764,15471,112
emplois publics2,6015,4517,97110,56813,48615,94518,83021,67425,32728,98632,57836,27039,97443,63047,28750,97954,68458,96363,72068,493
&CEstimation des sorties de l'Enseignement Suprieur( document de travail)
&LMESRS/CAB/CT3 mars 2001
program 2005
Cumul des sorties ENS SUP
Cumul des emplois
Evolution des sorties de l'Enseignement Suprieur et des probilits d'emploi
Cumul des sorties ENS SUP
Cumul des emplois
emplois privs
emplois publics
Sorties cumules de l'enseignement suprieur et probabilits d'emploi dans le secteur formel
-
Les dpenses courantes3- Les besoins et les possibilits de financement( source : tude sur le Financement de lESR )
Graph3
0.530.530.53
0.59545454550.540.55
0.66090909090.550.57
0.72636363640.560.59
0.79181818180.570.61
0.85727272730.580.63
0.92272727270.590.65
0.98818181820.60.67
1.05363636360.610.69
1.11909090910.620.71
1.18454545450.630.73
1.250.640.75
Besoins en % de PIB
Possibilits en % de PIB
POssibilits en % de PIB ( FTI)
Feuil1
1- Effectifs tudiants dans le priv en Cte d'Ivoire
19911992199319941995199619971998
% tudiants dans le priv0%3%5%14%17%24%23%27%
19911992199319941995199619971998
effectif tudiants40917180672059081142312055527980
2- Rpartition Population active
MALI ( 2004)
Secteur priv formel1%
Fonction publique1%
Secteur rural74%
Secteur informel24%
Cte d'Ivoire ( 2000)
Secteur priv formel5%
Fonction publique2%
Secteur rural66%
Secteur informel27%
3- Rpartition interne du budget de l'ESR
Dpenses sociales55%
personnel25%
Dpenses acadmiques20%
19801985199019952000200520102015
1980-2005145,000200,000272,000350,000550,000760,000
2004-2015760,0001,200,0001,853,000
58%55%
POPULATION
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
230,000,000236,900,000244,007,000251,327,210258,867,026266,633,037274,632,028282,870,989291,357,119300,097,832309,100,767
5,750,0005,922,5006,100,1756,283,1806,471,6766,665,8266,865,8017,071,7757,283,9287,502,4467,727,519
172,500177,675183,005188,495194,150199,975205,974212,153218,518225,073
Besoins nouveaux51,75053,30354,90256,54958,24559,99261,79263,64665,55567,522
Dpart69,00071,07073,20275,39877,66079,99082,39084,86187,40790,029
Besoins totaux120,750124,373128,104131,947135,905139,982144,182148,507152,962157,551
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
nb70000080000090500010131501122255.51229670.8151332167.433351425769.49009751514471.860411609359.349238121710741.212507661818942.16894066
entre300000315,000330,750347,288364,652382,884402,029422,130443,237465,398488,668513,102
sorties200000210,000222,600238,182257,237280,388308,427333,428348,349364,017380,467397,741
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins120,750124,373128,104131,947135,905139,982144,182148,507152,962157,5511,384,263
Sorties ESR222,600238,182257,237280,388308,427333,428348,349364,017380,467397,7413,130,835
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins cumuls120,750245,123373,226505,173641,078781,060925,2421,073,7501,226,7121,384,263
Sorties ESR cumules222,600460,782718,019998,4061,306,8331,640,2611,988,6102,352,6272,733,0943,130,835
( 2000-2005) 18 paysAfriqueHors Afrique
francophoneanglophoneAfrique
% des dpenses courantes publiques d'ducation21%20%21%14%
% du PIB0.53%0.79%0.60%0.35%
Besoins 20151.13%
Possibilits 20150.63%
Besoins1,13 % du PIB
Dficit priode 2004-20153milliards de $
Ressources mobilisables0.63%3.78
Ressources ncessaires structure constante1.13%6.78
0.720.0654545455
en millions sz $
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
% PIB0.530.600.660.730.790.860.920.991.051.121.181.25
90,00091,80093,63695,50997,41999,367101,355103,382105,449107,558109,709111,9043000000
4775476196947718529351,0221,1111,2041,3001,39910,929
0.530.540.550.560.570.580.590.60.610.620.630.64
En $4774965155355555765986206436676917167,0903,839
possibilit FTI477504.90533.73563.50594.26626.01658.81692.66727.60763.66800.88839.28
En Euros
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins de financement (millions d' Euros)3984565165786437107798519261,0031,0831,166
Possibilits de financement public ( millions d' Euros)398413429446463480498517536556576597
possibilit ( FTI)398421445470495522549577606636667699
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins en % de PIB0.530.600.660.730.790.860.920.991.051.121.181.25
Possibilits en % de PIB0.530.540.550.560.570.580.590.600.610.620.630.64
POssibilits en % de PIB ( FTI)0.530.550.570.590.610.630.650.670.690.710.730.75
en millions de $en %0.02
Possibiliit FTI ( 20% pour le suprieur)
Investissements raliser200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
effetifs tudiants70000080000090500010131501122255.51229670.8151332167.433351425769.49009751514471.860411609359.349238121710741.212507661818942.16894066
carts100000105000108150109105.5107415.315102496.6183593602.056747499988702.370312499894887.4888281252101381.863269531108200.956433008
Investissements raliser
3000Euros en moyenne300000000300,000,000315,000,000324,450,000327,316,500322,245,945307,489,855280,806,170266,107,111284,662,466304,145,590324,602,869
( en F CFA196,800,000,000206,640,000,000212,839,200,000214,719,624,000211,393,339,920201,713,344,913184,208,847,679174,566,264,775186,738,578,014199,519,506,914212,939,482,260
en cumul en Euros300,000,000600,000,000900,000,0001,215,000,0001,539,450,0001,866,766,5002,189,012,4452,496,502,3002,777,308,4703,043,415,5813,328,078,048
actuels en F CFA30,000,000,000
actuels en Euros45,731,70748,018,29350,419,20752,940,16855,587,17658,366,53561,284,86264,349,10567,566,56070,944,88874,492,132
cumuls en Euros45,731,70791,463,415139,481,707189,900,915242,841,082298,428,258356,794,793418,079,655482,428,760549,995,319620,940,207
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins en investisements (cumuls) en Euros300,000,000600,000,000900,000,0001,215,000,0001,539,450,0001,866,766,5002,189,012,4452,496,502,3002,777,308,4703,043,415,5813,328,078,048
Possibilits d'investissement (cumules) en Euros45,731,70791,463,415139,481,707189,900,915242,841,082298,428,258356,794,793418,079,655482,428,760549,995,319620,940,207
En Euros
7000001800000
Profs former2020
20052015
Nombre d'enseignants3500090000
A former066000
Dpenses sociales16%
Personnel60%
Dpenses acadmiques24%
PIB85
Ressources Etat 15 %15
Budget Autre80
Education 20 %20
Primaire 50%50
Autre 30%30
Suprieur 20%20
PaysDpenses courantes en % du PIB (2004 ou proche)Dpenses courantes en % du PIB. Demande sociale 2015Ressources pour les dpenses courantes en % du PIB 2015Ecart
Cte dIvoire0.691.720.71-1.01
Cameroun0.410.960.41-0.55
Sngal1.112.181.14-1.04
Rwanda0.8930.98-2.02
Mali0.411.290.41-0.88
Bnin0.792.010.85-1.16
Guine0.510.940.64-0.3
Burkina Faso0.460.920.58-0.34
Burundi0.861.810.86-0.95
Togo0.610.930.61-0.32
Comores0.291.550.29-1.26EVOLUTION "MECANIQUE" DE LA DEPENSES UNITAIRE PAR ETUDIANT ( en% du PIB/hb)
Congo0.770.870.77-0.1
Madagascar0.430.60.54-0.06
Tchad0.320.850.8-0.05
RCA0.270.350.31-0.04
Mauritanie0.360.590.810.22
Niger0.330.320.450.13
RDC0.120.230.330.1
Ensemble 18 pays0.531.130.63-0.5
Evolution des cots unitaires hypothses croissance du budget = augmentation du PIB
Effectifs199019952000200520102015
1990-2005272,000350,000550,000760,0001,200,0001,853,000
2004-2015760,0001,200,0001,853,000
58%55%Simulation effectue avec une volution tendantielle des effectifs et avec une augmentation du budget de fonctionnement de l'enseignement suprieur de l'ordre de 5% par an.
199019952000200520102015
1990-2005409372272209
2005-201520911065
diffrentiel9.0027.0023.0058.0054.00
% croissance du budget/PIB20.0030.0015.000.000.00
% croissance des effectifs29.0057.0038.0058.0054.00
200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
209183.92161.8496142.427648125.33633024110.295970611299.266373550189.339736195180.405762575672.36518631865.128667686258.6158009176
Feuil1
0
0.03
0.05
0.14
0.17
0.24
0.23
0.27
% tudiants dans le priv
Feuil2
40
917
1806
7205
9081
14231
20555
27980
effectif tudiants
Feuil3
0.01
0.01
0.74
0.24
Mali (2004)
0.05
0.02
0.66
0.27
Cte d'Ivoire ( 2000)
0.55
0.25
0.2
1450001980
2000001985
2720001990
3500001995
5500002000
760000760000
20101200000
20151853000
1980-2005
2004-2015
120750222600
124372.5238182
128103.675257236.56
131946.78525280387.8504
135905.1888075308426.63544
139982.344471725333427.756484375
144181.814805877348349.144308594
148507.269250053364016.601524023
152962.487327555380467.431600225
157551.361947382397740.803180236
Besoins
Sorties ESR
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Besoins de financement (millions d' Euros)
Possibilits de financement public ( millions d' Euros)
possibilit ( FTI)
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
Besoins en % de PIB
Possibilits en % de PIB
POssibilits en % de PIB ( FTI)
30000000045731707.3170732
60000000091463414.6341463
900000000139481707.317073
1215000000189900914.634146
1539450000242841082.317073
1866766500298428258.384146
2189012445356794793.254573
2496502300.05418079654.868521
2777308470.2925482428759.563167
3043415581.23549995319.492545
3328078047.71437620940207.418392
Besoins en investisements (cumuls) en Euros
Possibilits d'investissement (cumules) en Euros
120750222600
245122.5460782
373226.175718018.56
505172.96025998406.4104
641078.14905751306833.04584
781060.4935292251640260.80232438
925242.3083351021988609.94663297
1073749.577585162352626.54815699
1226712.064912712733093.97975722
1384263.426860093130834.78293745
Besoins cumuls
Sorties ESR cumules
350000
9000066000
Nombre d'enseignants
A former
35 000
0.16
0.6
0.24
Europe
0.16
0.6
0.24
Pays francophones d'Afrique
85
15
80
20
50
30
20
4091990
372.191995
271.69872000
209.207999209.207999
2010110
201565
1990-2005
2005-2015
Graph1
260.76260.76260.76
298.8229090909270.9936276.012
338.3040305455281.53224291.769776
379.2448676945292.38402816308.04745824
421.6880167174303.5572749504324.8595398592
465.6771937541315.0604980012342.2208857599
511.2572626655326.902427064360.1467416806
558.4742634559339.0920090901378.6527434839
607.3754413729351.6384134264397.7549266626
658.0092767011364.5510371326417.4697360711
710.425515266377.8395104216437.8140358853
764.6751996627391.5137022273458.8051197976
Besoins de financement (milliards de F CFA)
Possibilits de financement public ( milliards de FCFA)
possibilit ( FTI)
Feuil1
1- Effectifs tudiants dans le priv en Cte d'Ivoire
19911992199319941995199619971998
% tudiants dans le priv0%3%5%14%17%24%23%27%
19911992199319941995199619971998
effectif tudiants40917180672059081142312055527980
2- Rpartition Population active
MALI ( 2004)
Secteur priv formel1%
Fonction publique1%
Secteur rural74%
Secteur informel24%
Cte d'Ivoire ( 2000)
Secteur priv formel5%
Fonction publique2%
Secteur rural66%
Secteur informel27%
3- Rpartition interne du budget de l'ESR
Dpenses sociales55%
personnel25%
Dpenses acadmiques20%
19801985199019952000200520102015
1980-2005145,000200,000272,000350,000550,000760,000
2004-2015760,0001,200,0001,853,000
58%55%
POPULATION
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
230,000,000236,900,000244,007,000251,327,210258,867,026266,633,037274,632,028282,870,989291,357,119300,097,832309,100,767
5,750,0005,922,5006,100,1756,283,1806,471,6766,665,8266,865,8017,071,7757,283,9287,502,4467,727,519
172,500177,675183,005188,495194,150199,975205,974212,153218,518225,073
Besoins nouveaux51,75053,30354,90256,54958,24559,99261,79263,64665,55567,522
Dpart69,00071,07073,20275,39877,66079,99082,39084,86187,40790,029
Besoins totaux120,750124,373128,104131,947135,905139,982144,182148,507152,962157,551
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
nb70000080000090500010131501122255.51229670.8151332167.433351425769.49009751514471.860411609359.349238121710741.212507661818942.16894066
entre300000315,000330,750347,288364,652382,884402,029422,130443,237465,398488,668513,102
sorties200000210,000222,600238,182257,237280,388308,427333,428348,349364,017380,467397,741
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins120,750124,373128,104131,947135,905139,982144,182148,507152,962157,5511,384,263
Sorties ESR222,600238,182257,237280,388308,427333,428348,349364,017380,467397,7413,130,835
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins cumuls120,750245,123373,226505,173641,078781,060925,2421,073,7501,226,7121,384,263
Sorties ESR cumules222,600460,782718,019998,4061,306,8331,640,2611,988,6102,352,6272,733,0943,130,835
( 2000-2005) 18 paysAfriqueHors Afrique
francophoneanglophoneAfrique
% des dpenses courantes publiques d'ducation21%20%21%14%
% du PIB0.53%0.79%0.60%0.35%
Besoins 20151.13%
Possibilits 20150.63%
Besoins1,13 % du PIB
Dficit priode 2004-20153milliards de $
Ressources mobilisables0.63%3.78
Ressources ncessaires structure constante1.13%6.78
0.720.0654545455
en millions sz $
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
% PIB0.530.600.660.730.790.860.920.991.051.121.181.25
90,00091,80093,63695,50997,41999,367101,355103,382105,449107,558109,709111,9043000000
4775476196947718529351,0221,1111,2041,3001,39910,929
0.530.540.550.560.570.580.590.60.610.620.630.64
En $4774965155355555765986206436676917167,0903,839
possibilit FTI477504.90533.73563.50594.26626.01658.81692.66727.60763.66800.88839.28
En Euros
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins de financement (milliards de F CFA)261299338379422466511558607658710765
Possibilits de financement public ( milliards de FCFA)261271282292304315327339352365378392
possibilit ( FTI)261276292308325342360379398417438459
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins en % de PIB0.530.600.660.730.790.860.920.991.051.121.181.25
Possibilits en % de PIB0.530.540.550.560.570.580.590.600.610.620.630.64
POssibilits en % de PIB ( FTI)0.530.550.570.590.610.630.650.670.690.710.730.75
en millions de $en %0.02
Possibiliit FTI ( 20% pour le suprieur)
Cette possibilit est relativement optimiste dans la mesure o beaucoup de pays n'auront pas atteint les objectifs de la FTI.262400
Investissements raliser200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
effetifs tudiants70000080000090500010131501122255.51229670.8151332167.433351425769.49009751514471.860411609359.349238121710741.212507661818942.16894066
carts100000105000108150109105.5107415.315102496.6183593602.056747499988702.370312499894887.4888281252101381.863269531108200.956433008
Investissements raliser
3000Euros en moyenne300000000300,000,000315,000,000324,450,000327,316,500322,245,945307,489,855280,806,170266,107,111284,662,466304,145,590324,602,869
( en F CFA196,800,000,000206,640,000,000212,839,200,000214,719,624,000211,393,339,920201,713,344,913184,208,847,679174,566,264,775186,738,578,014199,519,506,914212,939,482,260
en cumul en Euros300,000,000600,000,000900,000,0001,215,000,0001,539,450,0001,866,766,5002,189,012,4452,496,502,3002,777,308,4703,043,415,5813,328,078,048
actuels en F CFA30,000,000,000
actuels en Euros45,731,70748,018,29350,419,20752,940,16855,587,17658,366,53561,284,86264,349,10567,566,56070,944,88874,492,132
cumuls en Euros45,731,70791,463,415139,481,707189,900,915242,841,082298,428,258356,794,793418,079,655482,428,760549,995,319620,940,207
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins en investisements (cumuls) en Euros300,000,000600,000,000900,000,0001,215,000,0001,539,450,0001,866,766,5002,189,012,4452,496,502,3002,777,308,4703,043,415,5813,328,078,048
Possibilits d'investissement (cumules) en Euros45,731,70791,463,415139,481,707189,900,915242,841,082298,428,258356,794,793418,079,655482,428,760549,995,319620,940,207
En Euros
7000001800000
Profs former2020
20052015
Nombre d'enseignants3500090000
A former066000
Dpenses sociales16%
Personnel60%
Dpenses acadmiques24%
PIB85
Ressources Etat 15 %15
Budget Autre80
Education 20 %20
Primaire 50%50
Autre 30%30
Suprieur 20%20
PaysDpenses courantes en % du PIB (2004 ou proche)Dpenses courantes en % du PIB. Demande sociale 2015Ressources pour les dpenses courantes en % du PIB 2015Ecart
Cte dIvoire0.691.720.71-1.01
Cameroun0.410.960.41-0.55
Sngal1.112.181.14-1.04
Rwanda0.8930.98-2.02
Mali0.411.290.41-0.88
Bnin0.792.010.85-1.16
Guine0.510.940.64-0.3
Burkina Faso0.460.920.58-0.34
Burundi0.861.810.86-0.95
Togo0.610.930.61-0.32
Comores0.291.550.29-1.26EVOLUTION "MECANIQUE" DE LA DEPENSES UNITAIRE PAR ETUDIANT ( en% du PIB/hb)
Congo0.770.870.77-0.1
Madagascar0.430.60.54-0.06
Tchad0.320.850.8-0.05
RCA0.270.350.31-0.04
Mauritanie0.360.590.810.22
Niger0.330.320.450.13
RDC0.120.230.330.1
Ensemble 18 pays0.531.130.63-0.5
Evolution des cots unitaires hypothses croissance du budget = augmentation du PIB
Effectifs199019952000200520102015
1990-2005272,000350,000550,000760,0001,200,0001,853,000
2004-2015760,0001,200,0001,853,000
58%55%Simulation effectue avec une volution tendantielle des effectifs et avec une augmentation du budget de fonctionnement de l'enseignement suprieur de l'ordre de 5% par an.
199019952000200520102015
1990-2005409372272209
2005-201520911065
diffrentiel9.0027.0023.0058.0054.00
% croissance du budget/PIB20.0030.0015.000.000.00
% croissance des effectifs29.0057.0038.0058.0054.00
200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
209183.92161.8496142.427648125.33633024110.295970611299.266373550189.339736195180.405762575672.36518631865.128667686258.6158009176
Feuil1
0
0.03
0.05
0.14
0.17
0.24
0.23
0.27
% tudiants dans le priv
Feuil2
40
917
1806
7205
9081
14231
20555
27980
effectif tudiants
Feuil3
0.01
0.01
0.74
0.24
Mali (2004)
0.05
0.02
0.66
0.27
Cte d'Ivoire ( 2000)
0.55
0.25
0.2
1980-2005
2004-2015
Besoins
Sorties ESR
Besoins de financement (milliards de F CFA)
Possibilits de financement public ( milliards de FCFA)
possibilit ( FTI)
Besoins en % de PIB
Possibilits en % de PIB
POssibilits en % de PIB ( FTI)
Besoins en investisements (cumuls) en Euros
Possibilits d'investissement (cumules) en Euros
Besoins cumuls
Sorties ESR cumules
Nombre d'enseignants
A former
35 000
Europe
Pays francophones d'Afrique
1990-2005
2005-2015
MBD0004B8BE.xls
Feuil1
1- Effectifs tudiants dans le priv en Cte d'Ivoire
19911992199319941995199619971998
% tudiants dans le priv0%3%5%14%17%24%23%27%
19911992199319941995199619971998
effectif tudiants40917180672059081142312055527980
2- Rpartition Population active
MALI ( 2004)
Secteur priv formel1%
Fonction publique1%
Secteur rural74%
Secteur informel24%
Cte d'Ivoire ( 2000)
Secteur priv formel5%
Fonction publique2%
Secteur rural66%
Secteur informel27%
3- Rpartition interne du budget de l'ESR
Dpenses sociales55%
personnel25%
Dpenses acadmiques20%
19801985199019952000200520102015
1980-2005145,000200,000272,000350,000550,000760,000
2004-2015760,0001,200,0001,853,000
POPULATION
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
230,000,000236,900,000244,007,000251,327,210258,867,026266,633,037274,632,028282,870,989291,357,119300,097,832309,100,767
5,750,0005,922,5006,100,1756,283,1806,471,6766,665,8266,865,8017,071,7757,283,9287,502,4467,727,519
172,500177,675183,005188,495194,150199,975205,974212,153218,518225,073
Besoins nouveaux51,75053,30354,90256,54958,24559,99261,79263,64665,55567,522
Dpart69,00071,07073,20275,39877,66079,99082,39084,86187,40790,029
Besoins totaux120,750124,373128,104131,947135,905139,982144,182148,507152,962157,551
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
nb70000080000090500010131501122255.51229670.8151332167.433351425769.49009751514471.860411609359.349238121710741.212507661818942.16894066
entre300000315,000330,750347,288364,652382,884402,029422,130443,237465,398488,668513,102
sorties200000210,000222,600238,182257,237280,388308,427333,428348,349364,017380,467397,741
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins120,750124,373128,104131,947135,905139,982144,182148,507152,962157,5511,384,263
Sorties ESR222,600238,182257,237280,388308,427333,428348,349364,017380,467397,7413,130,835
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins cumuls120,750245,123373,226505,173641,078781,060925,2421,073,7501,226,7121,384,263
Sorties ESR cumules222,600460,782718,019998,4061,306,8331,640,2611,988,6102,352,6272,733,0943,130,835
( 2000-2005) 18 paysAfriqueHors Afrique
francophoneanglophoneAfrique
% des dpenses courantes publiques d'ducation21%20%21%14%
% du PIB0.53%0.79%0.60%0.35%
Besoins 20151.13%
Possibilits 20150.63%
Besoins1,13 % du PIB
Dficit priode 2004-20153milliards de $
Ressources mobilisables0.63%3.78
Ressources ncessaires structure constante1.13%6.78
en millions sz $
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
% PIB0.530.5850.640.6950.750.8050.860.9150.971.0251.081.135
90,00091,80093,63695,50997,41999,367101,355103,382105,449107,558109,709111,9043000000
4775375996647318008729461,0231,1021,1851,27010,206
0.530.540.550.560.570.580.590.60.610.620.630.64
En $4774965155355555765986206436676917167,0903,116
En Euros
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins de financement (millions d' Euros)3984484995536096677267888529199871,058
Possibilits de financement public ( millions d' Euros)398413429446463480498517536556576597
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins en % de PIB0.530.590.640.700.750.810.860.920.971.031.081.14
Possibilits en % de PIB0.530.540.550.560.570.580.590.600.610.620.630.64
en millions de $en %
Investissements raliser200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
effetifs tudiants70000080000090500010131501122255.51229670.8151332167.433351425769.49009751514471.860411609359.349238121710741.212507661818942.16894066
carts100000105000108150109105.5107415.315102496.6183593602.056747499988702.370312499894887.4888281252101381.863269531108200.956433008
Investissements raliser
3000Euros en moyenne300000000300,000,000315,000,000324,450,000327,316,500322,245,945307,489,855280,806,170266,107,111284,662,466304,145,590324,602,869
( en F CFA196,800,000,000206,640,000,000212,839,200,000214,719,624,000211,393,339,920201,713,344,913184,208,847,679174,566,264,775186,738,578,014199,519,506,914212,939,482,260
en cumul en Euros300,000,000600,000,000900,000,0001,215,000,0001,539,450,0001,866,766,5002,189,012,4452,496,502,3002,777,308,4703,043,415,5813,328,078,048
actuels en F CFA30,000,000,000
actuels en Euros45,731,70748,018,29350,419,20752,940,16855,587,17658,366,53561,284,86264,349,10567,566,56070,944,88874,492,132
cumuls en Euros45,731,70791,463,415139,481,707189,900,915242,841,082298,428,258356,794,793418,079,655482,428,760549,995,319620,940,207
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins en investisements (cumuls) en Euros300,000,000600,000,000900,000,0001,215,000,0001,539,450,0001,866,766,5002,189,012,4452,496,502,3002,777,308,4703,043,415,5813,328,078,048
Possibilits d'investissement (cumules) en Euros45,731,70791,463,415139,481,707189,900,915242,841,082298,428,258356,794,793418,079,655482,428,760549,995,319620,940,207
En Euros
7000001800000
Profs former2020
20052015
A former66000
Nombre enseignants3500090000
Dpenses sociales16%
Personnel60%
Dpenses acadmiques24%
PIB85
Ressources Etat 15 %15
Budget Autre80
Education 20 %20
Primaire 50%50
Autre 30%30
Suprieur 20%20
PaysDpenses courantes en % du PIB (2004 ou proche)Dpenses courantes en % du PIB. Demande sociale 2015Ressources pour les dpenses courantes en % du PIB 2015GAP Cumul (millions $ de 2004)
Cte dIvoire0.691.720.71809
Cameroun0.410.960.41485
Sngal1.112.181.14442
Burkina Faso0.460.920.58437
Rwanda0.843.070.98390
Mali0.411.290.41259
Bnin0.792.010.85247
Guine0.510.940.6496
Burundi0.861.810.8657
Togo0.610.930.6138
Comores0.291.550.2931
Madagascar0.430.60.5419
Congo0.530.580.5316
Tchad0.320.850.88
RCA0.270.350.313
Mauritanie0.360.590.8121
Niger0.330.320.4525
RDC0.120.230.3338
Ensemble 18 pays0.531.250.643,336
Feuil1
0
0.03
0.05
0.14
0.17
0.24
0.23
0.27
% tudiants dans le priv
Feuil2
40
917
1806
7205
9081
14231
20555
27980
effectif tudiants
Feuil3
0.01
0.01
0.74
0.24
Mali (2004)
0.05
0.02
0.66
0.27
Cte d'Ivoire ( 2000)
0.55
0.25
0.2
1450001980
2000001985
2720001990
3500001995
5500002000
760000760000
20101200000
20151853000
1980-2005
2004-2015
120750222600
124372.5238182
128103.675257236.56
131946.78525280387.8504
135905.1888075308426.63544
139982.344471725333427.756484375
144181.814805877348349.144308594
148507.269250053364016.601524023
152962.487327555380467.431600225
157551.361947382397740.803180236
Besoins
Sorties ESR
397.5397.5
447.525413.1
499.392429.165
553.15467445.70736
608.86809462.7397484
666.588784932480.275149392
726.3747604253498.3268705243
788.2855394243516.9085504422
852.3821996791536.0341668085
918.7274121284555.7180444094
987.3854801958575.9748634475
1058.422380021596.8196680294
Besoins de financement (millions d' Euros)
Possibilits de financement public ( millions d' Euros)
0.530.53
0.5850.54
0.640.55
0.6950.56
0.750.57
0.8050.58
0.860.59
0.9150.6
0.970.61
1.0250.62
1.080.63
1.1350.64
Besoins en % de PIB
Possibilits en % de PIB
30000000045731707.3170732
60000000091463414.6341463
900000000139481707.317073
1215000000189900914.634146
1539450000242841082.317073
1866766500298428258.384146
2189012445356794793.254573
2496502300.05418079654.868521
2777308470.2925482428759.563167
3043415581.23549995319.492545
3328078047.71437620940207.418392
Besoins en investisements (cumuls) en Euros
Possibilits d'investissement (cumules) en Euros
120750222600
245122.5460782
373226.175718018.56
505172.96025998406.4104
641078.14905751306833.04584
781060.4935292251640260.80232438
925242.3083351021988609.94663297
1073749.577585162352626.54815699
1226712.064912712733093.97975722
1384263.426860093130834.78293745
Besoins cumuls
Sorties ESR cumules
200535000
6600090000
A former
Nombre enseignants
0.16
0.6
0.24
Europe
0.16
0.6
0.24
Pays francophones d'Afrique
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-
Les Investissements (en milliards de F CFA)
Graph1
196.830
393.660
590.491.5
797.04124.575
1009.8792159.30375
1224.598824195.7689375
1435.99216392234.057384375
1637.7055088328274.2602535938
1821.9143565119316.4732662734
1996.4806212869360.7969295871
2183.2191993006407.3367760665
Besoins (cumuls) en milliards de F CFA
Possibilits cumules en milliards de FCFA
Feuil1
1- Effectifs tudiants dans le priv en Cte d'Ivoire
19911992199319941995199619971998
% tudiants dans le priv0%3%5%14%17%24%23%27%
19911992199319941995199619971998
effectif tudiants40917180672059081142312055527980
2- Rpartition Population active
MALI ( 2004)
Secteur priv formel1%
Fonction publique1%
Secteur rural74%
Secteur informel24%
Cte d'Ivoire ( 2000)
Secteur priv formel5%
Fonction publique2%
Secteur rural66%
Secteur informel27%
3- Rpartition interne du budget de l'ESR
Dpenses sociales55%
personnel25%
Dpenses acadmiques20%
19801985199019952000200520102015
1980-2005145,000200,000272,000350,000550,000760,000
2004-2015760,0001,200,0001,853,000
58%55%
POPULATION
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
230,000,000236,900,000244,007,000251,327,210258,867,026266,633,037274,632,028282,870,989291,357,119300,097,832309,100,767
5,750,0005,922,5006,100,1756,283,1806,471,6766,665,8266,865,8017,071,7757,283,9287,502,4467,727,519
172,500177,675183,005188,495194,150199,975205,974212,153218,518225,073
Besoins nouveaux51,75053,30354,90256,54958,24559,99261,79263,64665,55567,522
Dpart69,00071,07073,20275,39877,66079,99082,39084,86187,40790,029
Besoins totaux120,750124,373128,104131,947135,905139,982144,182148,507152,962157,551
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
nb70000080000090500010131501122255.51229670.8151332167.433351425769.49009751514471.860411609359.349238121710741.212507661818942.16894066
entre300000315,000330,750347,288364,652382,884402,029422,130443,237465,398488,668513,102
sorties200000210,000222,600238,182257,237280,388308,427333,428348,349364,017380,467397,741
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins120,750124,373128,104131,947135,905139,982144,182148,507152,962157,5511,384,263
Sorties ESR222,600238,182257,237280,388308,427333,428348,349364,017380,467397,7413,130,835
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins cumuls120,750245,123373,226505,173641,078781,060925,2421,073,7501,226,7121,384,263
Sorties ESR cumules222,600460,782718,019998,4061,306,8331,640,2611,988,6102,352,6272,733,0943,130,835
( 2000-2005) 18 paysAfriqueHors Afrique
francophoneanglophoneAfrique
% des dpenses courantes publiques d'ducation21%20%21%14%
% du PIB0.53%0.79%0.60%0.35%
Besoins 20151.13%
Possibilits 20150.63%
Besoins1,13 % du PIB
Dficit priode 2004-20153milliards de $
Ressources mobilisables0.63%3.78
Ressources ncessaires structure constante1.13%6.78
en millions sz $
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
% PIB0.530.5850.640.6950.750.8050.860.9150.971.0251.081.135
90,00091,80093,63695,50997,41999,367101,355103,382105,449107,558109,709111,9043000000
4775375996647318008729461,0231,1021,1851,27010,206
0.530.540.550.560.570.580.590.60.610.620.630.64
En $4774965155355555765986206436676917167,0903,116
En Euros
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins de financement (millions d' Euros)3984484995536096677267888529199871,058
Possibilits de financement public ( millions d' Euros)398413429446463480498517536556576597
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins en % de PIB0.530.590.640.700.750.810.860.920.971.031.081.14
Possibilits en % de PIB0.530.540.550.560.570.580.590.600.610.620.630.64
en millions de $en %
Investissements raliser200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
effetifs tudiants70000080000090500010131501122255.51229670.8151332167.433351425769.49009751514471.860411609359.349238121710741.212507661818942.16894066
carts100000105000108150109105.5107415.315102496.6183593602.056747499988702.370312499894887.4888281252101381.863269531108200.956433008
Investissements raliser
3000Euros en moyenne300000000300,000,000315,000,000324,450,000327,316,500322,245,945307,489,855280,806,170266,107,111284,662,466304,145,590324,602,869
( en F CFA300,000,000315,000,000324,450,000327,316,500322,245,945307,489,855280,806,170266,107,111284,662,466304,145,590324,602,869
en cumul en Euros1973945907971,0101,2251,4361,6381,8221,9962,183
actuels en F CFA30,000,000,000
actuels en Euros3032333536384042444749
cumuls en Euros306092125159196234274316361407
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Besoins (cumuls) en milliards de F CFA1973945907971,0101,2251,4361,6381,8221,9962,183
Possibilits cumules en milliards de FCFA306092125159196234274316361407
En F CFA
7000001800000
Profs former2020
20052015
Nombre d'enseignants3500090000
A former066000
Dpenses sociales16%
Personnel60%
Dpenses acadmiques24%
PIB85
Ressources Etat 15 %15
Budget Autre80
Education 20 %20
Primaire 50%50
Autre 30%30
Suprieur 20%20
PaysDpenses courantes en % du PIB (2004 ou proche)Dpenses courantes en % du PIB. Demande sociale 2015Ressources pour les dpenses courantes en % du PIB 2015Ecart
Cte dIvoire0.691.720.71-1.01
Cameroun0.410.960.41-0.55
Sngal1.112.181.1