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Jean Laherrere Réunion ASPO France 19 juin 2019 Graphiques sur l’Arabie Saoudite, NGL & Delphi

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Saudi Arabia oil data from Sama.govcrude prodcrude exporto&g consrefined prodoil consrefined exportNGL prod

Jean Laherrere May 2019

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Saudi Arabia oil production b/t from different sources

b/t BPb/t crude+NGL/Enerdatab/t crude OPEC/Enerdata

Jean Laherrere May 2019

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Saudi Arabia remaining oil reserves 2P 2011 backdated2P 2004 backdatedOPEC/ABS 1P SA1P WO Saudi Arabia1P OGJ Saudi Arabia1P OGJ Neutral ZoneKSA crude+condensateultimate HLDGMN Crude+NGLRystad 2016 2PCRNS 1P crudeDGMN 1P CrudeRystad 2016 1P

Jean Laherrere Ap 2019

OPEC quota fight +90 Gb SA

OPEC quota fight+0 Gb NZ

IHS increase in 2P from 2004 to 2011+90 Gb SA

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aP/C

P%

cumulative production Gb

Saudi Arabia HL of crude oil production 1937-2018

aP/CP%

1998-2018

Jean Laherrere April 2019

Rystad 2PCX=212 GbCP 2015 = 142 Gbultimate = 354 Gb

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Saudi Arabia cumulative oil discovery & production

CP+1P OPECcum disc 2P 2011cum disc 2P 2004HLU = 350 GbU = 300 GbU = 250 GbCP5%cum prod crude OPECCP +1P crude DGMN

Jean Laherrere 14 April 2019

1P OGJ includes half of Neutral Zone reported separately until 2013

OPEC fight on quotas 1985-1989: +300 Gb of speculative resources Al-Huseini 2007: +90 Gb for SA

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Saudi Arabia crude oil production & forecastU = 350 Gb

U = 300 Gb

U = 250 Gb

OPEC ASB

U = 120 Gb

Ghawar

U = 350 Gb

U = 300 Gb

U = 250 Gb

CP OPEC

Jean Laherrere May2019

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-Manifa Manifa discovered in 1957 is huge (45 km x 18 km) with six reservoirs, but poor reservoirs, heavy oil and expensive development. Production (capacity 125 000 b/d) occurs from 1964 to 1984: Production resumes in 2013 with 350 wells from 27 man-made drilling islands & 13 offshore platforms, interconnected by a causeway of 41 km, for a cost over 10 G$. AR 2015 reports a production capacity of 0.9 Mb/d, but AR 2016 and 2017 does not mention Manifa anymore. Manifa is stated as a triumph of engineering!

It seems that corrosion problems occur in 2017 in the water injection. There is no data on present Manifa oil production

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-natural gas

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Saudi Arabia NG marketed production

U = 6500 km3

OPEC mark prod

WEO2010

WEO2018

U = 6500 km3

CP OPEC G.m3

Jean Laherrere May 2019

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World NGL production 17 June 2019

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density kg/m3

b/t versus density for oil products from IEA 2019

b/t6290/d

Jean Laherrere June 2019

ethane

propane

butane

naphtha

LPG

crude oil

bitumen

NGL b/t=13.8

pentanes d = 0.63b/t = 10

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b/t

°API

b/t versus °API for oil products from IEA 2019

b/t

0,0445*(°API+131.5)

Jean Laherrere June 2019

ethane

propane

butane

naphtha

LPG

crude oil

bitumen

NGL b/t=13.8

pentanes d = 0.63b/t = 10

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world NGL production

U = 550 GbWEO2018WEO2017WEO2016WEO2015WEO2014world NGL synt Mb/dNGPL IEO2014NGPL EIA Mb/dU = 550 GbCP NGL Gb

Jean Laherrere May 2019

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Enquête Delphi production brut, extra-lourd, LTO & offshore profond

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world crude oil -XH-LTO-deepwater production

EIA crude+condensate

crude-XHcrude-XH-LTO-deepdeepwater >500 m

LTOXH

Jean Laherrere 18 June 2019

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US & world LTO production forecasts from EIA & IEA

world WEO2018 NPworld WEO2017 NPworld WEO2014 NPworld pastUS AEO2019US AEO2018US WEO2018US AEO2015US AEO2013

Jean Laherrere 18 June 2019