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  • 7/31/2019 PNB-2QFY2013RU

    1/12

    Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

    Pre-prov. profit 2,533 2,841 (10.8) 2,528 0.2

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Punjab National Bank (PNB) registered a disappointing performance for2QFY2013, with its net profit declining by 11.6% yoy. The banks disappointingperformance was a result of a muted performance on the operating front(operating profit came in flat yoy) and considerably higher provisioning expenses onthe back of significant deterioration in the asset-quality, evident from elevated

    slippages (quarterly slippages at a high of 6.2%) and ballooned restructuring.During 2QFY2013, advance for the bank

    grew by healthy pace of 18.4% yoy aided by strong traction in services and retail

    lending. Growth in CASA deposits came in healthy at 15.6% yoy (current deposits

    grew by 19.2% yoy, while savings deposits grew by 14.8% yoy). Reported CASA ratio

    improved by 170bp sequentially to 37.0%. Interest reversal of `163cr on slippages

    and full effect of base rate reduction, resulted in a 43bp qoq decline in the yield on

    advances, which coupled with a 6bp qoq decline in yield on investment, resulted in

    a10bp qoq decline in reported NIMs to 3.5%. Non-interest income (excl. treasury) de-

    grew by 2.4% yoy, due to flat performance on the fee income front and lower

    recoveries. During the quarter, the bank disappointed on the asset quality front, with

    slippages of `4,544cr compared to `2,769cr in 1QFY2013 and `2,819 in

    4QFY2012. Annualized slippage ratio came in at 6.2% compared to 3.8% in1QFY2013 and 4.7% in 4QFY2012. Recoveries and upgrades during the quarter

    came in much lower at `492cr compared to `1,466cr in 1QFY2013. Consequently,

    the gross and net NPA levels increased significantly, on an absolute basis, by 40.4%

    and 60.3%, qoq respectively. Going ahead, the management expects slippages to

    continue in-line with the slowing economy. The bank restructured ~`2,770cr during

    the quarter, thereby taking its outstanding restructured book to `27,852cr.

    The banks valuations are currently at a low of 0.8x FY2014

    ABV compared to its eight year range of 1.01.6x and median of 1.4x, due to the

    asset quality concerns facing the sector, which are likely to persist for the next few

    quarters for lack of visible macro-economic catalyst for improvement in the near term.

    We have adjusted our estimates and target price downwards to factor in the

    continued asset quality deterioration. The bank structurally has lower cost of depositsthan peers and has cyclically already experienced relatively higher asset quality pain

    than peers. That said, valuation-wise, the stock trades at even below the lower end of

    its historical range, factoring in most of the fundamental concerns.

    % chg 39.3 13.6 13.6 17.7

    % chg 13.5 10.2 (6.3) 21.7

    NIM (%) 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.3

    P/E (x) 5.4 5.3 5.6 4.6

    P/ABV (x) 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8

    RoA (%) 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.0

    RoE (%) 24.4 21.1 16.3 17.3

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    CMP `757

    Target Price `843

    Investment Period 12 Months

    Stock Info

    Sector Banking

    Market Cap (` cr) 25,676

    Beta 1.1

    52 Week High / Low 1091/659

    Avg. Daily Volume 96,898

    Face Value (`) 10

    BSE Sensex 18,636

    Nifty 5,666

    Reuters Code PNBK.BO

    Bloomberg Code PNB@IN

    Shareholding Pattern (%)

    Promoters 56.1

    MF / Banks / Indian Fls 20.6

    FII / NRIs / OCBs 17.4

    Indian Public / Others 5.9

    Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

    Sensex 10.7 4.7 16.1

    PNB 5.7 (21.3) (9.8)

    022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808

    [email protected]

    022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847

    [email protected]

    022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872

    [email protected]

    Performance Highlights

    2QFY2013 Result Update | Banking

    October 29, 2012

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    Punjab National Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update

    October 29, 2012 2

    Exhibit 1:2QFY2013 performance

    - on Advances / Bills 7,987 8,197 (2.6) 7,045 13.4 16,184 13,621 18.8- on investments 2,311 2,283 1.2 1,852 24.8 4,594 3,538 29.8

    - on balance with RBI & others 55 54 1.4 48 14.1 110 82 33.5

    - on others 68 11 514.2 7 936.6 79 26 197.8

    Other income excl. treasury 765 1,030 (25.7) 784 (2.4) 1,795 1,694 6.0

    - Fee Income 475 666 (28.7) 477 (0.4) 1,141 1,075 6.1

    - Treasury Income incl. MF Div. 140 136 2.9 105 33.3 276 279 (1.1)

    - Recov. from written off a/cs 60 87 (31.0) 68 (11.8) 147 177 (16.9)

    - Others 230 277 (16.8) 239 (3.6) 507 442 14.9

    - Employee expenses 1,426 1,420 0.5 1,240 15.0 2,846 2,453 16.0

    - Other Opex 596 601 (0.8) 573 3.9 1,196 1,086 10.2

    - Provisions for NPAs 1,140 900 26.7 319 257.4 130.5

    - Other Provisions (66) 132 (149.9) 391 (116.9) (56.3)

    Effective Tax Rate (%) 27.0 31.1 (415)bp 33.7 (673)bp 29.3 32.0 (275)bp

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:2QFY2013 Actual vs Angel estimatesNet interest income 3,649 3,746 (2.6)

    Other income 905 1,075 (15.8)

    Operating expenses 2,022 2,042 (1.0)

    Provisions & cont. 1,074 988 8.7

    PBT 1,459 1,791 (18.5)

    Prov. for taxes 393 581 (32.3)

    Source: Company, Angel Research

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    Punjab National Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update

    October 29, 2012 3

    Exhibit 3:2QFY2013 performance analysisAdvances (`cr) 294,747 294,468 0.1 249,020 18.4

    Deposits (`cr) 400,747 385,355 4.0 341,783 17.3Credit-to-Deposit Ratio (%) 73.5 76.4 (287)bp 72.9 69bp

    Current deposits (`cr) 28,040 25,723 9.0 23,531 19.2

    Saving deposits (`cr) 115,389 107,425 7.4 100,491 14.8

    CASA deposits (` cr) 143,429 133,148 7.7 124,022 15.6

    Reported CASA ratio (%) 37.0 35.6 140bp 37.1 (10)bp

    CAR (%) 11.7 12.6 (84)bp 12.2 (50)bp

    Tier 1 CAR (%) 8.7 9.3 (61)bp 8.4 35bp

    Cost of deposits 6.9 7.0 (7)bp 6.5 39bp

    Yield on advances 11.1 11.5 (43)bp 11.9 (83)bp

    Yield on investments 7.9 7.9 (6)bp 7.8 8bp

    Yield on funds 8.9 9.1 (26)bp 9.0 (14)bp

    Cost of funds 5.8 5.9 (16)bp 5.5 23bp

    Reported NIM 3.5 3.6 (10)bp 4.0 (45)bp

    Cost-to-income ratio 44.4 41.6 283bp 41.8 262bp

    Gross NPAs (` cr) 14,024 9,988 40.4 5,150 172.3

    Gross NPAs (%) 4.5 3.3 112bp 2.1 241bp

    Net NPAs (`cr) 7,883 4,917 60.3 2,089 277.5

    Net NPAs (%) 2.7 1.7 101bp 0.8 185bp

    Provision Coverage Ratio (%) 54.3 62.8 (850)bp 75.1 (2077)bp

    Slippage ratio (%) 6.2 3.8 242bp 1.6 455bp

    Credit cost (%) 1.0 0.8 19bp 0.3 66bp

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Healthy business growth continues in 2QFY2013

    During 2QFY2013, the banks business grew at a healthy pace, with advances

    and deposits registering a growth of 18.4% and 17.3% yoy, respectively. Growth in

    advances was primarily on the back of increased advances to the services sector

    (growth of 45.8% yoy). Retail loan book for the bank increased by a healthy 20.3%

    yoy, as robust growth was witnessed in all segments viz- housing, auto and others.

    Overseas advances registered a growth of 62.1% yoy (partly on account of INR

    depreciation). As of 2QFY2013, the overseas loan book for the bank accounted

    for 9% of its total loan book. The banks commercial real estate exposure declined

    by 8.5% yoy during 2QFY2013.

    On the liabilities front, current deposits witnessed traction, with a healthy growth of

    19.2% yoy (9.0% sequentially), while growth in saving deposits was relatively lower

    at 14.8% yoy (7.4% qoq). Overall CASA deposits grew by 7.7% sequentially, much

    higher than the growth of 4.0% qoq registered in overall deposits. Consequently,

    the reported CASA ratio improved by 140bp qoq to 37.0%.

    During 2QFY2013, the bank shed around `2,079cr of high costing bulk deposits

    (including CDs). Consequentially, the banks share of bulk deposits (including

    CDs) reduced from 22.2% as of 1QFY2013 and 23.8% as of 2QFY2012 to 20.8%

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    Punjab National Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update

    October 29, 2012 4

    as of 2QFY2013. As per the management, ~80% of outstanding bulk deposits

    cost more than 9% and would be due for re-pricing in the next quarter. The

    management is expected to reduce its high cost bulk deposits portfolio to ~15% by

    FY2013, which though could lead to lower balance sheet growth, but would aidhigher NIMs.

    Exhibit 4:Traction in services and retail lending aids healthy loan book Gr.Agri 40,291 44,591 (9.6) 35,076 14.9

    Retail 29,745 29,280 1.6 24,732 20.3

    MSME 30,701 30,960 (0.8) 29,145 5.3

    Medium & Large Corporates 93,487 92,558 1.0 87,318 7.1

    Comm. Real Estate 9,473 9,759 (2.9) 10,353 (8.5)

    Services & Others 64,681 59,679 8.4 44,356 45.8

    Food credit 5,723 6,615 (13.5) 4,214 35.8

    Overseas advances 26,772 25,987 3.0 16,511 62.1

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 5:Business growth remains healthy

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 6:CASA ratio improve sequentially

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    NIMs decline by 10bp sequentiallyThe banks yield on advances declined by 43bp qoq, on account of a) interest

    reversal of `163cr during the quarter, b) full impact of base rate cut in May 2012

    and c) the banks policy of charging recently reduced rates for housing loan

    products to existing customers. Yield on investments for the bank also came in

    lower by 6bp sequentially to 7.9%. Overall, yield on funds declined by 26bp qoq

    to 8.9%. The banks cost of deposits decreased marginally by 7bp qoq to 6.9%.

    Consequently, the reported NIMs of the bank declined by 10bp qoq to 3.5%. The

    management has maintained its NIMs guidance of ~3.5% for FY2013.

    19.3

    18.7

    21.3

    21.2

    18.4

    25.0

    23.4

    21.3

    18.9

    17.3

    72.973.7

    77.4

    76.4

    73.5

    70.0

    72.0

    74.0

    76.0

    78.0

    -

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    30.0

    2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13

    Adv. yoy chg (%) Dep. yoy chg (%) CDR (%, RHS)

    36.3

    35.3

    35.3

    34.6

    35.8

    11.7 11.7 11.59.8

    15.6

    -

    10.0

    20.0

    20.0

    23.0

    26.0

    29.0

    32.0

    35.0

    38.0

    2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 1QFY13

    Calculated CASA ratio (%) CASA yoy growth (%, RHS)

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    Punjab National Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update

    October 29, 2012 5

    Exhibit 7:Yield on funds lower by 26bp sequentially

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 8:NIM declines by 10bp qoq

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Subdued performance on the non-interest income (excludingtreasury) front

    During 2QFY2013, the non-interest income (excluding treasury) de-grew by 2.4%

    yoy, due to flat performance on the fee income front and lower recoveries.

    Commission, exchange and brokerage (CEB) income for the bank remained flat

    on a yoy basis, as a 14.3% yoy growth in the LC/LG (letter of credit/ letter of

    guarantee) income was offset by a 20.8% yoy decline in the processing fees

    income stream. The bank has started selling life policies of MetLife from November

    and has seen healthy traction in income on this front. Recoveries from written-off

    accounts declined by 11.8% yoy to `60cr, whereas income from forex transactions

    declined by 4.5% yoy to `127cr. Treasury income (including dividend from MFs)came in at `127cr compared to `133cr in 2QFY2012 and `212cr in 1QFY2013.

    Overall, the non-interest income came in `905cr, registering a marginal growth of

    1.7% yoy.

    Exhibit 9:Growth in non-interest inc. aided by higher forex and CEB inc.CEB 475 666 (28.7) 477 (0.4)

    Treasury incl. MF Dividend 140 136 2.9 105 33.3

    Forex 127 212 (40.1) 133 (4.5)

    Recoveries 60 87 (31.0) 68 (11.8)

    Others 103 66 56.1 107 (3.7)

    Other income excl. treasury 765 1,030 (25.7) 784 (2.5)

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Slippages surge, amidst lower recoveries and/upgrades

    During 2QFY2013, the bank disappointed significantly on the asset quality front,

    with slippages of `4,544cr compared to `2,769cr in 1QFY2013 and `2,819 in

    4QFY2012. Annualized slippage ratio came in at 6.2% compared to 3.8% in

    1QFY2013 and 4.7% in 4QFY2012. Recoveries and upgrades during the quartercame in much lower at `492cr compared to `1,466cr in 1QFY2013.

    Consequently, gross and net NPA levels increased significantly, on an absolute

    9.019.18

    8.67

    9.13

    8.87

    7.00

    7.50

    8.00

    8.50

    9.00

    9.50

    2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13

    (%)

    3.953.88

    3.503.60

    3.50

    2.60

    2.80

    3.00

    3.20

    3.40

    3.60

    3.80

    4.00

    4.20

    2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13

    (%)

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    Punjab National Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update

    October 29, 2012 6

    basis, by 40.4% and 60.3%, qoq respectively. Going ahead, the management

    expects slippages to continue in-line with the slowing economy.

    Additionally, the bank restructured ~`2,770cr during the quarter (compared to

    `1,239cr restructured in 1QFY2013), thereby taking its outstanding restructuredbook, which is stated borrower-wise, to `27,852cr (9.4% of net advances). More

    than 50% of the incremental restructuring came from the infrastructure sector

    (which includes power). Other sectors that contributed to the incremental

    restructuring during the quarter included textiles, iron & steel and, drilling. Out of

    the outstanding restructured book, ~30.5% is power (majorly discoms). Slippages

    from the restructuring book for the bank have been ~18.5%, considering total

    slippages currently and outstanding restructured book as of 1HFY2012. The

    provisioning coverage ratio for the bank dipped sharply by 850bp qoq and

    2,077bp yoy to 54.3%.

    Exhibit 10:Slippages came in at a high of 6.2%

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 11:NPA ratios jump up on higher slippages

    Source: Company, Angel Research;

    Exhibit 12:Slippages surge, amidst lower recoveries/upgrades in 2QFY13Opening 9,988 8,720 14.5 4,894 104.1 4,379

    Additions 4,544 2,769 64.1 993 357.6 6,672

    Deductions 508 1,500 (66.1) 737 (31.0) 2,331

    - Write offs 16 34 (52.9) 18 (11.1) 126

    - Recoveries 384 570 (32.6) 513 (25.1) 1,675

    - Upgrades 108 896 (87.9) 206 (47.4) 530

    Closing 14,024 9,988 40.4 5,150 172.3 8,720

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Cost-to-income ratio up by 262bp yoy and 283bp qoq to 44.4%

    Operating expenses for the bank were higher by 11.5% on a yoy basis, on the

    back of 15.0% yoy increase in employee expenses (as provisions for employee

    benefits as per AS-15 increased by 23.3% yoy) and 3.9% yoy increase in other

    operating expenses. However, growth in operating income was modest at 4.9%

    yoy, which led the cost-to-income ratio to increase by 262bp yoy and 283bp qoq

    to 44.4%.

    1.6

    2.8

    4.7

    3.8

    6.2

    0.3

    0.6

    0.90.8

    1.0

    -

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1.2

    -

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13

    Slippages (%) Credit cost (%, RHS)

    2.1

    2.4

    2.9

    3.3

    4.5

    0.8

    1.1

    1.5

    1.7

    2.7

    75.170.0

    62.7 62.8

    54.3

    -

    10.0

    20.0

    30.0

    40.0

    50.0

    60.0

    70.0

    80.0

    -

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13

    Gross NPAs (%) Net NPAs (%) PCR (%, RHS)

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    Punjab National Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update

    October 29, 2012 7

    Exhibit 13:Steady branch expansion continues

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 14:Cost-to-income ratio spikes up on lower income

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Investment arguments

    Strong CASA legacy, but losing market share

    PNB has a structural advantage of having relatively better CASA ratio of 37.0% (as

    of 2QFY2013), which is driven by strong rural and semi-urban presence,

    especially in North India (total of 5,748 branches and 6,000+ ATMs). Although

    the high CASA ratio is expected to sustain the higher NIMs, the bank has been

    losing its market share like most other public sector banks on account of slow

    branch expansion and competition from private banks savings market share

    declined by 53bp to 7.4% during FY200812.

    Investment concerns

    Weak asset quality not surprising

    PNB was one of the highest risk-taking banks immediately post the Lehman crisis

    and initially, started delivering very high yield on assets and ROEs of as much as

    26%. For the last couple of years, we had been concerned that the inevitable

    seasoning of that book would lead to asset quality issues for the bank and that is

    what is getting increasingly reflected in the numbers.

    During FY2012, slippage ratio for the bank was the highest in the last four years at

    2.7%. In fact in 1HFY2013, the banks annualized slippage ratio has spiked upsharply to 4.2%. Taking into account the aggressive restructuring carried out in

    2HFY2012, the banks relatively higher exposure to risky sectors and the overall

    weak macro-economic environment, we remain cautious on the incremental asset

    quality pressures in the near term.

    Outlook and valuation

    The banks valuations are currently at a low of 0.8x FY2014 ABV compared to its

    eight year range of 1.01.6x and median of 1.4x, due to the asset quality concerns

    facing the sector, which are likely to persist for the next few quarters for lack of

    visible macro-economic catalyst for improvement in the near term. We haveadjusted our estimates and target price downwards to factor in the continued asset

    quality deterioration. The bank structurally has lower cost of deposits than peers

    and has cyclically already experienced relatively higher asset quality pain than

    5,3

    15

    5,3

    93

    5,6

    58

    5,6

    97

    5,7

    48

    5,619

    5,793

    6,0096,059

    6,005

    5,300

    5,400

    5,500

    5,600

    5,700

    5,800

    5,900

    6,000

    6,100

    5,000

    5,100

    5,200

    5,300

    5,400

    5,500

    5,600

    5,700

    5,800

    2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13

    Branches ATMs (RHS)

    41.8

    40.4

    36.0

    41.6

    44.4

    1.8 1.8

    1.5

    1.8 1.7

    -

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    -

    10.0

    20.0

    30.0

    40.0

    50.0

    2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13

    Cost-to-income ratio (%) Opex to average assets (%, RHS)

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    Punjab National Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update

    October 29, 2012 8

    peers. That said, valuation-wise, the stock trades at even below the lower end of its

    historical range factoring in most of the fundamental concerns.

    Exhibit 15:Key assumptions

    Credit growth 12.0 14.0 12.0 15.0

    Deposit growth 13.0 15.0 13.0 16.0

    CASA ratio 35.2 34.9 35.2 34.6

    NIMs 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3

    Other income growth 7.7 6.1 5.1 5.6

    Growth in staff expenses 20.0 12.0 20.0 12.0

    Growth in other expenses 12.0 12.0 7.0 10.0

    Slippages 3.2 2.9 4.3 3.3Coverage 65.0 70.0 60.0 65.0

    Source: Angel Research

    Exhibit 16:Change in estimates

    NII 15,408 15,236 (1.1) 17,902 17,939 0.2

    Non-interest income 4,526 4,416 (2.4) 4,803 4,662 (2.9)

    Operating expenses 8,221 8,107 (1.4) 9,207 9,031 (1.9)

    Provisions & cont. 4,295 5,005 16.5 5,151 5,322 3.3

    PBT 7,418 6,541 (11.8) 8,346 8,248 (1.2)

    Prov. for taxes 2,407 1,962 (18.5) 2,708 2,676 (1.2)

    Source: Angel Research

    Exhibit 17:P/ABV band

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    0

    400

    800

    1,200

    1,600

    2,000

    2,400

    A

    pr-04

    O

    ct-04

    A

    pr-05

    O

    ct-05

    A

    pr-06

    O

    ct-06

    A

    pr-07

    O

    ct-07

    A

    pr-08

    O

    ct-08

    A

    pr-09

    O

    ct-09

    A

    pr-10

    O

    ct-10

    A

    pr-11

    O

    ct-11

    A

    pr-12

    O

    ct-12

    Price (`) 0.5x 0.9x 1.3x 1.7x 2.1x

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    Punjab National Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update

    October 29, 2012 9

    Exhibit 18:Recommendation summary

    AxisBk Buy 1,222 1,476 20.7 1.7 2.0 8.9 16.0 1.6 20.2

    FedBk Neutral 486 - - 1.2 - 9.4 6.7 1.1 13.3

    HDFCBk Neutral 641 - - 3.6 - 17.8 27.9 1.9 22.0

    ICICIBk* Buy 1,069 1,270 18.9 1.7 2.0 12.9 21.7 1.5 15.7

    SIB Accumulate 22 25 11.0 0.9 1.1 5.8 4.2 0.9 16.9

    YesBk Buy 415 492 18.8 2.1 2.5 9.8 23.5 1.5 23.5

    AllBk Neutral 132 - - 0.5 - 3.6 (0.4) 0.9 15.7

    AndhBk Reduce 106 97 (8.5) 0.7 0.6 4.3 1.0 0.9 15.3

    BOB Accumulate 754 860 14.0 0.9 1.0 5.5 6.4 1.0 17.0

    BOI Accumulate 280 319 14.1 0.7 0.8 4.1 20.8 0.8 16.3

    BOM Neutral 53 - - 0.7 - 4.4 38.9 0.7 16.1

    CanBk Accumulate 421 449 6.5 0.8 0.8 4.9 7.2 0.9 15.3CentBk Neutral 71 - - 0.7 - 3.4 100.1 0.6 14.7

    CorpBk Accumulate 405 447 10.5 0.7 0.7 4.0 (2.2) 0.8 15.1

    DenaBk Neutral 107 - - 0.7 - 4.4 3.1 0.8 15.9

    IDBI# Accumulate 95 108 14.0 0.6 0.7 4.1 20.1 0.9 14.4

    IndBk Neutral 177 - - 0.6 - 4.2 2.8 1.1 16.3

    IOB Neutral 74 - - 0.5 - 3.6 24.5 0.6 13.3

    J&KBk Neutral 1,145 - - 1.0 - 6.1 6.5 1.3 17.7

    OBC Neutral 315 - - 0.7 - 4.8 29.0 0.9 14.4

    SBI* Accumulate 2,170 2,353 8.4 1.4 1.5 8.4 21.7 1.0 17.7

    SynBk Neutral 120 - - 0.7 - 4.4 11.5 0.7 16.6

    UcoBk Neutral 75 - - 0.8 - 4.6 7.9 0.6 14.4

    UnionBk Accumulate 201 226 12.6 0.7 0.8 4.3 19.8 0.8 16.3

    UtdBk Buy 65 78 19.3 0.5 0.6 2.9 20.7 0.7 16.2

    VijBk Neutral 55 - - 0.7 - 4.8 12.1 0.5 13.0

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF

    Company Background

    Punjab National Bank is the country's second-largest bank, with a balance sheet

    size of over `4.7lakh cr and a pan-India network of ~5,750 branches. The bank'snetwork is primarily spread over northern India, in Punjab, Haryana and Uttar

    Pradesh. Almost 62% of its branches are based in rural and semi-urban

    hinterland, which results in a large legacy of low-cost CASA deposits (at 37.0% of

    deposits, amongst the highest in the sector).

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    Income statement

    - YoY Growth (%) 27.0 20.6 39.3 13.6 13.6 17.7

    - YoY Growth (%) 46.2 23.6 0.1 16.3 5.1 5.6

    - YoY Growth (%) 32.1 21.5 27.6 14.2 11.6 15.0

    - YoY Growth (%) 19.3 13.2 33.6 10.0 15.8 11.4

    - YoY Growth (%) 43.4 27.5 23.6 17.2 8.8 17.5

    - YoY Growth (%) 38.1 44.9 75.3 43.6 39.9 6.3

    - YoY Growth (%) 44.5 24.0 11.2 7.2 (7.1) 26.1

    - as a % of PBT 35.1 33.9 32.5 30.6 30.0 32.4

    - YoY Growth (%) 50.9 26.4 13.5 10.2 (6.3) 21.7

    Share Capital 315 315 317 339 339 339Reserve & Surplus 14,338 17,408 21,192 27,478 31,071 35,421

    Deposits 209,761 249,330 312,899 379,588 428,935 497,565

    - Growth (%) 26.0 18.9 25.5 21.3 13.0 16.0

    Borrowings 4,374 8,572 20,399 26,074 28,332 32,695

    Tier 2 Capital 8,085 10,690 11,190 11,190 10,911 10,638

    Other Liab. & Prov. 10,045 10,318 12,328 13,524 15,533 17,804

    Cash Balances 17,058 18,328 23,777 18,493 19,302 19,903

    Bank Balances 4,355 5,146 5,914 10,335 11,619 13,409

    Investments 63,385 77,724 95,162 122,629 140,706 166,195

    Advances 154,703 186,601 242,107 293,775 329,028 378,382

    - Growth (%) 29.5 20.6 29.7 21.3 12.0 15.0

    Fixed Assets 2,397 2,513 3,106 3,169 3,456 3,868

    Other Assets 5,020 6,320 8,259 9,793 11,010 12,705

    - Growth (%) 24.1 20.1 27.5 21.1 12.4 15.4

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    Ratio analysis

    NIMs 3.3 3.2 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.3Cost to Income Ratio 42.3 39.4 41.3 39.7 41.3 40.0

    RoA 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.0

    RoE 25.8 26.6 24.4 21.1 16.3 17.3

    CASA Ratio 38.8 40.8 38.5 35.3 35.2 34.6

    Credit/Deposit Ratio 73.8 74.8 77.4 77.4 76.7 76.0

    CAR 12.6 14.2 12.4 12.6 12.3 11.8

    - Tier I 8.1 9.1 8.4 9.3 9.3 9.3

    Gross NPAs 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.9 4.9 5.8

    Net NPAs 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.4 2.4

    Slippages 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.7 4.3 3.3

    Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8

    Provision Coverage 89.5 81.2 73.2 62.7 60.0 65.0

    EPS 98.0 123.9 139.9 144.0 135.0 164.3

    ABVPS (75% cover.) 416.7 514.8 628.2 734.2 795.8 936.5

    DPS 20.0 22.0 22.0 21.8 25.0 31.0

    PER (x) 7.7 6.1 5.4 5.3 5.6 4.6

    P/ABVPS (x) 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8

    Dividend Yield 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.3 4.1

    NII 3.2 3.1 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.2

    (-) Prov. Exp. 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0

    Adj. NII 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.3

    Treasury 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0

    Int. Sens. Inc. 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.3

    Other Inc. 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8

    Op. Inc. 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.0 3.1

    Opex 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6PBT 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.5

    Taxes 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5

    Leverage 18.6 18.5 18.6 18.0 17.3 17.3

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    Disclosure of Interest Statement Punjab National Bank

    1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

    2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

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    4. Broking relationship with company covered No

    Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

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