italie : le chemin escarpé des réformes

7/21/2019 Italie : le chemin escarp des rformes

1/90

|HJR KE]JR MJ @JKBLFDPI

Beksehgmdtgek `umctdgrjjt rjmrjssjfjkt bekefgquj jk Jurepj

Gtdhgj ? hj bljfgk jsbdrp

mjs raerfjs

pdr Bldrhjs ]rettfdkk

^radbj mj Fgbljh ^`jrjdu


2/90

4

HJR KE]JR MJ @JKBLFDPI

Avrgjr 0>4:

Beksehgmdtgek `umctdgrjjk Jurepj

Gtdhgj ? Hj bljfgk jsbdrp

mjs raerfjspdr Bldrhjs ]rettfdkk


3/90

Gkstgtut mj hjktrjprgsj, 0>4:]eus mregts mj rjpremubtgek, mj trdmubtgek, mdmdptdtgek jt mjxbutgek

rsjrvs peur teus hjs pdys

Mgrjbtjur mj hd pu`hgbdtgek ? Armrgb Fekheugs-Ahgbgt, mhcu ckrdh mj hGkstgtut mj hjktrjprgsj


4/90

2Beksehgmdtgek ùmctdgrj jt rjmrjssjfjkt bekefgquj jk Jurepj

Dvdkt-prepes

Bj rdppert sgksbrgt mdks hj bdmrj muk creupj mj trdvdgh fgs jk phdbj pdr hGkstgtut mj

hjktrjprgsj jt prsgm pdr Fgbljh ^`jrjdu, prsgmjkt mlekkjur mj @K^ ^drg`ds, qug

sj mekkj peur eòjt mdkdhysjr mjs jxjfphjs bekbrjts mj rjmrjssjfjkts ùmctdgrjs

bekmugts jk Jurepj mjpugs hj mùt mj hd brgsj.

Tudtrj pdys, jk pdrtgbuhgjr, ekt t rjtjkus mdks hj bdmrj mj bjs trdvdux ? hj Peydufj-Zkg, hGrhdkmj, hGtdhgj jt hJspdckj. Ghs prsjktjkt jk jaajt uk pegkt beffuk ? seus hd

bektrdgktj mjs vkjfjkts ks mj hd brgsj, ghs ekt bldbuk jkcdc uk jaaert

mj beksehgmdtgek ùmctdgrj mj crdkmj dfphjur jt/eu sj sekt dttdqus dux e`stdbhjs

strubturjhs qug crjvdgjkt hd befptgtgvgt mj hjurs bekefgjs.

Du-mjh, heòjbtga mj bjttj srgj mj fekecrdplgjs jst trgphj ?

; gh sdcgt teut mdèrm mj mpdssjr hjs jxjfphjs bdkekgqujs mj hd Rumj jt mu

Bdkdmd, duoeurmlug mdts jt bekmugts mdks mjs bekmgtgeks pdrtgbuhgrjs (bektjxtjmj rjprgsj fekmgdhj, gkmpjkmdkbj fektdgrj) qug, sdks jk gkvdhgmjr hd mgfjksgekjxjfphdgrj, jk rjhdtgvgsjkt hd pertj 9

; gh sdcgt jksugtj mj fektrjr, rjèurs mj hd tlsj mkekdkt hjs pehgtgqujs

mj rgcujur ùmctdgrj, quj hegk mj sj trdmugrj pdr ukj dustrgt dvjuchj , hjs pehg-tgqujs bekmugtjs mdks hjs qudtrj pdys quj keus dveks rjtjkus mdks ketrj prgftrj

beffjkbjkt duoeurmlug mekkjr hjurs arugts tdkt mu bt mu rjmrjssjfjkt ùm-ctdgrj mj hd befptgtgvgt bekefgquj 9

; gh sdcgt jkfflk mj fjttrj jk dvdkt mjs tumjs mj bds mj raerfjs strubturjhhjs qug

peurrdgjkt trj trdkspesjs mdks ketrj pdys, jk pertdkt ukj dttjktgek pdrtgbuhgrjdux raerfjs mj htdt-prevgmjkbj jt dux bekmgtgeks pehgtgqujs mj bjs mjrkgrjs.


5/90

=

Reffdgrj

Dvdkt-prepes ........................................................................................................................................................................................................2

^radbj .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................7

Ryktlsj ................................................................................................................................................................................................................4:

Gktremubtgek ........................................................................................................................................................................................................43

4. HG]DHGJ H^PJZQJ MJ HD BPGRJ.....................................................................................................47

4.4. HG]DHGJ JR] JK]PJ MDKR HD BPGRJ DQJB ZKJ RG]ZD]GEK BEKEFGTZJ PJHD]GQJFJK]

MCPDMJ, FDPTZJ ^DP ZKJ ADG@HJ BEF^]G]GQG] J] ^DP HJ ^EGMR MJ HD MJ]]J

^Z@HGTZJ .............................................................................................................................47

4.4.4. HGtdhgj d bekku mdks hjs dkkjs qug ekt prbm hd brgsj ukj bregssdkbj bekefgquj adg`hj,

rjffjt mj sd bregssdkbj petjktgjhhj `dssj..................................................................................................................................47

4.4.0. Hd befptgtgvgt mj hbekefgj gtdhgjkkj sjst kjttjfjkt mcrdmj mdks hjs dkkjs qug ek

prbm hd brgsj............................................................................................................................................................................................... 0>

4.4.2 .Hbekefgj gtdhgjkkj jst jktrj mdks hd brgsj dvjb mj aertjs rgcgmgts tdkt sur hj fdrbl mu

trdvdgh quj sur hj fdrbl mjs gjks................................................................................................................................................ 00

4.4.=. Hj kgvjdu trs hjv mj hd mjttj pu`hgquj psj mj hekcuj mdtj sur hjs fflkdkbjs pu`hgqujs

gtdhgjkkjs ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................02

4.4.:. Hj pegms mjs mpjksjs pu`hgqujs jk Gtdhgj dvdkt hd brgsj tdgt rjhdtgvjfjkt hjv......................0:

4.0. HD BPGRJ D ^PEQETZ MJR ]JKRGEKR AEP]JR RZP HD MJ]]J REZQJPDGKJ J] MCPDM

HD BEF^]G]GQG] MJ HBEKEFGJ PJHHJ ...........................................................................0
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6/90

:Beksehgmdtgek ùmctdgrj jt rjmrjssjfjkt bekefgquj jk Jurepj

4.2. HD BPGRJ D ^PEQETZ ZKJ PBJRRGEK FDPTZJ J] ZKJ AEP]J LDZRRJ MZ BLFDCJ,

TZG EK] BEK]PG@Z DZCFJK]JP HD DZQPJ] J] HJR GKCDHG]R .................................2=

4.2.4. Hd brgsj d jktrdk ukj rbjssgek prehekcj, ukj aertj ducfjktdtgek mu blfdcj jt ukjkeuvjhhj mcrdmdtgek mj hd befptgtgvgt mu pdys ......................................................................2=

4.2.0. Hd brgsj d jktrdk ukj ldussj mj hd pduvrjt jt mjs gkcdhgts tjrrgtergdhjs ..................23

4.=. HD BPGRJ D JK]PDK ZKJ DZCFJK]D]GEK MJR M^JKRJR Z@HGTZJR, HD MCPDMD]GEK

MZ MAGBG] ^Z@HGB J] ZKJ LDZRRJ MJ HD MJ]]J ^Z@HGTZJ ................................................27

0. HJ PJMPJRRJFJK] @ZMCJ]DGPJ .............................................=20.4. HD BEKREHGMD]GEK @ZMC]DGPJ JK G]DHGJ D ] JAAJB]ZJ MJ FDKGPJ ]DPMGQJ J]

BEKBJK]PJ MDKR HJ ]JF^R, REZR HD ^PJRRGEK MJR FDPBLR .....................................=2

0.0. HD BEKREHGMD]GEK D ÊP] MJ FDKGPJ TZGHG@PJ RZP HJR PJBJ]]JR J] HJR

M^JKRJR ............................................................................................................................=:

0.0.4. Hjs ldussjs mjs rjbjttjs ekt rjpes sur hjs mgaarjktjs dssgjttjs fflsbdhjs dgksg quj sur hjs

prgvdtgsdtgeks ............................................................................................................................=1

0.0.0. Hjs dgssjs mjs mpjksjs ekt pert sur teutjs hjs befpesdktjs mj hdbtgek pu`hgquj ....:4

0.2. DZ ]E]DH, HD BEKREHGMD]GEK @ZMC]DGPJ PDHGRJ JK G]DHGJ D JPFGR MJ PMZGPJ

RGCKGAGBD]GQJFJK] HJ MAGBG] ^Z@HGB, FDGR RJR JAAJ]R EK] ] KJ]]JFJK] FEGKR

GFÊP]DK]R TZD]]JKMZ ....................................................................................................1>

2. HJR PJAEPFJR R]PZB]ZPJHHJR .............................................10

2.4. HJ RWR]FJ MJR PJ]PDG]JR G]DHGJK D ] PAEPF JK 0>44 EZP RDMD^]JP

HJR^PDKBJ MJ QGJ MJ HD Ê^ZHD]GEK J] ^DPD] DZOEZPMLZG REZ]JKD@HJ

HEKC ]JPFJ ...............................................................................................................................10

2.0. HG]DHGJ D PECPJRRGQJFJK] PAEPF REK FDPBL MZ ]PDQDGH, DAGK MDZCFJK]JP HD

AHJ\G@GHG] HJF@DZBLJ, MJ ADQEPGRJP ZKJ FJGHHJZPJ DMTZD]GEK MJR RDHDGPJR HD

^PEMZB]GQG] J] MDFHGEPJP HDBBEF^DCKJFJK] MJR MJFDKMJZPR MJF^HEG .................1=

2.0.4.Hd raerfj mu fdrbl mu trdvdgh bekmugtj jk 0>40 d pjrfgs mducfjktjr hd ffjxg`ghgt mumregt mu trdvdgh, sdks peur dutdkt jk èuhjvjrsjr hbekefgj ckrdhj......................................1=


7/90

1

2.0.0. Mjs dbberms kdtgekdux gktjrpreajssgekkjhs ekt pjrfgs mj precrjssjr mdkshdmqudtgek mjs sdhdgrjs hd premubtgvgt ................................................................................11

2.0.2. Hj sjrvgbj pu`hgb mj hjfpheg d t raerf peur pjrfjttrj ukj fjghhjurj beuvjrturj mjstrdvdghhjurs, fdgs hd pehgtgquj dbtgvj mj hjfpheg mjfjurj adg`hj ...............................................13

2.0.=. Hj Oe`s Dbt, jk beurs mj kcebgdtgek pdr hj ceuvjrkjfjkt gtdhgjk, mjvrdgt pjrfjttrj mj

ardkblgr ukj tdpj supphfjktdgrj mdks hd femjrkgsdtgek mu fdrbl mu trdvdgh ......................1

2.=. HJ CEZQJPKJFJK] D FGR JK ZQPJ ZKJ RPGJ MJ FJRZPJR QGRDK] DFHGEPJP

HJKQGPEKKJFJK] MJR DAADGPJR ........................................................................................32

2.:. HD PAEPFJ MJR GKR]G]Z]GEKR ÊHG]GTZJR KD]GEKDHJR J] ]JPPG]EPGDHJR MJQPDG]

D^ÊP]JP ^HZR MJ R]D@GHG] HD QGJ ÊHG]GTZJ, ADQEPGRJP HD BEK]GKZG] MJR PAEPFJR

J] ^JPFJ]]PJ MJR BEKEFGJR MJ R]PZB]ZPJ .................................................................3:

=. HJR BEKMG]GEKR EHG]GTZJR MJR PJAEPFJR .....................33

=.4. HGKR]D@GHG] MJ HD QGJ ÊHG]GTZJ G]DHGJKKJ D BEK]PG@Z HDCCPDQD]GEK MJ HD BPGRJ

MJ HD MJ]]J, FDGR HD FGRJ JK ^HDBJ MJ CEZQJPKJFJK]R ]JBLKGTZJR J] MZKGEK

KD]GEKDHJ RZGQGJ ^DP HDPPGQJ DZ ÊZQEGP MJ FD]]JE PJK_G EK] ^JPFGR HD BEKMZG]J MJ

HD ÊHG]GTZJ MDZR]PG] J] MJR PAEPFJR R]PZB]ZPJHHJR .........................................33

=.4.4.Hgkstd`ghgt pehgtgquj gklrjktj du systfj hjbterdh gtdhgjk sjst jxdbjr`j jk 0>44,bektrgùdkt du mbhjkbljfjkt mj hd brgsj mj hd mjttj ...............................................................33

=.4.0.

Hd fgsj jk phdbj mu ceuvjrkjfjkt tjblkgquj mj Fdrge Fektg, seutjku pdr ukj hdrcjfdoergt mjs pdrtgs, d pjrfgs hd fgsj jk uvrj mj hd pehgtgquj mdustrgt ................................37

=.4.2.Hjs hjbtgeks mj avrgjr 0>42 ekt t fdrqujs pdr hd fektj mu vetj bektjstdtdgrj,hdrcjfjkt m hd hdssgtumj mj hepgkgek adbj hdustrgt .........................................................

=.4.=.Hdrrgvj du peuvegr mj Fdttje Pjkzg jt sek hdrcj subbs dux hjbtgeks jurepjkkjsmekkjkt ukj dssgsj aertj hd bekmugtj mjs raerfjs strubturjhhjs jk advjur mj hd befptgtgvgt

qug bekstgtujkt hj bur mj sek precrdffj ..............................................................................42 ...................................................


8/90

3Beksehgmdtgek umctdgrj jt rjmrjssjfjkt bekefgquj jk Jurepj

BEKBHZRGEK ? HG]DHGJ D HD BPEGRJJ MJR BLJFGKR 5 ...........................


9/90

>3, hGtdhgj jst beksgmrj pdr bjrtdgks e`sjrvdtjurs beffj hleffj fdhdmjmj hJurepj. Du beurs mjs mgx dkkjs prbmjktjs, jhhj d bekku hd bregssdkbj mu ^G@

pdr ld`gtdkt hd phus adg`hj mj hd zekj jure ? hj ^G@ d precrjss mj 4,1% pdr dk bektrj

0,0% peur hd zekj. Rjs pdrts mj fdrbl mdks hjs jxpertdtgeks fekmgdhjs sj sekt sjk-

sg`hjfjkt rmugtjs. Rd befptgtgvgt sj mcrdmj jk rdgsek mj trs adg`hjs cdgks mj

premubtgvgt. Hj AFG sgtuj sd bregssdkbj petjktgjhhj uk kgvjdu preblj mj zre.

Bjttj sgtudtgek jst peur ukj pdrt gfputd`hj dux rgcgmgts mj sjs fdrbls mj `gjks jt

mj sjrvgbjs ?adg`hj bekburrjkbj jt trdkspdrjkbj gksuafflsdktj peur bjrtdgks fdrbls,

pegms mjs preajssgeks rchjfjktjs, Jhhj jst surteut hd beksqujkbj mjs mfflbgjkbjs

4. Ceem Gtdhy, @dm Gtdhy? Sly Gtdhy Fust Bekqujr Gts Mjfeks te Adbj tlj Auturj,@ghh Jffett, Wdhj Zkgvjrsgty ^rjss,0>40


10/90


^radbj

jt mjs rgcgmgts strubturjhhjs mu fdrbl mu trdvdgh ? pdr jxjfphj ukj aertj mudhgt mu

fdrbl jktrj hjs sdhdrgs mgspesdkt muk bektrdt murj gkmtjrfgkj jt hjs dutrjs 9

jt uk systfj mj fflxdtgek mjs sdhdgrjs maerfdkt hd rpdrtgtgek mjs rjvjkus mj hjktrj-prgsj du mtrgfjkt mjs bdpdbgts mdutefflkdkbjfjkt. Fdhcr sek jktrj mdks hd zekj

jure, hGtdhgj d beksjrv, jk fdtgrj mj sdhdgrjs, hjs ld`gtumjs qujhhj dvdgt beutufj mj

befpjksjr prgemgqujfjkt pdr mjs mvdhudtgeks mj hd hgrj. Hj tdux mjfpheg jst hj phus

adg`hj mj hd zekj jure ? :% mu ^G@ jk 4772. Bjrtjs

hjaaert mj beksehgmdtgek beksjktg hd sugtj mu trdgt mj Fddstrgblt gkstdhhj hj `umcjt

jk jxbmjkt prgfdgrj. Fdgs hd mjttj pu`hgquj sj sgtuj jkberj 4>2% mu ^G@ jk 0>>3.

Bjst quj hGtdhgj sj bdrdbtrgsj pdr uk kgvjdu hjv mj mpjksjs pu`hgqujs ? =>3, bektrj =:% jk feyjkkj peur hZkgek Jurepjkkj. Rjs mpjksjs sebgdhjs

sekt mdks hd feyjkkj jurepjkkj (03% mu ^G@), fdgs sjs mpjksjs mj rjtrdgtj sekt

jxtrfjfjkt hjvjs ? 42,4 % mu ^G@ - tregs pegkts mj phus quj hd feyjkkj. Rjs prh-

vjfjkts e`hgcdtegrjs sekt mj bj adgt gfpertdkts (=0% mu G@) jt ghs psjkt phus qudghhjurs

sur hjs jktrjprgsjs (4:% mu ^G@).

@rja, pdr hj rhj mj hJtdt mdks hbekefgj, sek femhj sebgdh, hj pegms mj sd mjttj

pu`hgquj jt hdaadgssjfjkt mj sd bregssdkbj petjktgjhhj jt mj sd befptgtgvgt qug jk

rsuhtjkt, hGtdhgj jst, jk 0>>3, mdks hd zekj jure, mdks ukj pesgtgek spbgfflquj, pju

adverd`hj.

0/ Htumj mtdghhj fdgs syktltgquj jaajbtuj pdr F. Bldrhjs ]rettfdkk peur hj creupjmj trdvdgh bekstgtu pdr hGkstgtut mj hjktrjprgsj jst rjfdrqud`hj. Jhhj pjrfjt mj `gjk

befprjkmrj hd sgtudtgek mj hGtdhgj dvdkt hd brgsj, hjs jaajts mj bjhhj-bg, hj rjmrjssjfjkt

`umctdgrj jt hjs raerfjs strubturjhhjs rdhgss dgksg quj hjurs bekmgtgeks pehgtgqujs.

^husgjurs jksjgckjfjkts sjk mcdcjkt.

; Hj prjfgjr jksjgckjfjkt, bjst quj hd brgsj pjut dvegr ukj ergcgkj pehgtgquj jtqudhers ukj rpeksj pehgtgquj megt hug trj dppertj.


11/90

4>

Gtdhgj ? Hj bljfgk jsbdrp mjs raerfjs

Hd brgsj mj hd mjttj pu`hgquj gtdhgjkkj jst trs spbgfflquj. Jk jaajt, beffj hgkmustrgj

`dkbdgrj ardkdgsj, hjs `dkqujs gtdhgjkkjs kj sekt pds fgsjs jk mdkcjr pdr hd brgsj

fflkdkbgrj fekmgdhj prevequj pdr hj pre`hfj mjs su`prgfjs, jt kj kbjssgtjktmekb pds mj mpjksjs pu`hgqujs. Bj sekt hd blutj `rutdhj mu ^G@ (- 4,0% jk 0>>>7) susbgt pdr hd rbjssgek fekmgdhj jt hd fektj mu blfdcj qug

hd dbbefpdckj (mj 1,3% >3 0>>7 9

jt gh jst rdfjk 2,1% ms 0>44, hjxbmjkt prgfdgrj rjstdkt prsjrv. Dhers peurqueg

ukj brgsj mj hd mjttj, du fghgju mj 0>44 5

Bjrtjs hj kgvjdu hjv mj hd mjttj pu`hgquj jst uk adbtjur gfpertdkt mjxphgbdtgek.

Gh prgvj hGtdhgj mj fdrcjs mj fdkuvrj. Fdgs bj qug prevequj hd brgsj, bjst qujhjs gkvjstgssjurs sj bekvdgkqujkt rutdhjfjkt du prgktjfps 0>44 quj hGtdhgj kjst

pds bdpd`hj mj fjttrj jk uvrj hjs raerfjs strubturjhhjs kbjssdgrjs.Hj adbtjur

mbhjkbldkt jst hd pjrtj mj brmg`ghgt mu ^rsgmjkt mu Beksjgh, mu adgt mj pre`hfjs

mj seutgjk mukj pdrtgj mj sd bedhgtgek jt mj tjrcgvjrsdtgeks adbj dux mbgsgeks gkmgs-

pjksd`hjs. Rur hjs fdrbls, hjs tdux mgktrt gtdhgjks 4> dks ducfjktjkt rdpgmj-

fjkt peur dhhjr du-mjh mj 3% jk odkvgjr 0>40. Hjs mpjksjs pu`hgqujs mpdssjkt

:4% mu ^G@, jt hj bektrhj mu mfflbgt kjfpblj pds hd mjttj mjxphesjr prs mj

42:% mu ^G@ jk 0>4=.

Rpbgfflquj jst dussg hd rdbtgek pehgtgquj bjttj brgsj. Hj ceuvjrkjfjkt mj Rghvge

@jrhusbekg tef`j dvdkt hd fflk mj 0>44, seus hd prjssgek mj hepgkgek, mjs gkvjstgs-

sjurs jt mjs rjspeksd`hjs bekefgqujs Gtdhgjks jt jurepjks. Zk ceuvjrkjfjkt

tjblkgquj mgrgc pdr Fdrge Fektg jst bekstgtu, qug fjt gffmgdtjfjkt jk uvrj uk

precrdffj mj raerfjs jt mjs fjsurjs mdustrgt qug daajbtjkt rdpgmjfjkt sd

pepuhdrgt.

^ugs vgjkkjkt hjs hjbtgeks. Hdrrgvj du peuvegr mj Fdttje Pjkzg, jt sek df`gtgjuxprecrdffj mj raerfjs strubturjhhjs, mjvrdgjkt pjrfjttrj mdfphgffljr hjs pehgtgqujs

jkcdcjs jt mj rjstdurjr hd befptgtgvgt mj hbekefgj.

; Hj mjuxgfj jksjgckjfjkt mj hd brgsj jst quuk trs crdkm pdys pjut jkcdcjrrdpgmjfjkt mj beksgmrd`hjs raerfjs strubturjhhjs.

- Hd phus df`gtgjusj d t bjhhj mjs fbdkgsfjs mj rjtrdgtjs qud rdhgsj hj

ceuvjrkjfjkt mj Fdrge Fektg.HGtdhgj d mserfdgs uk mjs systfjs hjs phusstd`hjs jt murd`hjs mj hJurepj. Zk rcgfj kdtgekdh betgsdtgeks mfflkgjs sdp-


12/90


^radbj

phgquj hjksjf`hj mj hd pepuhdtgek. Hjs bekmgtgeks mcj jt mj murj mj betg-

sdtgek sekt gkmjxjs sur hvehutgek mj hjsprdkbj mj vgj. Hcj feyjk mj mpdrt hd rjtrdgtj vd pdssjr mj 14 dks peur 0>>1-0>4> 1= dks jk 0>0>, 13 dks jk

0>=> jt 1< dks jk 0>:>. Hbekefgj tetdhj bufuhj hlergzek 0>1> jst vdhuj 1>% mu ^G@ 9

- Gfpertdktj jst hd raerfj mu fdrbl mu trdvdgh, dvjb ukj phus crdkmj ffjxg`g-hgt hjf`dublj, hercdkgsdtgek mukj fjghhjurj dmqudtgek mjs sdhdgrjs hdpremubtgvgt jt hdfhgerdtgek mj hdbbefpdckjfjkt mjs mjfdkmjurs mjfpheg.Hj Oe`s Dbt mekt hjs mbrjts megvjkt jkberj trj pu`hgs pdr hj ceuvjrkjfjkt mjFdttje Pjkzg mjvrdgt pjrfjttrj mj ardkblgr ukj keuvjhhj tdpj mdks hd femjrkg-

sdtgek mu fdrbl. Fdgs sjs jaajts kj sj ajrekt sjktgr qu feyjk tjrfj ? hj tduxmj blfdcj mjvrdgt sj fdgktjkgr uk kgvjdu hjv, fdhcr hgkffjxgek bekstdtj

jk mbjf`rj 0>4=. Mdks sjs mjrkgrjs prvgsgeks, hd beffgssgek jurepjkkj

prvegt dgksg ukj std`ghgsdtgek mu tdux mj blfdcj 40,4:, dvdkt ukjhcrj dfhgerdtgek jk 0>41 (40,1%).

- Jk bj qug bekbjrkj hd hg`rdhgsdtgek mjs fdrbls mjs `gjks jt mjs sjrvgbjs,Fdrge Fektg dvjb sek ceuvjrkjfjkt adgt mj hGtdhgj hj hdèrdtegrj mjs raerfjsprbekgsjs jk Ardkbj jk 0>>< pdr hd Beffgssgek peur hd hg`rdtgek mj hd

bregssdkbj prsgmj pdr Odbqujs Dttdhg, jt mekt gh dvdgt hug-ffj t fjf`rj.Gh adgt trdmugrj hj rdppert jk gtdhgjk jt hug mekkj ukj pradbj (dvjb Ardkbjsbe

@dssdkgkg). Hj ceuvjrkjfjkt mbgmj hd hg`jrt mlerdgrj meuvjrturj peur hjsbeffjrbjs, hd supprjssgek mjs rjstrgbtgeks cecrdplgqujs hjxjrbgbj mdbtgvg-

ts beffjrbgdhjs, hd supprjssgek mjs tdrgas rchjfjkts peur hjs sjrvgbjs

preajssgekkjhs eu jkberj hdutergsdtgek mj hd vjktj mj fmgbdfjkts sdks ermek-kdkbj jk mjlers mjs pldrfdbgjs

- Hd mjrkgrj raerfj bekbjrkj hercdkgsdtgek gkstgtutgekkjhhj jt tjrrgtergdhj mupdys.Metj muk fghhjajughhj dmfgkgstrdtga qug kjst pds sdks rdppjhjr hj ktrj,hGtdhgj jst jk pdssj mdèhgr hqugvdhjkt mj ketrj mpdrtjfjkt, jt mj rjmgstrgùjr

hj peuvegr dux ftrepehjs. Hd raerfj mu Rkdt jkvgsdcj mjvrdgt hug adgrj pjrmrjsek peuvegr hcgshdtga, qug d t uk gfpertdkt adbtjur mj `hebdcj jt rmugrj mrds-

tgqujfjkt hj kef`rj mj sjs hus.

; Hj tregsgfj jksjgckjfjkt, jkfflk, jst hd kbjssgt mj bekoucujr raerfjs strub-turjhhjs jt rmubtgek mu mfflbgt. D bjt cdrm, gh adut sgtujr mdks sek bektjxtj hj m`dtjktrj hj ceuvjrkjfjkt gtdhgjk jt hd Beffgssgek Jurepjkkj sur hjs mfflbgts. ]eut


13/90

40


mdèrm, pdrbj quj hjs pehgtgqujs mjs ceuvjrkjfjkts prbmjkts jt jk pdrtgbuhgjrmj FF. Fektg jt ]rjfektg ekt pjrfgs hGtdhgj mj sertgr mj hd prebmurj mj mffl-bgt jxbjssga ms fdg 0>42.Rgh jst phus femjstj quj bjux mj hGrhdkmj, mj hJspdckjeu mu Peydufj-Zkg - teus bjs pdys qug pdrtdgjkt mukj sgtudtgek ùmctdgrj mdvdkt0>>< phus sdgkj hjaaert strubturjh rdhgs pdr hGtdhgj sur sjs fflkdkbjs pu`hgqujsjst rjh. Jk tfegckjkt hd prebmurj mu kek rjfphdbjfjkt mjs dcjkts mj hd aekb-tgek pu`hgquj pdrtdkt hd rjtrdgtj (dvjb uk rdtge hgfgt uk sur bgkq jktrj 0>40 jt0>4=), eu hd rmubtgek mj hd rfukrdtgek mjs aekbtgekkdgrjs(sjuhjfjkt pdrtgrmuk bjrtdgk kgvjdu). Rurteut hjs eòjbtgas mj rmubtgek mj mpjksjs pu`hgqujs ektt strgbtjfjkt tjkus peur hjs mbgsgeks mj 0>44, jt hj ceuvjrkjfjkt d gkgtg ukvrdg precrdffj mj rjvuj ckrdhj mjs mpjksjs ms 0>40, pugs keff uk bef-fgssdgrj bj tgtrj ms 0>42, dvjb mjs peuvegrs tjkmus jt peur tregs dks.

Hjxjfphj gtdhgjk fektrj dgksg quj hjs raerfjs mj strubturj, sg jhhjs sekt kbjs-

sdgrjs, kj sekt pds suafflsdktjs. Hjur gfpdbt kj sjrd jk jaajt vgsg`hj sur hjs fflkdkbjs

pu`hgqujs du trdvjrs mj hdbbhrdtgek mj hd bregssdkbj qujhhjs advergsjkt qu

feyjk, vegrj hekc tjrfj. Er hj kgvjdu mj hd mjttj pu`hgquj gtdhgjkkj jst tjh qugh kj

pjrfjt pds mj tjrcgvjrsjr.Hd beksehgmdtgek mjs fflkdkbjs pu`hgqujs mjvrd trj peur-

sugvgj. Mdutdkt phus quj sg hj mfflbgt pu`hgb d t su`stdktgjhhjfjkt rmugt, hgfpdbt

jaajbtga mjs fjsurjs mj beksehgmdtgek d t kjttjfjkt gkargjur dux prvgsgeks,

fdhcr ukj `dgssj mjs mpjksjs suprgjurj dux dttjktjs, pdrbj quj hd `dgssj mjs

rjbjttjs d t hgfgtj pdr hd mcrdmdtgek mu bektjxtj bekefgquj. Gh vd mekb adhhegr

peursugvrj hjaaert.

*

* *

Hd brgsj, jt hjs pehgtgqujs mj rjmrjssjfjkt jkcdcjs peur y adgrj adbj, ekt kdturjhhjfjkt

uk prgx peur hbekefgj jt hd sebgt gtdhgjkkjs. Hj ^G@ sjst bektrdbt mj 7% mjpugs hj

mùt mj hd brgsj jt hd mjttj pu`hgquj d ducfjkt mj phus mj 2> pegkts peur dttjgkmrj

42=,7% mu ^G@ jk 0>4=. Hj blfdcj jst pdss mj 1,3% 40,0% mj 0>>< 0>42. Gh d

dttjgkt hj kgvjdu rjberm mj 42,2% jk kevjf`rj 0>4=, dvdkt mj rjffujr hj fegs sugvdkt

40,7 %. Hd brgsj d jktrdgk ukj ldussj mj hd pduvrjt jt mjs gkcdhgts tjrrgtergdhjs. Jk

uk fet, hGtdhgj dttjkm jkberj hjs `gjkadgts mjs raerfjs jkcdcjs jt mu rjmrjssjfjkt

ùmctdgrj rdhgs. Jt hj Ceuvjrkjfjkt sdgt quj hjaaert mjvrd trj peursugvg hekc tjrfj.


14/90


^radbj

Hj ojukj ^rsgmjkt mu Beksjgh gtdhgjk jk jst `gjk beksbgjkt ? gh vgjkt mj adgrj subbmjr

sek precrdffj mj bjkt oeurs, uk bldkbgjr bhdgr jt prbgs ? hdcjkmd mjs fghhj oeurs .

Hjxprgjkbj gtdhgjkkj jst rgblj mjksjgckjfjkts. Fdgs gh jk jst uk qug hjfpertj sur

teus hjs dutrjs. Zk crdkm pdys trs jkmjtt kj pjut sj pjrfjttrj mj pjrmrj hd bekffldkbj

mjs gkvjstgssjurs. Gh megt mfektrjr qugh d hd vehekt jt hd bdpdbgt mj sj raerfjr,

qugh jk dbbjptj hjs rgsqujs pehgtgqujs.Gh megt peur bjhd mbgmjr jt bekmugrj tjfps

hjs raerfjs strubturjhhjs jt hjs doustjfjkts `umctdgrjs fdkgajstjfjkt kbjssdgrjs.

Fgbljh ^`jrjdu

^rsgmjkt mlekkjur mj @K^ ^drg`ds

^rsgmjkt mu creupj mj trdvdgh mj hGkstgtut mj hjktrjprgsj sur hd beksehgmdtgek `umctdgrj

jk Jurepj


15/90


16/90

4:Beksehgmdtgek umctdgrj jt rjmrjssjfjkt bekefgquj jk Jurepj

Ryktlsj

HGtdhgj jst jktrj mdks hd brgsj fflkdkbgrj jk 0>>< dvjb ukj sgtudtgek bekefgquj

pju adverd`hj.Jhhj jst hj pdys mj hd zekj jure qug d bekku hd bregssdkbj hd phus adg`hj

du beurs mj hd mbjkkgj qug d prbm hd brgsj (4,1 % pdr dk jktrj 4773 jt 0>>3, bektrj

0,0 % peur hd zekj jure). Du beurs mj bjttj prgemj, hd befptgtgvgt mj hGtdhgj sjst

cdhjfjkt aertjfjkt mcrdmj,dvjb mj adg`hjs cdgks mj premubtgvgt jt uk bet mjfdgk-muvrj hjv qug ekt mcrdm sjs pjraerfdkbjs hjxpertdtgek. Hj pegms mj hd

mjttj pu`hgquj psj cdhjfjkt aertjfjkt, jt mj hekcuj mdtj, sur hj pdys. Ruprgjurj

4>> % mu ^G@ mjpugs hj mùt mjs dkkjs 477>, hd mjttj pu`hgquj ebbdsgekkj ukj

heurmj bldrcj, qug d`ser`j : % mu ùmcjt mj htdt.

Hd brgsj bekefgquj jt fflkdkbgrj d ardpp hGtdhgj jk mjux tjfps. Hdrcjfjkt pdrckj

pdr hd brgsj gffe`ghgrj jt hd blutj mjs su`prgfjs, hGtdhgj d teutjaegs bekku ms 0>>7

uk aert rdhjktgssjfjkt mj sek dbtgvgt bekefgquj, dvjb ketdffjkt ukj blutj `rutdhj

mj sd premubtgek gkmustrgjhhj. Hd sgtudtgek mj hGtdhgj sjst kjttjfjkt dccrdvj jk 0>44,

dvjb hj mbhjkbljfjkt mukj brgsj mj hd mjttj seuvjrdgkj. Hjs tdux mj hd mjttj gtdhgjkkj

sj sekt jkvehs du beurs mj hdkkj 0>44, hj tdux mgx dks mpdssdkt hjs 3 % hd fflk

mj hdkkj 0>44, rjfftdkt hgkqugtumj mjs gkvjstgssjurs sur hd bdpdbgt mu pdys

rdhgsjr hjs jaaerts mj beksehgmdtgek ùmctdgrj jt mj raerfj strubturjhhj kbjssdgrjs

peur cdrdktgr hd seutjkd`ghgt mj sd mjttj.

HGtdhgj d dgksg bekku ukj meu`hj rbjssgek,mdèrm jk 0>>>7, pugs jk 0>40-0>4= ?

du tetdh, hj ^G@ gtdhgjk sjst bektrdbt mj prs mj 7 % mjpugs hj mùt mj hd brgsj bekefgquj,bektrj 4,3 % peur hjksjf hj mj hd zekj jure. Hj blfdcj d meu h, pdssdkt mj 1,3 % 40,7 %.

Bjttj sgtudtgek d pjs sur hjs fflkdkbjs pu`hgqujs ? hj mfflbgt sjst brjus mj fdkgrj femrj

:,= % mu ^G@ jk 0>>7, dvdkt mj rjtreuvjr uk kgvjdu preblj mj 2 % pdrtgr mj 0>40. Fdgs

hd mjttj pu hgquj d bekku ukj ducfjktdtgek trs aertj, pdssdkt mj 4>2,: % jk 0>>3 42=,7 %

jk 0>4=.

Hd beksehgmdtgek ùmctdgrj jst gktjrvjkuj pdrtgr mj 0>44, seus hd prjssgek mjs

fdrbls jt mj hZkgek jurepjkkj. Jhhj d pert mdvdktdcj sur hjs rjbjttjs quj sur hjs

mpjksjs, peur uk jaaert strubturjh tetdh mj 0,7 % mu ^G@ jktrj 0>>7 jt 0>42, bj qug


17/90

41


d pjrfgs du pdys mj sertgr mj hd prebmurj peur mfflbgt jxbjssga ms 0>42. Hjaaert sur

hjs rjbjttjs d bekmugt ducfjktjr aertjfjkt hd prjssgek fflsbdhj sur hd bekseffdtgek

jt hgffe`ghgjr, teut jk bljrbldkt mgfgkujr hj bet mu trdvdgh, dfflk mj kj pds mcrdmjrhd befptgtgvgt mu pdys. Mjs rjsseurbjs jxbjptgekkjhhjs ekt cdhjfjkt t fe`ghgsjs

vgd hd vjktj mj pdrtgbgpdtgeks jt mj `gjks gffe`ghgjrs pu`hgbs. Hd `dgssj mjs mpjksjs

d fe`ghgs teus hjs kgvjdux mj hdmfgkgstrdtgek pu`hgquj. Htdt bjktrdh d t daajbt vgd

ukj mgfgkutgek mjs mpjksjs mj pjrsekkjh (- :,= % jktrj 0>4> jt 0>4=) rjpesdkt sur

hj cjh mjs rfukrdtgeks jt ukj aertj mgfgkutgek mjs rjbrutjfjkts mj aekbtgekkdgrjs,

dgksg quj vgd hd `dgssj mjs mpjksjs beurdktjs pdr hgktjrfmgdgrj muk prebjssus mj

spjkmgkc rjvgjw. Mjs bg`hjs mbekefgjs ekt cdhjfjkt t fflxjs dux behhjbtgvgts

hebdhjs jt dux dmfgkgstrdtgeks mj sburgt sebgdhj.

^husgjurs raerfjs strubturjhhjs gfpertdktjs ekt cdhjfjkt t jkcdcjs, dfflk

mdfhgerjr hd befptgtgvgt mu pdys.Hd raerfj mjs rjtrdgtjs, gktjrvjkuj jk 0>40, d

pjrfgs mgkmjxjr teus hjs pdrdftrjs mu systfj mj rjtrdgtj sur hjsprdkbj mj vgj, bj

qug hj rjkm pdrtgbuhgrjfjkt vgd`hj hekc tjrfj. Zkj raerfj mu fdrbl mu trdvdgh d

cdhjfjkt t jkcdcj jk 0>40, jt sj peursugt jk 0>4= dvjb hj Oe`s Dbt prsjkt pdr

Fdttje Pjkzg, mdks hj `ut mducfjktjr hd ffjxg`ghgt mjs bektrdts jt mj rjkmrj

hdbbefpdckjfjkt mjs mjfdkmjurs mjfpheg phus gkbhusga jt phus dbtga. Hd raerfj mu

fdrbl mjs `gjks d bekmugt hg`rdhgsjr aertjfjkt bjrtdgks sjbtjurs mj hbekefgj,

ketdffjkt hjs preajssgeks rchjfjktjs. Mj kef`rjusjs fjsurjs mj sgfphgfflbdtgek

jt mdfhgerdtgek mu bhgfdt mjs daadgrjs ekt cdhjfjkt t jkcdcjs. Jkfflk, ukj raerfj

mjs gkstgtutgeks bjktrdhjs jt tjrrgtergdhjs jst jk beurs mdmeptgek, qug mjvrdgt pjrfjttrj

mducfjktjr hd std`ghgt mu systfj pehgtgquj jt mj rdhgsjr mjs bekefgjs mj strubturj.

Hjs raerfjs ekt t fgsjs jk uvrj mdks ukj bekfflcurdtgek pehgtgquj jxbjptgekkjhhj.

Hd blutj mu ceuvjrkjfjkt @jrhusbekg jk 0>44 seus hd prjssgek mjs fdrbls d jk jaajt

jktrdk hd fgsj jk phdbj muk ceuvjrkjfjkt tjblkgquj, mgrgc pdr Fdrge Fektg, qug d

pu fjttrj jk uvrj hjs fjsurjs mdustrgt kbjssdgrjs. Hdrrgvj du peuvegr mj FdttjePjkzg, pertjur muk precrdffj df`gtgjux mj raerfjs strubturjhhjs, euvrj ukj keuvjhhj

ajktrj meppertukgt dfflk mj peursugvrj jt mdfphgffljr hjs raerfjs kbjssdgrjs hd

rjstdurdtgek mj hd befptgtgvgt mu pdys.


18/90


Gktremubtgek

Gktremubtgek

HGtdhgj, tregsgfj bekefgj mj hd zekj jure dvjb uk ^G@ mj 4 :1> fghhgdrms mjures jk

0>42, jst hekctjfps dppdruj `gjk mjs cdrms beffj hleffj fdhdmj mj hJurepj .

Dvjb ukj bregssdkbj adg`hj mjpugs mj kef`rjusjs dkkjs (4,1 % pdr dk jk feyjkkj

sur 4773-0>>3, bektrj 0,0 % peur hd zekj jure), ukj befptgtgvgt mcrdmj jt ukj mjttj

pu`hgquj suprgjurj 4>> % mu ^G@ mjpugs hj mùt mjs dkkjs 477>, hd sgtudtgekbekefgquj gtdhgjkkj pdrdt jk ja ajt pju adverd`hj.

êurtdkt, mjpugs hj mùt mj hdkkj 0>4=, hGtdhgj ceuvjrkj pdr Fdttje Pjkzg jst

seuvjkt prsjktj beffj uk femhj petjktgjh peur hd Ardkbj, mj pdr sd bdpdbgt

jkcdcjr mjs raerfjs beurdcjusjs. Bj rjvgrjfjkt mj pjrbjptgek gkvgtj sgktjrrecjr

sur hd fdkgrj mekt hGtdhgj d su trdvjrsjr hd brgsj bekefgquj jt fflkdkbgrj. ^jut-ek

rjhhjfjkt pdrhjr muk jxjfphj gtdhgjk 5

Daajbtj ms 0>>7 pdr hd `dgssj mj sek dbtgvgt bekefgquj, hGtdhgj d t ardppj mj

phjgk aeujt jk 0>44 pdr hd brgsj mjs mjttjs seuvjrdgkjs. Hd mffldkbj mjs fdrbls d

adgt sjkvehjr hj tdux mj hd mjttj gtdhgjkkj (phus mj 3 % mgx dks du phus aer t mj hd brgsj),

jktrdkdkt uk rjteur mj hd rbjssgek. Du tetdh, hj ^G@ gtdhgjk sjst bektrdbt mj prs mj

7 % mjpugs hj mùt mj hd brgsj, jt hd mjttj pu`hgquj d ducfjkt mj phus mj 2> pegkts

mj ^G@, peur dttjgkmrj 42=,7 % mu ^G@ jk 0>4=.

Adbj bjttj sgtudtgek mcrdmj, hj ceuvjrkjfjkt gtdhgjk d su dcgr dvjb mtjrfgkdtgek

peur dssdgkgr hjs fflkdkbjs pu`hgqujs. Hd beksehgmdtgek ùmctdgrj d pjrfgs mj rdhgsjruk jaaert strubturjh mj 0,7 % mu ^G@ sur hd prgemj 0>4>-0>42, teut jk rergjktdkt hj

systfj fflsbdh dfflk mj mgfgkujr hj bet mu trdvdgh qug psj sur hd befptgtgvgt.

Du-mjh mj hd beksehgmdtgek ùmctdgrj, hGtdhgj d jkcdc ms 0>40 mjs raerfjs

strubturjhhjs, peur rjkmrj murd`hj hj aekbtgekkjfjkt mj sek systfj mj rjtrdgtjs,

dfhgerjr hj aekbtgekkjfjkt mj sek fdrbl mu trdvdgh jt mj sek fdrbl mjs `gjks jt

sjrvgbjs, sgfphgffljr hd vgj mjs jktrjprgsjs jt dfhgerjr hj aekbtgekkjfjkt mj sjs

gkstgtutgeks pu`hgqujs. Bj feuvjfjkt sjst dbbhr du beurs mj hdkkj 0>4= dvjb


19/90

44= jt hj blfdcj bektgkuj ducfjktjr. Mj

kef`rjusjs raerfjs jkcdcjs, tjhhjs quj bjhhj mu fdrbl mu trdvdgh eu bjhhj mjs

gkstgtutgeks, dttjkmjkt jkberj hjur fgsj jk uvrj. Htumj mj hd trdojbtegrj gtdhgjkkj

mdks hd brgsj dppdrdt ms hers gktrjssdktj, bdr jhhj ghhustrj hd bdpdbgt bekoucujr hd

beksehgmdtgek mjs fflkdkbjs pu`hgqujs dvjb hjs raerfjs strubturjhhjs, mdks uk pdys qug

pdrtdcj dvjb hd Ardkbj gjk mjs adg`hjssjs, beffjkbjr pdr hj madut mj befptgtgvgt.

^eur dutdkt, sjuh hdvjkgr mgrd sg hGtdhgj pjut rjhhjfjkt trj rgcj jk jxjfphj.

4. Ojdk-Fdrb Qgtterg, ^eurqueg hGtdhgj jst hj vrdg leffj fdhdmj mj hJurepj , Hjs bles, = ebte`rj 0>42.


20/90

Beksehgmdtgek `umctdgrj jt rjmrjssjfjkt bekefgquj jk Jurepj 47

hGtdhgj hprjuvj mj hd brgsj

4.4. HG]DHGJJR]JK]PJMDKRHDBPGRJDQJBZKJRG]ZD]GEKBEKEFGTZJPJHD]GQJFJK]MCPDMJ, FDPTZJ^DPZKJADG@HJBEF^]G]GQG]J]^DPHJ^EGMRMJHDMJ]]J^Z@HGTZJ

4.4.4. HGtdhgj d bekku mdks hjs dkkjs qug ekt prbm hd brgsj ukj bregssdkbjbekefgquj adg`hj, rjffjt mj sd bregssdkbj petjktgjhhj `dssj

HGtdhgj d bekku, du beurs mj hd mbjkkgj qug d prbm hd brgsj bekefgquj

jt fflkdkbgrj, ukj bregssdkbj bekefgquj adg`hj.Jhhj jst dgksg hj pdys mj hd zekj jure

qug d bekku hd bregssdkbj mu ^G@ pdr ld`gtdkt hd phus adg`hj jktrj 4773 jt 0>>3.

Hd bregssdkbj dkkujhhj feyjkkj mu ^G@ gtdhgjk sjst dgksg hjvj, jktrj 4777 jt 0>>3,

4,1 % pdr dk, bektrj ukj feyjkkj mj 0,0 % peur hd zekj jure

Jvehutgek mjs mpjksjs pu`hgqujs jktrj 477: jt 0>>3 (jk % mu ^G@)

Reurbj ? EBMJ

Bjttj adg`hj bregssdkbj jaajbtgvj jst hj rjffjt mukjbregssdkbj petjktgjhhj trs adg`hj,

qug rsuhtj jk pdrtgbuhgjr mj mjux adbtjurs mj adg`hjssj mj hbekefgj gtdhgjkkj ?

7>

402

4::

4

4773 477< 4777 0>>> 0>>4 0>>0 0>>2 0>>= 0>>: 0>>1 0>>3

Dhhjfdckj JspdckjArdkbj GrhdkmjGtdhgj Peydufj-Zkg_ekj jure (43 pdys)

4


21/90

0>


; uk adg`hj gkvjstgssjfjkt mdks hmubdtgek jt hgkkevdtgek, qug hgfgtj hd bregssdkbj

mj hd premubtgvgt ckrdhj. Hjs mpjksjs mj rjbljrblj jt mvjheppjfjkt rjprsjk-tdgjkt, jk 0>40, 4,03 % mu ^G@ mj hGtdhgj, hegk mj hd feyjkkj mj hd zekj jure (0,43

%) jt d aertgerg mj hDhhjfdckj (0,7< %) eu mjs pdys sbdkmgkdvjs. Mj ffj, hjs m-pjksjs mmubdtgek rjprsjktjkt jk Gtdhgj =,0 % mu ^G@, kgvjdu hj phus adg`hj pdrfg

hjs crdkms pdys mj hd zekj jure jt jk-mjsseus mj hd feyjkkj mj hd zekj (: %). Hjs

pjraerfdkbjs mj hGtdhgj du bhdssjfjkt ^gsd sekt cdhjfjkt adg`hjs, bjhhj-bg sj bhds-sdkt jk 0>40 hd 20j phdbj, uk mjs rdkcs hjs fegks adverd`hjs mjs pdys mj hd zekj

jure 9

; ukj mfecrdplgj madverd`hj.Dvjb uk tdux mj abekmgt 4,= jkadkt pdr ajffj,

hgffgcrdtgek kj pdrvgjkt pds befpjksjr hd adg`hjssj mfecrdplgquj, sg `gjk qujhd pepuhdtgek jk cj mj trdvdghhjr d mgfgku jktrj 4773 jt 0>400.

Hd bregssdkbj petjktgjhhj mj hGtdhgj d dgksg bekstdffjkt mgfgku mjpugs hj m`ut mjs

dkkjs 0>>>, peur dttjgkmrj jk 0>>3 uk kgvjdu preblj mj >, sjhek hj AFG2.

4.4.0. Hd befptgtgvgt mj hbekefgj gtdhgjkkj sjst kjttjfjkt mcrdmj mdks hjsdkkjs qug ekt prbm hd brgsj

Hbekefgj gtdhgjkkj rjpesj sur ukj `dsj gkmustrgjhhj aertj, teurkj vjrs hjxpertdtgek.

Hj tgssu gkmustrgjh gtdhgjk jst befpes mj qujhqujs crdkms bldfpgeks kdtgekdux (Agdt,

JKG), fdgs surteut muk jksjf`hj trs mjksj mj ^FJ spbgdhgsjs, ercdkgsjs jk

rsjdux (rjtg mgfprjsj) eu jk bhustjrs du kgvjdu hebdh (mgstrjttg gkmustrgdhg).

Hbekefgj gtdhgjkkj d teutjaegs aertjfjkt pjrmu jk befptgtgvgt mjpugs hj m`ut mjs

dkkjs 477>. Hd pdrt mj fdrbl mj hGtdhgj mdks hjs jxpertdtgeks fekmgdhjs sjst dgksg

bekstdffjkt mcrdmj, ffj sg hj pdys jst pdrvjku beksjrvjr ukj `dhdkbj

beffjrbgdhj qughg`rj, vegrj jxbmjktdgrj, du beurs mjs mjrkgrjs dkkjs 2>,=fghhgdrms mjures mjxbmjkt beffjrbgdh jk 0>42 sjhek hGkstgtut kdtgekdh mjs stdtgstgqujs

(Gstdt) , hdrcjfjkt muj hd blutj mjs gfpertdtgeks hgj hd adg`hjssj mj hd mjfdkmj

gktrgjurj hd sugtj mj hd brgsj.

0. Reurbj ? EBMJ.

2. AFG, Beuktry rjpert ke 4=/04=.


22/90



^drt mj hGtdhgj mdks hjs jxpertdtgeks fekmgdhjs (477>-0>42) jk %

Reurbj ? Beffgssgek jurepjkkj, Dfjbe.

Mj adgt, hGtdhgj d bekku mjpugs hj m`ut mjs dkkjs 477> ukj aertj mcrdmdtgek mj sd

befptgtgvgt. Du beurs mj hd mbjkkgj qug d prbm hd brgsj, hGtdhgj jst dgksg huk mjs

pdys mj hd zekj jure qug d rdhgs hjs phus adg`hjs cdgks mj premubtgvgt (fjsurs pdr

hj ^G@ pdr ljurj trdvdghhj).

^G@ pdr ljurj trdvdghhj (`dsj 4>> jk 0>>:)

Reurbj ? EBMJ.

Bjttj mcrdmdtgek mj hd befptgtgvgt mj hbekefgj gtdhgjkkj jst hdrcjfjkt muj dux

rgcgmgts gfpertdktjs sur hj fdrbl mu trdvdgh jt sur hj fdrbl mjs `gjks.

0,>> %

2,>> %

=,>> %

:,>> %

1,>> %

477> 4770 477= 4771 477< 0>>> 0>>0 0>>= 0>>1 0>>< 0>4> 0>40

3>

7>

4>>

44>

4773 477< 4777 0>>> 0>>4 0>>0 0>>2 0>>= 0>>: 0>>1 0>>3

Dhhjfdckj Jspdckj Ardkbj Grhdkmj Gtdhgj Peydufj-Zkg


23/90

00


4.4.2. Hbekefgj gtdhgjkkj jst jktrj mdks hd brgsj dvjb mj aertjs rgcgmgts tdkt surhj fdrbl mu trdvdgh quj sur hj fdrbl mjs `gjks

Hj madut mj befptgtgvgt mj hbekefgj gtdhgjkkj jst hdrcjfjkt m dux rgcgmgts

pjrsgstdktjs, tdkt sur hj fdrbl mu trdvdgh quj sur hj fdrbl mjs `gjks, qug kekt pds

t berrgcjs pdr mjs raerfjs strubturjhhjs mdks hjs dkkjs qug ekt prbm hd brgsj

bekefgquj jt fflkdkbgrj.

êur bj qug bekbjrkj jk prjfgjr hgju hjfdrbl mu trdvdgh, phusgjurs adg`hjssjs peuvdgjkt

trj e`sjrvjs jk Gtdhgj dvdkt hd brgsj ?

; ukj adg`hj gkbhusgvgt,dvjb uk tdux mjfpheg pdrtgbuhgrjfjkt `ds, jk pdrtgbuhgjrpeur hjs ojukjs jt hjs ajffjs. Jk 0>>3, hj tdux mjfpheg mj hGtdhgj, :>>, hjs

ceuvjrkjfjkts subbjssgas ekt jk jaajt br uk jksjf`hj mj bektrdts dtypgqujs , dsser-tgs mukj pretjbtgek trs gkargjurj dux BMG. Rg bjs bektrdts ekt ju uk jaajt pesgtga surhj tdux mj blfdcj, ghs ekt teutjaegs bektrgù brjr ukj preaekmj ardbturj jktrj

hjs sdhdrgs jk BMG jt bjux jk bektrdt dtypgquj qug kekt pds eu pju dbbs du brmgt

jt kj `kfflbgjkt pds mu systfj mj aerfdtgek bektgkuj kg mgkmjfkgsdtgek blfdcj 9

; mjsfemdhgts seus-eptgfdhjs mj fflxdtgek mjs sdhdgrjs,qug sekt jssjktgjhhjfjktkcebgs pdr `rdkblj du kgvjdu bjktrdh, bj qug kj pjrfjt pds mdmdptjr hjs sdhdgrjs

jk aekbtgek mj hdbtgvgt du kgvjdu mjs jktrjprgsjs 9

; uk begk fflsbdh sur hj trdvdgh trs gfpertdkt, qug shjvdgt =1,= % jk 0>>3, segt

4> pegkts du-mjssus mj hd feyjkkj mj hEBMJ 9

; ukj aertj bekffgbtudhgt mjs rjhdtgeks mj trdvdgh, beuphj ukj oustgbj beffjrbgdhjtrs pju jafflbdbj ? hj mhdg feyjk peur e`tjkgr uk oucjfjkt mjvdkt uk trgùkdh mj

beffjrbj shjvdgt dgksg jk Gtdhgj 4 04> oeurs jk 0>40, bektrj :4< oeurs jk feyjkkj

mdks hjs pdys mj hEBMJ 9uk pegms sgckgfflbdtga mu sjbtjur gkaerfjh,qug rjprsjktjjkvgrek 4> % mj hjfpheg tetdh, sjhek hEBMJ.

Hj fdrbl mjs `gjkstdgt cdhjfjkt fdrqu pdr ukj adg`hj jafflbgjkbj, rsuhtdkt

ketdffjkt ?


24/90



; mukj adg`hj bekburrjkbj jt mukj trdkspdrjkbj gksuafflsdktj sur bjrtdgks fdrbls,

ketdffjkt hkjrcgj jt hjs trdksperts eu hdpprevgsgekkjfjkt jk jdu 9

; mu pegms mjs preajssgeks rchjfjktjs, jk pdrtgbuhgjr mdks hj mefdgkj ourgmgqujjt mj hd sdkt.

Bjs gkjafflbgjkbj ekt pjs sur hd bregssdkbj jt hd befptgtgvgt mu pdys mdks hd prgemj

qug d prbm hd brgsj fflkdkbgrj, mdks uk bektjxtj rjkmu pdr dghhjurs mdutdkt phus

mgafflbghj pdr hd sgtudtgek murd`hjfjkt mcrdmj mjs fflkdkbjs pu`hgqujs gtdhgjkkjs.

4.4.=. Hj kgvjdu trs hjv mj hd mjttj pu`hgquj psj mj hekcuj mdtj sur hjs fflkdkbjs

pu`hgqujs gtdhgjkkjsHGtdhgj d d`erm hd brgsj fflkdkbgrj dvjb uk kgvjdu mj mjttj pu`hgquj pdrtgbuhgrjfjkt

hjv. Bjttj mjttj jst hj arugt mukj cjstgek mjs fflkdkbjs pu`hgqujs hdxgstj du beurs mjs

dkkjs 47 jt mj hd prjfgrj fegtg mjs dkkjs 477>, dvjb mjs mfflbgts pu`hgbs

bekstdffjkt suprgjurs 4> % mj 47>>, hd mjttj pu`hgquj d mgfgku mj 40 %,

crbj ketdffjkt ukj raerfj mu systfj mjs rjtrdgtjs, dgksg qu ukj fjghhjurj

fdtrgsj mjs mpjksjs mj sdkt jt mjs fflkdkbjs mjs behhjbtgvgts hebdhjs. Hjaaer t sjst

jksugtj kjttjfjkt rdhjktg dvjb hjktrj jk vgcujur mj hd fekkdgj ukgquj, qug d pjrfgs

ukj aertj mtjktj sur hj tdux seuvjrdgk. Hd mjttj gtdhgjkkj d dgksg `dgss mj : % jktrj

0>>4 jt 0>>3, peur dttjgkmrj 4>2 % mu ^G@.

vehutgek mj hd mjttj pu`hgquj gtdhgjkkj (47-0>>3), jk % mu ^G@


=> %

12 %

< %

42> %

47 47 0>>0 0>>= 0>>1


25/90

0=


Bj pegms mj hd mjttj pu`hgquj d bekstgtu peur hGtdhgj uk ldkmgbdp hjktrj mdks hd

brgsj, jt bj meu`hj tgtrj ?

; hj sjrvgbj mj hd mjttj adgt pjsjr ukj heurmj bektrdgktj sur hj `umcjt mj htdt.Dgksg, jk 0>>.

Rehmj prgfdgrj mu `umcjt gtdhgjk (jk % mu ^G@)


Gh bekvgjkt cdhjfjkt mj seuhgckjr quj hGtdhgj, bektrdgrjfjkt mdutrjs pdys mj hd zekj

jure beffj hJspdckj eu hGrhdkmj, kd pds bekku dvdkt hd brgsj mdbbregssjfjkt

jxbjssga mj hd mjttj prgvj. Bjhhj-bg shjvdgt jk 0>>3 443,7 % jk Gtdhgj, bektrj 000,1 %

jk Grhdkmj eu 04=,7 % jk Jspdckj.

>

4,3:

2,:

:,0:

3

477: 4771 4773 477< 4777 0>>> 0>>4 0>>0 0>>2 0>>= 0>>: 0>>1 0>>3 0>>


26/90

0:Beksehgmdtgek `umctdgrj jt rjmrjssjfjkt bekefgquj jk Jurepj


4.4.:. Hj pegms mjs mpjksjs pu`hgqujs jk Gtdhgj dvdkt hd brgsj tdgtrjhdtgvjfjkt hjv

4.4.:.4. Hj pegms mjs mpjksjs pu`hgqujs, rjhdtgvjfjkt hjv jk befpdrdgsekmj hd feyjkkj jurepjkkj, tdgt std`hj mdks hjs dkkjs qug ekt prbm hdbrgsj

Dvdkt hd brgsj, jk 0>>3, hGtdhgj beksdbrdgt =3,1 % mj sek G@ dux mpjksjs pu`hgqujs,

dhers quj hZJ qugkzj y beksdbrdgt jk feyjkkj =:,< % mj sek ^G@. Htdt gtdhgjk

pjsdgt mekb 4,< pegkts mj ^G@ mj fegks quj hd feyjkkj mj hZJ qugkzj.

tgtrj mj befpdrdgsek, hd Ardkbj beksdbrdgt hd ffj dkkj :0,3 % mj sek ^G@ dux

mpjksjs pu`hgqujs, dhers quj bjhhjs-bg kj rjprsjktdgjkt quj 21,3 % mu G@ jk Grhdkmj.HGtdhgj sj bdrdbtrgsj ms hers pdr uk pegms rjhdtgvjfjkt hjv mj hd mpjksj pu`hgquj,

sdks befptjr peur dutdkt pdrfg hjs pdys jurepjks e bjhhj-bg jst hj phus hjvj.

Mpjksjs pu`hgqujs jk 0>>3 (jk % mu ^G@)

Reurbj ? Jurestdt.


27/90

01


Hj pegms mj hd mpjksj pu`hgquj jk Gtdhgj sjxphgquj jk pdrtgbuhgjr pdr ?

; hj pegms gfpertdkt mjs sjrvgbjs ckrdux ,qug rjprsjktjkt 7 % mu ^G@ bektrj

3 % peur hd feyjkkj mj hZJ (jt sjuhjfjkt 2,2 % jk Grhdkmj eu =,1 % jk Jspdckj),jt rjfftjkt hd adg`hj jafflbgjkbj mj hdmfgkgstrdtgek gtdhgjkkj 9

; hj pegms sgckgfflbdtga mj hd pretjbtgek sebgdhj (lers sdkt), hg ketdffjkt duxmpjksjs mj rjtrdgtj.

; Hj pegms mj hd mpjksj pu`hgquj tdgt rjst rjhdtgvjfjkt bekstdkt jk Gtdhgj mdkshjs dkkjs qug ekt gffmgdtjfjkt prbm hd brgsj ?

; jktrj 477: jt 0>>>, hj pegms mj hd mpjksj pu`hgquj d sgckgfflbdtgvjfjkt mgfgku,

mdks hj bektjxtj mj beksehgmdtgek `umctdgrj hg hd prpdrdtgek mj hd fekkdgj

ukgquj. Hd mpjksj pu`hgquj jst dgksg pdssj mj :0,0 % =:,7 % mu ^G@, segt ukj`dgssj mj 1,2 % mu G@. Bjttj dgssj d pert prgkbgpdhjfjkt sur hjs sjrvgbjs ckrdux

(pdsss mj 4= % 7,1 % mu ^G@) jt sur hjs daadgrjs bekefgqujs (pdssjs mj =,= %

0,1 %) 9

; jktrj 0>>> jt 0>>3, hd mgsbgphgkj umctdgrj sjst rjhblj jt hd mpjksj pu`hgquj

d mj keuvjdu hcrjfjkt ducfjkt peur dttjgkmrj =3,1 % jk 0>>3.

4.4.:.0. Hj pegms mjs mpjksjs sebgdhjs tdgt preblj mj hd feyjkkj jure-pjkkj, fdgs fdrqu pdr hj pegms mjs mpjksjs mj rjtrdgtj

Hjs mpjksjs sebgdhjs gtdhgjkkjs (rjtrdgtj jt sdkt gkbhujs) tdgjkt prebljs mj hd

feyjkkj jurepjkkj dvdkt hd brgsj ? dhers qujhhjs rjprsjktdgjkt 01,: % mu G@ gtdhgjk

jk 0>>3, jhhjs befptdgjkt peur 01,< % mu ^G@ mdks hZJ qugkzj.

Hd mpjksj mj vgjghhjssj bekstgtudgt uk pestj mj mpjksjs trs gfpertdkt jk Gtdhgj jk

befpdrdgsek mjs dutrjs pdys jurepjks ? jk 0>>3, hGtdhgj beksdbrdgt 42,4 % mj sek^G@ dux mpjksjs mj vgjghhjssj, dhers quj hJspdckj ky beksdbrdgt quj 1,= % jt hZJ

qugkzj 4>,4 % 9

hgkvjrsj, hGtdhgj mpjksdgt kjttjfjkt fegks quj hjs dutrjs pdys jurepjks peur

bj qug bekbjrkj ?

; hd pehgtgquj adfghgdhj, dvjb 4,0 % mu G@ bektrj 0,4 % peur hd feyjkkj jurepjkkjjt 0,7 % peur hd Rumj. Bjbg sjxphgquj pdr hd adg`hjssj mjs mgspesgtgas mj pehgtgquj

adfghgdhj jk Gtdhgj (dhhebdtgeks sebgdhjs jt sehutgeks mj cdrmj mjkadkts), qug bektrg`uj

du fmgebrj tdux mjfpheg mjs ajffjs 9


28/90


29/90

044 (jk %)

Reurbj ? Jurestdt.

Ppu`hgquj tblquj

^dys-@ds

Mdkjfdri

Ardkbj

Rumj

Grhdkmj

Dhhjfdckj

Peydufj-Zkg

ZJ 0 4> 0> 2> =>

Dprs trdksajrts sebgduxDvdkt trdksajrts sebgdux


30/90



4.0. HDBPGRJD^PEQETZMJR]JKRGEKRAEP]JRRZPHDMJ]]JREZQJPDGKJ

J]MCPDMHDBEF^]G]GQG]MJHBEKEFGJPJHHJ

4.0.4. HGtdhgj d t pju daajbtj pdr hbhdtjfjkt mj hd `uhhj gffe`ghgrj jt fflkdk-bgrj, fdgs d bekku uk aert rdhjktgssjfjkt mj sek dbtgvgt bekefgquj

HGtdhgj, bektrdgrjfjkt mdutrjs pdys beffj hJspdckj eu hGrhdkmj, kd t quj pju

daajbtj pdr hbhdtjfjkt mj hd `uhhj gffe`ghgrj jt fflkdkbgrj jk 0>>>3

jt 0>>7 (- : %), dhers qughs bekkdgssdgjkt mdks hj ffj tjfps ukj `dgssj mj 2> % jk

Grhdkmj jt mj 41 % jk Jspdckj.

vehutgek mjs prgx mj hgffe`ghgjr jktrj 0>>3 jt 0>42 (`dsj 4>> jk 0>4>)

Reurbj ? Jurestdt.

Hj systfj `dkbdgrj gtdhgjk d cdhjfjkt trdvjrs hd prjfgrj pldsj mj hd brgsj

fflkdkbgrj, hgj dux su`prgfjs, sdks bekkdtrj mj adghhgtj mj crdkmj dfphjur.

Hjs `dkqujs gtdhgjkkjs mtjkdgjkt jk jaajt trs pju mj mrgvs mj brmgts gffe`ghgjrs,

bj qug jst m hd aegs hjur strubturj spbgfflquj, trs ergjktj vjrs hj fflkdkbjfjkt

mj hbekefgj hjs prts rjprsjktjkt 1> % mjs dbtgas mjs `dkqujs gtdhgjkkjs, bektrj

0< % jk Ardkbj jt jk Dhhjfdckj , jt ukj pehgtgquj mgkvjstgssjfjkt prumjktj. Jk

Gtdhgj, dubuk gktjrfmgdgrj fflkdkbgjr kd m rjbeurgr mjs dgmjs pu`hgqujs peur dssurjr

sek sduvjtdcj jt sjuhs qudtrj creupjs `dkbdgrjs ekt ouc eppertuk mj rjkaerbjr hjur

3>

70,:

44:

423,:

41>

0>>3 0>>< 0>>7 0>4> 0>44 0>40 0>42

Gtdhgj GrhdkmjJspdckj Peydufj-ZkgArdkbj


31/90

2>


preprj bdpgtdhgsdtgek du feyjk mfgssgeks hgfgtjs mgkstrufjkts ly`rgmjs seusbrgts

pdr hj fgkgstrj mj hbekefgj ? hjs ]rjfektg èkms . Bjs e`hgcdtgeks `dkbdgrjs

pjrptujhhjs, suèrmekkjs jt ly`rgmjs, vgsdgjkt dfhgerjr hd bdpgtdhgsdtgek Berj ]gjr4 mjs `dkqujs gtdhgjkkjs. Bjs tgtrjs ekt t seusbrgts pdr hj fgkgstrj mj hbekefgj

jt mjs fflkdkbjs gtdhgjk jktrj avrgjr 0>>7 jt hj 24 mbjf`rj 0>>7, peur uk fektdkt

tetdh mj =,>: fghhgdrms mjures (mekt 4,=: fghhgdrm mjures pdr @dkbe êpehdrj,

:>> fghhgeks mjures pdr @dkbd êpehdrj mg Fghdke, 4,7 fghhgdrm mjures pdr @dkbd Fektj

mjg dsblg mg Rgjkd jt 0>> fghhgeks mjures pdr Brjmgte Qdhtjhhgkjsj). HGtdhgj jst ms hers,

pdrfg hjs crdkms pdys mj hd zekj jure, uk mj bjux qug ekt m dppertjr hj fegks mj

seutgjk pu`hgb sjs `dkqujs jk befpdrdgsek ketdffjkt dvjb hj Peydufj-Zkg,

hDhhjfdckj eu hd Ardkbj, jt phus aertj rdgsek dvjb hjs pdys qug ekt bekku ukj brgsj

`dkbdgrj fdojurj beffj hGrhdkmj.

HGtdhgj d jk rjvdkblj t aertjfjkt daajbtj, ms hj mùt mj hd brgsj, pdr hj

rdhjktgssjfjkt mj hdbtgvgt bekefgquj. Hd premubtgek gkmustrgjhhj d mgfgku mj 47,0

% jktrj 0>>< jt 0>>7. ^drfg hjs crdkms pdys mj hd zekj jure, hGtdhgj jst dgksg, dprs

hJspdckj, bjhug qug d bekku hd blutj hd phus rdpgmj jt hd phus murd`hj mj sd premubtgek

gkmustrgjhhj du beurs mj hd brgsj.

^remubtgek gkmustrgjhhj (lers bekstrubtgek `dsj 4>> jk 0>>:)


3>

3,:

40>

0>>3 0>>< 0>>7 0>4> 0>44 0>40 0>42

Dhhjfdckj JspdckjArdkbj GtdhgjGrhdkmj Peydufj-Zkg


32/90



4.0.0. HGtdhgj d adgt adbj pdrtgr mj 0>44 uk rjcdgk mj mgafflbuhts bekefgqujshgjs dux tjksgeks sur sd mjttj seuvjrdgkj

HGtdhgj d t rjhdtgvjfjkt pdrckj pdr hjs tjksgeks sur hd mjttj seuvjrdgkj ousqudu

fghgju mj hdkkj 0>44.Hj tdux gtdhgjk mgx dks dvdgt bjrtjs hcrjfjkt ducfjkt

mjpugs hj m`ut mj hd brgsj fflkdkbgrj, fdgs hj sprjdm dvjb hj tdux mjs jfprukts mtdt

dhhjfdkm stdgt fdgktjku uk kgvjdu hgfgt (jktrj 4 jt 0 %). Jk jaajt, fdhcr hj kgvjdu

hjv mj hd mjttj pu`hgquj gtdhgjkkj, bjhhj-bg tdgt hdrcjfjkt beksgmrj beffj

seutjkd`hj mdks hd fjsurj e ?

; sd fdturgt jst hjvj (prs mj lugt dks hd fflk mj hdkkj 0>4>) jt jhhj jst hdr-

cjfjkt mtjkuj pdr mjs dbtjurs kdtgekdux (:: % mj hd mjttj jst mtjkuj pdr mjs

rsgmjkts jk 0>4>), bj qug mgfgkuj sd sjksg`ghgt dux ffubtudtgeks mj fdrbl 9

; hd mjttj mjs fkdcjs gtdhgjks jst hgfgtj, pdrfg hjs phus adg`hjs mjs pdys mj hd

zekj jure (7= % mu rjvjku mgspekg`hj kjt). Mu bt mjs dbtgas, hd pesgtgek fflkdkbgrjkjttj mjs fkdcjs rjprsjktdgt 4 % mu ^G@ gtdhgjk jk 0>>7, huk mjs kgvjdux hjs

phus lduts mj hd zekj jure, bekstgtu pdr dghhjurs mj phus mj mjux tgjrs mdbtgas rjhs

(aekbgjr jt gffe`ghgjr) mekt hd vdhjur jst pju daajbtj pdr hjs ffubtudtgeks mj fdrbl9

; hGtdhgj mcdcj mj fdkgrj qudsgfjkt bekstdktj mjpugs hd fflk mjs dkkjs 477> uk

jxbmjkt prgfdgrj, bj qug megt pjrfjttrj mj bektjkgr hvehutgek mj hd mjttj feyjk

tjrfj (ba. gkard).

Hd mcrdmdtgek mj hd pesgtgek gtdhgjkkj sur hjs fdrbls d teutjaegs m`ut hj 04 fdg

0>44 dvjb hd fgsj seus survjghhdkbj mu pdys pdr hjs dcjkbjs mj ketdtgek. Bjhhjs-bg ekt

dcg dprs hd pu`hgbdtgek mjs rsuhtdts bekefgqujs mu prjfgjr sjfjstrj 0>44 jt

hdkkekbj mukj adg`hj bregssdkbj peur hjxjrbgbj 0>44. Hd mffldkbj pjrsgstdktj mjs

fdrbls hcdrm mj Pefj sjxphgquj jk crdkmj pdrtgj pdr ukj gkqugtumj jk bj qug

bekbjrkj hd adg`hj dbtgvgt mu pdys, dgksg quj pdr hj bektjxtj ckrdh mj tjksgek du sjgk

mj hd zekj jure, fdgs cdhjfjkt pdr hj bektjxtj pehgtgquj gktrgjur jk Gtdhgj, fdrqu

pdr hj fdkquj mj brmg`ghgt mj Rghvge @jrhusbekg, daajbt hd aegs pdr mjs daadgrjsoumgbgdgrjs jt pdr hd pjrtj mu seutgjk mj bjrtdgks fjf`rjs mj sd bedhgtgek (ba. =.4.4).

Hjs tdux gtdhgjks mgx dks ekt aertjfjkt ducfjkt du beurs mj hdkkj 0>44, peur

mpdssjr hjs 3 % hjur pegkt hj phus ldut jk odkvgjr 0>40.

Hjs tjksgeks sur hd mjttj seuvjrdgkj gtdhgjkkj ekt jktrdk ukj gfpertdktj pjrtj

mj bekffldkbj mjs gkvjstgssjurs gktjrkdtgekdux,qug d prevequ ukj augtj mj bdpgtdux

mu tjrrgtegrj gtdhgjk. Hjs ffux sertdkts mgkvjstgssjfjkts trdkcjrs mj pertjajughhj jk

Gtdhgj ekt dgksg rjprsjkt 3> fghhgdrms mjures jk 0>44 jt 0=,< fghhgdrms mjures jk

0>40, sjhek hd @dkquj bjktrdhj gtdhgjkkj.


33/90

20


Bjttj tjksgek sur hd mjttj seuvjrdgkj d cdhjfjkt aertjfjkt daajbt hjs `dkqujs

gtdhgjkkjs, trs jxpesjs hd mjttj seuvjrdgkj kdtgekdhj (bjhhj-bg rjprsjktdgt =,: %

mj hjurs dbtgas hd fflk 0>44).Hd prjssgek sur hjs `dkqujs gtdhgjkkjs d t dbbjktuj mdks hj ffj tjfps pdr

hducfjktdtgek mjs brdkbjs grrbeuvrd`hjs (seaajrjkzj), qug sjst dbbhrj du beurs

mj hdkkj 0>44 dvjb hd mcrdmdtgek mj hd sgtudtgek bekefgquj. Hd pdrt mjs brdkbjs

grrbeuvrd`hjs mdks hj tetdh mjs prts jst dgksg pdssj mj 0,3 % fflk 0>>< 42.

Qehufj mj brdkbjs grrbeuvrd`hjs mtjku pdr hjs `dkqujs gtdhgjkkjs(`dsj 4>> jk mbjf`rj 0>>44, ek e`sjrvj dgksg ukj aertj mcrdmdtgek mjs bekmgtgeks mj brmgt dux

jktrjprgsjs gtdhgjkkjs, qug sj trdmugt hd aegs pdr ukj `dgssj mu vehufj mjs prts dux

jktrjprgsjs jt pdr ukj ducfjktdtgek mjs tdux mgktrt ( hd fflk mj hdkkj 0>42, hj tdux

mgktrt feyjk mjs keuvjdux prts dux jktrjprgsjs shjvdgt jk Gtdhgj 40< pegkts mj

4>>

43:

0:>

20:

=>>

40/24/>< 1/2>/>7 40/24/>7 1/2>/4> 40/24/4> 1/2>/44 40/24/44 1/2>/40 40/24/40 1/2>/42 40/24/42 1/2>/4=


34/90



`dsj mj phus qujk Dhhjfdckj jt 44> pegkts mj dsj mj phus qujk Ardkbj), hd bef`gkdgsek

mj bjs adbtjurs bektrg`udkt hd rjstrgbtgek mj hdbtgvgt bekefgquj.

Qehufj mj prts dux sebgts kek kdkbgrjs jk Gtdhgj(`dsj 4>> jk fdg 0>4>)

Reurbj ? @dkquj mGtdhgj.

Hjs tjksgeks sur hd mjttj gtdhgjkkj sj sekt precrjssgvjfjkt dpdgsjs pdrtgr mu m`utmj hdkkj 0>40 dvjb hj hdkbjfjkt mjs eprdtgeks mj rjfflkdkbjfjkt mj hekc tjrfj pdr

hd @BJ. Hj tdux mgx dks mj hd mjttj gtdhgjkkj d dgksg precrjssgvjfjkt mgfgku, peur

rjtreuvjr jk 0>42 sek kgvjdu mdvdkt hd brgsj. Hbekefgj gtdhgjkkj jst teutjaegs

mjfjurj murd`hjfjkt daajbtj pdr hd rbjssgek jk S (meu`hj-mgp) prevequj pdr

hd meu`hj brgsj bekefgquj jt mj hd mjttj seuvjrdgkj.

7:

70,:

4>1,0:

44>

:/24/4> 44/2>/4> :/24/44 44/2>/44 :/24/40 44/2>/40 :/24/42 44/2>/42 :/24/4=


35/90

2=


4.2. HDBPGRJD^PEQETZZKJPBJRRGEKFDPTZJJ]ZKJAEP]JLDZRRJMZ

BLFDCJ, TZGEK]BEK]PG@ZDZCFJK]JPHD^DZQPJ]J]HJRGKCDHG]R

4.2.4. Hd brgsj d jktrdk ukj rbjssgek prehekcj, ukj aertj ducfjktdtgek mublfdcj jt ukj keuvjhhj mcrdmdtgek mj hd befptgtgvgt mu pdys

Hd brgsj bekefgquj sjst trdmugtj jk Gtdhgj pdr ukj meu`hj rbjssgek ? hj ^G@ sjst

dgksg aertjfjkt bektrdbt jk 0>>7 (- :,: %), dvdkt mj rjpdrtgr hd ldussj jk 0>4>

(+ 4,3 %) jt 0>44 (+ >,= %). Hd bregssdkbj jst jksugtj rjmjvjkuj kjttjfjkt kcdtgvj

jk 0>40 (- 0,= %) jt 0>42 (-4,7 %). Hjs mjrkgrjs prvgsgeks mu AFG = gkmgqujkt quj

hd bregssdkbj mjvrdgt jkberj trj hcrjfjkt kcdtgvj jk 0>4= (- >,4 %), hd rjprgsj

kgktjrvjkdkt rjhhjfjkt qujk 0>4:. Du tetdh, hj ^G@ sjst mekb bektrdbt mj prsmj 7 % mjpugs hj m`ut mj hd brgsj bekefgquj,bektrj 4,3 % peur hjksjf`hj mj hd

zekj jure. Rjhek hGstdt, hjs tregs dkkjs mj rbjssgek qud bekkujs hbekefgj gtdhgjkkj

ekt rdfjk hd tdghhj mj bjttj mjrkgrj sjs kgvjdux mj hdkkj 0>>>. Gstdt prvegt

teutjaegs uk rj`ekm mj hd bregssdkbj mj hermrj mj >,: % jk 0>4:, pugs mj 4 % jk 0>41.

]dux mj bregssdkbj mu ^G@ rjh jk Gtdhgj (0>>42, jk %)

Reurbj ? Jurestdt.

=. AFG, Beuktry rjpert ke 4=/04=.

-1,> %

-=,: %

-2,> %

-4,: %

>,> %

4,: %

2,> %

0>>< 0>>7 0>4> 0>44 0>40 0>42


36/90

2:Beksehgmdtgek `umctdgrj jt rjmrjssjfjkt bekefgquj jk Jurepj


Hd brgsj d cdhjfjkt jktrdk ukj ldussj fdrquj mu blfdcj jk Gtdhgj. Bjhug-bg

d ducfjkt mj :,: % jktrj 0>>< jt 0>42, pdssdkt mj 1,3 % 40,0 %. Bjttj ducfjktdtgek

mjfjurj kjttjfjkt fegks spjbtdbuhdgrj quj bjhhj quekt pu bekkdtrj bjrtdgks pdysbeffj hJspdckj (+ 4< % jktrj 0>>3 jt 0>42) eu hGrhdkmj (+ 4> % jktrj 0>>3 jt 0>40),

fdgs jhhj d fdhcr teut ju uk gfpdbt gfpertdkt sur hd pepuhdtgek dbtgvj. HJspdckj jt

hGrhdkmj ekt teutjaegs russg gkvjrsjr hjur beur`j mu blfdcj, tdkmgs quj hj kef`rj

mj mjfdkmjurs mjfpheg d bektgku ducfjktjr jk Gtdhgj peur dttjgkmrj 42,= % mj hd

pepuhdtgek dbtgvj jk kevjf`rj 0>4=. Jk rdgsek mj hd mudhgt mu fdrbl mu trdvdgh,

hdoustjfjkt d pert jssjktgjhhjfjkt sur hjs bektrdts mj trdvdgh dtypgqujs, jt mekb sur

hjs bdtcergjs hjs phus ardcghjs mj hd pepuhdtgek (trdvdghhjurs fgcrdkts, ojukjs jt ajffjs).

Hj blfdcj mjs ojukjs mj fegks mj 0: dks d qudsgfjkt meu`h jk Gtdhgj jktrj 0>>3

jt 0>42, pdssdkt mj 0>,2 % => %. Jk kevjf`rj 0>4=, gh std`hgssdgt =2,7 %.

]dux mj blfdcj jk Gtdhgj (0>>42, jk %)

Reurbj ? Jurestdt.

Ek e`sjrvj pdr dghhjurs qujk Gtdhgj, bektrdgrjfjkt dux dutrjs pdys qug ekt bekku ukj

rbjssgek jt ukj aertj ducfjktdtgek mu blfdcj (Jspdckj, Grhdkmj, ^ertucdh), hjs

bets sdhdrgdux kj sj sekt pds dousts, jk rdgsek mjs rgcgmgts mu fdrbl mu trdvdgh.

Hd mcrdmdtgek mj hd befptgtgvgt mu pdys sjst ms hers peursugvgj, hjs bets sdhdrgdux

ukgtdgrjs bektgkudkt ducfjktjr pjkmdkt teutj hd murj mj hd brgsj.

1,>> %

3,3: %

7,:> %

44,0: %

42,>> %

0>>< 0>>7 0>4> 0>44 0>40 0>42


37/90

21


Bets ukgtdgrjs mj fdgk-muvrj (0>>3-0>42, `dsj 4>> jk 0>>:)

Reurbj ? EBMJ.

4>>

4>:

44>

44:

40>

0>>3 0>>< 0>>7 0>4> 0>44 0>40 0>42

Jspdckj ArdkbjGrhdkmj Gtdhgj^ertucdh


38/90



4.2.0. Hd brgsj d jktrdk ukj ldussj mj hd pduvrjt jt mjs gkcdhgts tjrrgtergdhjs

Hd ldussj mu blfdcj, beuphj dux rjstrgbtgeks `umctdgrjs (ba. gkard), d jktrdkukj`dgssj fdrquj mu rjvjku mgspekg`hj mjs fkdcjs jk Gtdhgjmurdkt hd brgsj. Bjhug-bg d

dgksg mgfgku mj < % sur hd prgemj 0>>3-0>40, segt kjttjfjkt phus quj mdks mdutrjs

pdys peurtdkt aertjfjkt teubls pdr hd brgsj ( tgtrj mjxjfphj, hj rjvjku mgspekg`hj

mjs fkdcjs kd mgfgku quj mj 2 % jk Jspdckj sur hd prgemj).

vehutgek dkkujhhj mu rjvjku mgspekg`hj mjs fkdcjs(0>>7-0>40, jk %)

Reurbj ? EBMJ.

Bjttj `dgssj mu rjvjku mgspekg`hj, beuphj hjafflbdbgt hgfgtj mu systfj sebgdh,

d jktrdk ukj ldussj mu rgsquj mj pduvrjt fektdgrj, pdss mj 4>44, segt ukj ldussj mj >,7 % jk tregs dks.

0>>3 0>>< 0>>7 0>4> 0>44 0>40

- %

-1,> %

-=,> %

-0,> %

>,> %

0,> %

=,> %

1,> %

%

Jspdckj Ardkbj Grhdkmj Gtdhgj

0>>30>>>70>4>0>44

0>40]etdh


39/90

2 % mj hd supjrfflbgj mj hd pkgksuhj jt

21 % mj hd pepuhdtgek, hGtdhgj mu Rum bektrg`uj peur fegks mj 0: % du ^G@ kdtgekdh.

Hd brgsj bekefgquj d bektrg u rjkaerbjr bjs bektrdstjs tjrrgtergdux ? ek e`sjrvj, sur hd prgemj0>>3-0>42, quj hj G@ d mgfgku mj 1,3 % mdks hj kerm mu pdys, fdgs mj 42,1 % mdks hj Rum.

Jktrj 0>>3 jt 0>40, hd bektrg utgek mu Fjzzecgerke du G@ kdtgekdh jst dgksg pdssj mj 0=,2 %

02,= %. Mj ffj, hj tdux mj blfdcj d ducfjkt mdks hj sum mu pdys mj = % mj phus quj

mdks hj Kerm : .

Ek e`sjrvj pdr dghhjurs quj hd brgsj d aertjfjkt rjhdkb hfgcrdtgek gtdhgjkkj, qug tdgt adg hj

mdks hj beurdkt mjs dkkjs 0>>>. Rg hjs Gtdhgjks tdgjkt :> >>> dvegr qugtt hj pdys jk 0>>0,

bj kef`rj jst pdss 4>1 >>> jk 0>40, segt ukj ducfjktdtgek mj 44: % jk mgx dks. Hd ldussj

hd phus aertj d t jkrjcgstrj jk 0>40, dvjb + 01 >>> pjrsekkjs

sekt mjs ojukjs mj fegks mj 2: dks1.

Ek bekstdtj jkfflk quj hd brgsj d bektrg u jxdbjr`jr hj sjktgfjkt mgksburgt bekefgquj jt

sebgdhj du sjgk mj hd pepuhdtgek gtdhgjkkj. Hj mjrkgjr rdppert sur hd sgtudtgek sebgdhj mu pdys, pu hg

hj : mbjf`rj 0>4= pdr hgkstgtut Bjksgs3, gkmgquj dgksg quj 1>% mjs gtdhgjks brdgckjkt mj tef`jr

mdks hd pduvrjt. Rjuhs 43% mjs gtdhgjks sj mbhdrjkt bekffldkts mdks hdvjkgr, bj tdux tef`dkt

ffj 40% bljz hjs 442.

3. Bjksgs,=4=.


40/90


41/90


42/90

=4Beksehgmdtgek `umctdgrj jt rjmrjssjfjkt bekefgquj jk Jurepj


Mbgt pu`hgb (0>>3-0>42) jk % mu ^G@

Reurbj ? Agsbdh Fekgter 0>4=, AFG, ebte`rj 0>4=.

Hdccrdvdtgek mu mfflbgt pu`hgb d jktrdk sek teur ukj ducfjktdtgek mj hd mjttj pu-

`hgquj.Dprs dvegr mgfgku mj 43 % mu ^G@ jktrj 477: jt 0>>3, hd mjttj pu`hgquj gtd-

hgjkkj d aertjfjkt ducfjkt murdkt hd brgsj peur dttjgkmrj 42=,7 % mu ^G@ jk 0>4=,

segt ukj ldussj mj 24,= % jktrj 0>>3 jt 0>4=. Hd mjttj gtdhgjkkj rjstj dgksg hd phus

hjvj mj hd zekj jure (jk % mu G@) mjrrgrj hd mjttj crjbquj, fdgs mjvrdgt sj std`ghgsjrjk 0>4: jt beffjkbjr mbretrj pdrtgr mj 0>41, sjhek hjs prvgsgeks mu ceuvjrkj -

fjkt gtdhgjk.

-40,>

-,

0>>3 0>>< 0>>7 0>4> 0>44 0>40 0>42

Ardkbj DhhjfdckjGtdhgj Jspdckj_ekj Jure Peydufj-Zkg


43/90

=0


Mjttj pu`hgquj (jk % mu ^G@)

Reurbj ? ^recrdffjs mj std`ghgt mj hGtdhgj (0>>7-0>4=).

4>0

444,:

404

42>,:

4=>

0>>3 0>>< 0>>7 0>4> 0>44 0>40 0>42 0>4=


44/90

Beksehgmdtgek ùmctdgrj jt rjmrjssjfjkt bekefgquj jk Jurepj =2

hj rjmrjssjfjkt ùmctdgrj

0.4. HDBEKREHGMD]GEK@ZMC]DGPJJKG]DHGJD]JAAJB]ZJMJFDKGPJ]DPMGQJJ]BEKBJK]PJMDKRHJ]JF^R, REZRHD^PJRRGEKMJRFDPBLR

Hd beksehgmdtgek ùmctdgrj jst gktjrvjkuj tdrmgvjfjkt jk Gtdhgj jk befpdrdgsek mj bjqug d pu trj e`sjrv mdks mdutrjs pdys. Hjssjktgjh mjs jaaerts d dgksg t beksjktg

pdrtgr mj ht 0>44 jt du beurs mj hdkkj 0>40, hd sugtj mjs aertjs prjssgeks

jxjrbjs pdr hjs fdrbls sur hd mjttj gtdhgjkkj prjssgeks hgjs ketdffjkt dux brdgktjs

jkcjkmrjs pdr hd`sjkbj mj raerfjs mdks hj pdys.

Jktrj 0>>7 jt 0>42, hGtdhgj d rdfjk sek mfflbgt ùmctdgrj mj :,= % 2 % mu ^G@, bj

qug rjprsjktj uk jaaert mj beksehgmdtgek ùmctdgrj mj 0,= %. Hj mfflbgt prgfdgrj, qug

shjvdgt - 4 % jk 0>>7, d dgksg t rser` ms hdkkj sugvdktj, jt hjxbmjkt prgfdgrj

dttjgckdgt 0 % mu ^G@ jk 0>42. Hjxbmjkt strubturjh prgfdgrj d t sjksg`hjfjkt

ducfjkt sur hd prgemj, pdssdkt mj >,1 % jk 0>>7 = % jk 0>42. Du tetdh, hjaaert

strubturjh rdhgs pdr hGtdhgj jktrj 0>>7 jt 0>42 sjst hjv 0,7 % mu ^G@.

Bjt jaaert d t trs hdrcjfjkt bekbjktr sur hjs dkkjs 0>44 0>42,dvjb uk pgb

mjaaert strubturjh jk 0>40 (4,: % mu ^G@). Hj AFG jstgfj quj hd beksehgmdtgek sj

peursugvrd mj fdkgrj femrj mdks hjs dkkjs vjkgr ? hjaaer t strubturjh sjrd kuh jk

0>4=, pugs cdh >,2 % mu ^G@ jk 0>4: jt >,: % mu ^G@ jk 0>41, jt kuh keuvjdu

jktrj 0>43 jt 0>47.

0


45/90

==


vehutgek mu mbgt jt jaaert strubturjh jk Gtdhgj(0>>7-0>42, jk % mu ^G@)

Reurbj ? AFG, Agsbdh Fekgter, ebte`rj 0>4=.

Hd beksehgmdtgek `umctdgrj rdhgsj d pjrfgs hGtdhgj mj adgrj pdssjr sek mfflbgt

`umctdgrj seus hd `drrj mjs 2 % ms 0>40 jt mj sertgr mj hd prebmurj mj mfflbgt jxbjssga ?

hd prebmurj euvjrtj sek jkbektrj d t bhesj jk fdg 0>42 pdr hd Beffgssgek

jurepjkkj.

]eutjaegs, bjt jaaert pdrdt jkberj gksuafflsdkt peur pjrfjttrj ukj mgfgkutgek rdpgmj

jt murd`hj mj hd mjttj pu`hgquj.Hj rdtge mj mfflbgt mjvrdgt, sjhek hjs preojbtgeks, rjstjr

gkargjur du sjugh mj 2 % du beurs mjs prebldgkjs dkkjs 9 hGtdhgj peurrdgt bjpjkmdkt

bektrjvjkgr dux rchjs jurepjkkjs rjhdtgvjs hd mjttj pu`hgquj. Jk vjrtu mj bjttjrchjfjktdtgek gktremugtj mdks hj berpus jurepjk pdr hj Rgx-^dbi, ukj prebmurj pjut

trj euvjrtj bektrj uk pdys fjf`rj mekt hj rdtge mjkmjttjfjkt jxbmj hj phdaekm mj

1> %, fegks qugh kj bekvjrcj vjrs bj sjugh uk rytlfj mekk. eur hGtdhgj, hj rjspjbt

mj bjttj rchj kbjssgtjrdgt mdttjgkmrj uk rdtge mjkmjttjfjkt gkargjur 401,: % mu

^G@ jk 0>43. Rg hj precrdffj mj std`ghgt mj hGtdhgj peur hdkkj 0>4= prvegt quj bj

sjugh segt rjspjbt, gh rjpesj teutjaegs sur mjs lypetlsjs eptgfgstjs bekbjrkdkt hd

bregssdkbj bekefgquj jt hgkffdtgek. Hj rjspjbt mj bjttj rchj peurrdgt dgksg kbjssgtjr

quj hGtdhgj rdhgsj du beurs mjs prebldgkjs dkkjs mjs jaaerts mj beksehgmdtgek

supphfjktdgrjs.

-1,>

-=,:

-2,>

-4,:

>,>

4,:

2,>

=,:

0>>7 0>4> 0>44 0>40 0>42

Magbgt umctdgrjMagbgt prgfdgrjMagbgt strubturjh prgfdgrjJaaert strubturjh

>,>


46/90

=:Beksehgmdtgek ùmctdgrj jt rjmrjssjfjkt bekefgquj jk Jurepj


0.0. HDBEKREHGMD]GEKDFE@GHGR^PGKBG^DHJFJK]HDLDZRRJMJRPJBJ]]JRJ], MDKR

ZKJFEGKMPJFJRZPJ, HD@DGRRJMJRM^JKRJR

Hd beksehgmdtgek umctdgrj gtdhgjkkj d pert mj fdkgrj msqughg`rj sur hjs rjbjttjs

qug ekt ducfjkt mj 4,< pegkt mj ^G@ jktrj 0>>7 jt 0>42, tdkmgs quj hjs mpjksjs

mgfgkudgjkt mj >,1 pegkt mj ^G@ sur hd ffj prgemj. HGtdhgj sj mgstgkcuj jk bjhd muk

pdys beffj hGrhdkmj, qug d adgt pertjr hjaaert fdoergtdgrjfjkt sur hjs mpjksjs, sdks

bekvjrcjr peur dutdkt dvjb hd Ardkbj, mekt hjaaer t rjpesj jxbhusgvjfjkt sur hd prgemj

sur ukj ldussj mjs prhvjfjkts. Jhhj sj phdbj dgksg mdks ukj sgtudtgek gktjrfmgdgrj,

jktrj hJspdckj jt hj êrtucdh.

Rg hek sdttdblj teutjaegs vdhujr hd befpesgtgek mj hjaaert ùmctdgrj jk fjsurdkt

bjs mjrkgjrs dcrcdts kek phus jk prepertgek mu ^G@, fdgs jk vdhjur kefgkdhj, hd pdrt

mjs prhvjfjkts e`hgcdtegrjs sdbbret jkberj du sjgk mj hjaaert gtdhgjk.

vehutgek mj hd pdrt mjs mpjksjs pu`hgqujs jt mjs rjbjttjs pu`hgqujsmdks hj ^G@ jktrj 0>>7 jt 0>42 (jk % mu ^G@)

Reurbj ? ^jrspjbtgvjs bekefgqujs mj hEBMJ, kevjf`rj 0>4=.

vehutgek mj hd pdrt mjs mpjksjs pu`hgqujs jt mjs rjbjttjs pu`hgqujsjxprgfjs jk vdhjur jktrj 0>>7 jt 0>42 (vdrgdtgek jk %)


47/90

=1


vehutgek mj hd pdrt mjs mpjksjs pu`hgqujs jt mjs rjbjttjs pu`hgqujs

jxprgfjs jk vdhjur pdr ld`gtdkt jktrj 0>>7 jt 0>42 (vdrgdtgek jk %)

0.0.4. Hjs ldussjs mjs rjbjttjs ekt rjpes sur hjs mgaarjktjs dssgjttjsfflsbdhjs dgksg quj sur hjs prgvdtgsdtgeks

0.0.4.4. Hd ldussj mj hd fflsbdhgt d t rdhgsj jk vgsdkt ukj rergjktdtgek mj hdbldrcj fflsbdhj mu trdvdgh vjrs hd bekseffdtgek jt hd preprgt

Hd beksehgmdtgek `umctdgrj gtdhgjkkj d rjpes peur ukj pdrt sgckgfflbdtgvj sur mjs

ldussjs mgfpts. He`ojbtga ckrdh mu ceuvjrkjfjkt gtdhgjk, trdvjrs bjttj beksehgmdtgek

fflsbdhj, d beksgst rmugrj hgfpesgtgek mu trdvdgh, sgckgfflbdtgvjfjkt suprgjurj bjhhj

mjs dutrjs pdys jurepjks hj tdux mgfpesgtgek gfphgbgtj mu trdvdgh shjvdgt =0,< %

jk Gtdhgj jk 0>40, bj qug jk adgt hj phus hjv mj hZkgek jurepjkkj , teut jk ducfjktdkt

hd tdxdtgek mj hd bekseffdtgek jt mj hgffe`ghgjr, mj fdkgrj advergsjr hd befptgtgvgt.

Hjs ldussjs mgfpts ekt dgksg rsuht prgkbgpdhjfjkt mjs vehutgeks sugvdktjs ?

; hj tdux stdkmdrm mj ]QD d t ducfjktm4 pegkt, pdssdkt mj 0> 04 % jksjptjf`rj 0>44. Hjs tdux rmugts sekt rjsts gkbldkcs. Hjs rjbjttjs supphfjk-

tdgrjs dttjkmujs mj bjttj ldussj tdgjkt vdhujs 3>> fghhgeks mjures peur 0>44,pugs =,0 fghhgdrms mjures pdr dk. Hd ]QD d jksugtj t ducfjktj m4 pegkt supph-

fjktdgrj jk ebte`rj 0>42, peur dttjgkmrj 00 % 9

; hjs mregts mdbbgsj sur hjs premugts kjrctgqujs (hjbtrgbgt jt jssjkbj) ekt tducfjkts jk 0>44, jk vuj mj mcdcjr mjs rjbjttjs supphfjktdgrjs ldutjur

mj 1 fghhgdrms mjures pdr dk befptjr mj 0>40 9

; ukj tdxj fukgbgpdhj ukgquj (GFZ) sur hd preprgt gffe`ghgrj d t gktremugtj befptjr mj 0>40. Bektrdgrjfjkt hd tdxj prbmjffjkt jxgstdktj (hGBG), jhhj jst

dpphgbd`hj teutjs hjs preprgts aekbgrjs, y befprgs bjhhjs qug sekt ebbups tgtrj

mj rsgmjkbj prgkbgpdhj pdr hjurs preprgtdgrjs jt hjs tjrrdgks kek bekstrugts. Hj tduxjst mj >,31 % mj hd vdhjur bdmdstrdhj, rmugt >,= % sgh sdcgt mukj rsgmjkbj prgk-

bgpdhj. Gh pjut jk eutrj trj femuh pdr hjs beffukjs. Zkj tdxj sur hgffe`ghgjr htrdkcjr (Gvgj) d cdhjfjkt t gktremugtj, dvjb uk tdux gmjktgquj hGFZ. ^dr dghhjurs,


48/90



ukj tdxj fukgbgpdhj sur hjs mbljts jt hjs sjrvgbjs (]drjs) d t gkstgtuj jk 0>42,

jk su`stgtutgek mj phusgjurs pjtgtjs tdxjs prbmjffjkt jxgstdktjs. Jkfflk, hjs vdhjursbdmdstrdhjs qug sjrvjkt mj `dsj du bdhbuh mjs gfpts aekbgjrs ekt t rjvdhergsjs.

Bjs fjsurjs mjvdgjkt rdppertjr jkvgrek 2: fghhgdrms mjures supphfjktdgrjs sur hdprgemj 0>40-0>4= (4> fghhgdrms mjures pdr dk peur hGFZ ms 0>40, 4 fghhgdrmmjures pdr dk peur hd ]drjs pdrtgr mj 0>42) 9

; hd tdxj spbgdhj sur hjs sebgts mj premubtgek jt mj beffjrbgdhgsdtgek mj ptrehjjt mj cdz(mgtj tdxj Pe`gk Leem ), gkstdurj jk 0>>,: %. Hj sjugh du-mjh muqujh jst dpphgqu bjt gfpt jst d`dgss, qudkt hug, mj

0: 4> fghhgeks mjures mj rjbjttjs. Bjttj fdoerdtgek megt rdppertjr htdt 4,40 jt 7>> fghhgeks mjures hjs dkkjs sugvdktjs 9

;

hj tdux mj `dsj mj hd bektrg`utgek rcgekdhj dmmgtgekkjhhj hgfpt sur hj rjvjkud t rjhjvmj >,7 % 4,02 % jk 0>40. Jk eutrj, ukj pessg`ghgt mj femuhdtgekmu tdux pdr hjs rcgeks d t gktremugtj. Bjttj fjsurj d rdppert 0,0 fghhgdrms

mjures pdr dk befptjr mj 0>40 9

; uk keuvjdu mgspesgtga mj tdxdtgek mjs rjvjkus mu bdpgtdh d t fgs jk phdbj.Zk gfpt ukgquj mj 0> % sur bjs rjvjkus sjst su`stgtu dux tdxdtgeks jxgstdktjs.

Hd fflsbdhgt sur hjs mpts `dkbdgrjs jt hjs befptjs pestdux d dgksg t d`dgssj

mj 03 % 0> %, dhers quj teus hjs dutrjs gkstrufjkts fflkdkbgjrs sekt tdxs ldutjurmj 0> %, bektrj 40,: % dupdrdvdkt. Rjuhs hjs tgtrjs pu`hgbs rjstjkt tdxs ldutjur

mj 40,: %. Bj mgspesgtga mjvdgt pjrfjttrj mducfjktjr hjs rjbjttjs mj htdtmj =,40 jt 0>4= 9

; hd ldussj mu mregt mj tgf`rj sur hjs befptjs beurdkts(30: fghhgeks mjures jk0>44, 4,2 fghhgdrm mjures jk 0>40 jt 2,< fghhgdrms mjures jk 0>4=) dgksg quj sur

hjs dbtgeks, hjs gkstrufjkts fflkdkbgjrs jt hjs premugts fflkdkbgjrs (peur uk fektdktmj 4,0 fghhgdrm mjures pdr dk jk 0>40 jt 0>42 jt 3>> fghhgeks mjures pdr dk

befptjr mj 0>4=) 9

; hd tdxj sur hjs trdksdbtgeks fflkdkbgrjs (tdxj ]e`gk) d t gktremugtj jk 0>42. Jhhjpertj sur hjs vjktjs mdbtgeks jt mj premugts mrgvs, jt rdppertjrd 4 fghhgdrm mjures

pdr dk.

Mdks hj ffj tjfps, hd tdxdtgek pjsdkt sur hj trdvdgh d t dhhcj. Mjs pessg`ghgts

mj mmubtg`ghgt mj hgfpt rcgekdh sur hjs dbtgvgts premubtgvjs (Grdp) ekt precrjssgvjfjkt

t fgsjs jk phdbj jktrj 0>44 jt 0>4=. Du tetdh, hjs jktrjprgsjs pjuvjkt mserfdgs

mmugrj 3 :>> jures pdr dk pdr sdhdrg jk bektrdt murj gkmtjrfgkj, jt ousqu 42

:>> jures sg hj sdhdrg jst ukj ajffj eu sgh d fegks mj 2: dks. Mdks hjs rcgeks mu

sum mj hGtdhgj, bjs fektdkts sekt perts rjspjbtgvjfjkt 4: >>> jt 04 >>> jures.

]regs fjsurjs supphfjktdgrjs ekt jk eutrj t dkkekbjs jk 0>4= pdr hj ceuvjrkjfjkt

mj Fdttje Pjkzg jt sekt gksbrgtjs mdks hd heg mj fflkdkbjs peur 0>4: ?


49/90

= fghhgdrms mjuresjk 0>4:. Hjs sdhdrgs mekt hj rjvjku dvdkt gfpt jst gkargjur 0: >>> jures pdr

dk rjbjvrekt uk brmgt mgfpt mj 1=> jures 9

; ukj rmubtgek supphfjktdgrj mj hGrdp peur hdkkj 0>4:, peur uk fektdkt tetdh

mj 1,: fghhgdrms mjures, qug pdssjrd pdr ?

- ukj rmubtgek mj 4> % mu tdux mj hGrdp 9- hd mmubtg`ghgt tetdhj mjs bets sdhdrgdux mu pjrsekkjh jf`dubl jk BMG

mj hd `dsj tdxd`hj.

; hjs jktrjprgsjs qug jf`dubljrekt jk BMG dvdkt hj 24 mbjf`rj 0>4: sj vjrrektbeksjktgr ukj jxekrdtgek mj bldrcjs sebgdhjs peur ukj murj mj tregs dks.

0.0.4.0. Hj rjkaerbjfjkt mj hd huttj bektrj hd ardumj fflsbdhj jt sebgdhj d pjrfgsmj behhjbtjr mjs rjbjttjs fflsbdhjs supphfjktdgrjs

Hdheurmgssjfjkt mjs prhvjfjkts e`hgcdtegrjs jk Gtdhgj sjst dbbefpdck mj fjsurjs

mjstgkjs rjkaerbjr hd huttj bektrj hd ardumj fflsbdhj.Hj fektdkt mjs seffjs kek

mbhdrjs du fflsb bldquj dkkj jst vdhu, jk jaajt, < % mu G@. eur bj qug bekbjrkj

jk pdrtgbuhgjr hd ]QD, hj fektdkt mjs rjbjttjs kek behhjbtjs shjvdgt jk Gtdhgj jk 0>44

0< % mu fektdkt tlergquj tetdh, uk mjs kgvjdux hjs phus hjvjs mdks teutj hZkgek

jurepjkkj40.

42.


50/90



Mjs fjsurjs mjstgkjs huttjr spbgfflqujfjkt bektrj hd ardumj ekt t fgsjs jk uvrj

ms 0>44, jt rjkaerbjs du beurs mjs dkkjs sugvdktjs. Bjs fjsurjs prvegjkt jk

pdrtgbuhgjr ?; hd`dgssjfjkt mu fektdkt fdxgfdh mj pdgjfjkt jk hgqugmj, mj : >>> 4 >>>jures, dvjb mjs sdkbtgeks peuvdkt dttjgkmrj ousqu => % mu fektdkt mj hd trdksdb-

tgek jk bds mj kek-rjspjbt 9

; uk rjkaerbjfjkt mjs sdkbtgeks hjkbektrj mjs jktrjprgsjs qug kfjttjkt pdsmj tgbijts mj bdgssj eu mj adbturjs, dvjb ketdffjkt ukj ajrfjturj mj hdbtgvgt

beffjrbgdhj mj tregs oeurs uk fegs jk aekbtgek mj hd crdvgt mj hgkardbtgek 9

; hd ckrdhgsdtgek mu pdgjfjkt pdr vgrjfjkt pdr hjs ercdkgsfjs pu`hgbs, jt he`hg-

cdtgek adgtj teutjs hjs jktrjprgsjs mdbbjptjr hjs pdgjfjkts pdr vgrjfjkt 9; uk murbgssjfjkt mj hd rprjssgek hjkbektrj mjs adussjs adbturjs 9

; hd hgfgtdtgek mj hd mmubtg`ghgt mgrjbtj mjs brmgts mj ]QD jt hj rjkaerbjfjkt mjhe`hgcdtgek mj mbhdrdtgek mj bjrtdgkjs eprdtgeks seufgsjs hd ]QD 9

hj rjkaerbjfjkt peur hjs td`hgssjfjkts fflkdkbgjrs mj he`hgcdtgek mj beffukgbdtgek

mgkaerfdtgeks hdmfgkgstrdtgek fflsbdhj.

Bjs fjsurjs ekt pdr dghhjurs t befphtjs pdr ukj rkevdtgek jt uk rjkaerbjfjkt

mjs ftlemjs mj bektrhj mjs dmfgkgstrdtgeks fflsbdhjs jt sebgdhjs. Hdcjkbj fflkdkbgrj

gtdhgjkkj (Dcjkzgd mjhhj Jktrdtj) jstgfj dgksg quj hd pehgtgquj mj huttj bektrj hd ardumj

d pjrfgs mj behhjbtjr mjs rjvjkus supphfjktdgrjs ldutjur mj 21,0 fghhgdrms mjures

sur hd prgemj 0>4>-0>40.

Dfflk mergjktjr husdcj mjs fektdkts supphfjktdgrjs behhjbts, uk aekms peur hd

rmubtgek mj hd prjssgek fflsbdhj d t fgs jk phdbj jk 0>4= ? hjs fektdkts mj tdxjs

rjbeuvrjs pdr hd huttj bektrj hd ardumj suprgjurs dux prvgsgeks sekt daajbts bldquj

dkkj bj aekms befptjr mj 0>4=, jk vuj mj fflkdkbjr mjs rmubtgeks mgfpts.


51/90

:>


0.0.4.2. Zk precrdffj mj bjssgek mj preprgts gffe`ghgrjsjt mj pdrtgbgpdtgeks pu`hgqujs d t jkcdc jk 0>42

Hj ceuvjrkjfjkt gtdhgjk mgspesj muk pdtrgfegkj gfpertdkt, tdkt fe`ghgjr qugffe`ghgjr,

vdhu du tetdh 4 44. Dfflk mj mcdcjr mjs rjsseurbjs

supphfjktdgrjs peur hd beksehgmdtgek mjs agkdkbjs pu`hgqujs, uk precrdffj

mj prgvdtgsdtgeks, dkkekb ms 0>44, d t fgs jk uvrj befptjr mj 0>42.Bj

precrdffj befprjkm mjux vehjts ?

; hj prjfgjr vehjt bekbjrkj hd bjssgek mukj pdrtgj mu pdtrgfegkj gffe`ghgjrmj htdt.Mjs bjssgeks ekt t rdhgsjs mj cr cr, jk 0>42, peur uk fektdktmjkvgrek =7> fghhgeks mjures, duxqujhs megvjkt trj doeuts =3 fghhgeks mjures

mcdcs trdvjrs hjs vjktjs rdhgss pdr hdcjkbj ceuvjrkjfjktdhj bldrcj mupdtrgfegkj mj htdt 9

; hj sjbekm vehjt, jkcdc jk 0>4=, pertj sur hjs pdrtgbgpdtgeks mdks mjs jktrj-prgsjs.Hjs bjssgeks mj pdrtgbgpdtgeks mjvrdgjkt bekbjrkjr ketdffjkt JKG, R]Fg-brejhjbtrekgbs, Jkdv, dgksg quj mjs jktrjprgsjs mdks hjsqujhhjs hj ceuvjrkjfjktmtgjkt mjs pdrtgbgpdtgeks gkmgrjbtjs pdr hgktjrfmgdgrj mj hd Bdssd Mjpesgtg j

^rjstgtg (qugvdhjkt gtdhgjk mj hd Bdgssj mjs mpts jt beksgckdtgeks), ketdffjktmdks Rdbj, Agkbdktgjrg, BM^ Pjtg, ]rdks Dustrgd Cdshjgtukc. Zkj prjfgrj tdpj d t

ardkblgj jk odkvgjr 0>4= dvjb hdmeptgek mj mjux mbrjts dutergsdkt hd bjssgek mj

pdrtgbgpdtgeks mj => % mdks hd ^estj gtdhgjkkj jt =7 % mdks Jkdv.

Bj precrdffj mj bjssgeks pjrfjttrd mj mcdcjr ukj rjsseurbj supphfjktdgrj

mj >,3 pegkt mj ^G@ pdr dk jktrj 0>4= jt 0>43.


52/90

:4Beksehgmdtgek ùmctdgrj jt rjmrjssjfjkt bekefgquj jk Jurepj


0.0.0. Hjs `dgssjs mjs mpjksjs ekt pert sur teutjs hjs befpesdktjsmj hdbtgek pu`hgquj

0.0.0.4. Hjs mpjksjs mj aekbtgekkjfjkt mj htdt ekt t mgfgkujs mdks hjbdmrj muk prebjssus mj spjkmgkc rjvgjw

Hjs phdks mj beksehgmdtgek ùmctdgrj fgs jk phdbj jk 0>44 jk Gtdhgj ekt prvu ukj

`dgssj mjs mpjksjs mjs dmfgkgstrdtgeks bjktrdhjs, peur uk fektdkt mj 4 fghhgdrm

mjures jk 0>40, 2,: fghhgdrms mjures jk 0>42 jt : fghhgdrms mjures jk 0>4=. Bjs

`dgssjs mjs mpjksjs ekt t e`tjkujs, mdks uk prjfgjr tjfps, jk fflxdkt bldquj

fgkgstrj mjs bg`hjs mj mgfgkutgek mj sek ùmcjt, bldrcj peur hug mgmjktgffljr hjs

fjsurjs pjrfjttdkt mj hjs d`ser`jr.

^dr hd sugtj, hj ceuvjrkjfjkt gtdhgjk d gkgtg jk 0>40 uk prebjssus mj rjvuj ckrdhj

mjs mpjksjs (spjkmgkc rjvgjw), vgsdkt vdhujr hd pjrtgkjkbj jt hjafflbdbgt mjs

mpjksjs pu`hgqujs jk vuj mj pjrfjttrj hd rmubtgek mj bjhhjs qug dppdrdgssjkt gkutghjs

eu jxbjssgvjs.

Hj systfj fgs jk phdbj jk 0>40 prvegt hj pghetdcj mj hd mfdrblj pdr uk befgt

befpes mu fgkgstrj mj hbekefgj jt mjs Agkdkbjs, mu fgkgstrj mj hDmfgkgstrdtgek

pu`hgquj jt mu fgkgstrj mjs Pjhdtgeks dvjb hj ^drhjfjkt, dssgsts pdr hj sjrvgbj

mvdhudtgek mu fgkgstrj mjs Agkdkbjs. Reus hd supjrvgsgek mj bj befgt, bldquj

mpdrtjfjkt fgkgstrgjh d hd bldrcj mercdkgsjr uk mgdckestgb mjs precrdffjs

ùmctdgrjs mekt gh d hd bldrcj. Hjs vdhudtgeks sekt bekmugtjs pdr hjs mgaarjktjs

gkstgtutgeks bldrcjs mu bektrhj jt mj hvdhudtgek mjs pehgtgqujs pu`hgqujs (Beur mjs

befptjs, fgkgstrj mj hd Aekbtgek pu`hgquj).

Hd rjvuj mjs mpjksjs d t rdhgsj jk mjux pldsjs. Hd prjfgrj pldsj sjst mreuhj

jk 0>40 ?; ukj prjfgrj tdpj, gkgtgj jk oughhjt 0>40, bekbjrkj hjs mpjksjs beurdktjsmj htdt.Jhhj d bekmugt hdmeptgek mj fjsurjs bekbjrkdkt hjafflbgjkbj mdks hd cjstgekmjs dbldts, hjs mpjksjs mj beksjgh, hjs dvdktdcjs kek sdhdrgdux mjs aekbtgekkdgrjs

(bekcs, rjfèursjfjkt mjs rjpds), uk ferdtegrj sur hdbqugsgtgek mj `tgfjktspu`hgbs, jt hd supprjssgek mj phusgjurs dcjkbjs mj htdt 9

; ukj sjbekmj tdpj, gkgtgj jk ebte`rj 0>40, bekbjrkj prgkbgpdhjfjkt hgffe`ghgjr,jk pdrtgbuhgjr bjhug mjs behhjbtgvgts hebdhjs jt mu sjrvgbj kdtgekdh mj sdkt. Bjs mjuxprjfgrjs tdpjs megvjkt bekmugrj ukj rmubtgek mjs mpjksjs mj 22,2 fghhgdrmsmjures sur hd prgemj 0>40-0>4:(= fghhgdrms mjures jk 0>40, 1,2 fghhgdrms mjures


53/90

:0


jk 0>42, 44,2 fghhgdrms mjures jk 0>4= jt 0>4:) pdr rdppert du tjkmdkbgjh mvehutgek

mjs mpjksjs.

Hj ceuvjrkjfjkt d dssgck jk 0>42 hd rjvuj mjs mpjksjs uk keuvjh eòjbtgakjttjfjkt phus df`gtgjux ? adgrj mgfgkujr hj rdtge mj hd mpjksj pu`hgquj du ^G@ mj 0

% sur hd prgemj 0>42/0>41.

Mdks bjttj eptgquj, uk beffgssdgrj bldrc mj hd rjvuj mjs mpjksjs d t keff,

dfflk mj beermekkjr hjs jaaerts mjs mgaarjkts fgkgstrjs jt mjs eprdtjurs mj htdt.

Gh jst met muk sjrvgbj pjrfdkjkt jk bldrcj mj hd rjvuj mjs mpjksjs. Hj beffgssdgrj

d t keff peur tregs dks befptjr mu = ebte`rj 0>42 jt mgspesj mj peuvegrs tjkmus

(dbbs hjksjf`hj mjs mekkjs mekt mgspesjkt hjs dmfgkgstrdtgeks pu`hgqujs,

pessg`ghgt mj mghgcjktjr mjs dumgts eu mjs gkspjbtgeks).

êur dttjgkmrj heòjbtga mj rmubtgek mjs mpjksjs, hj beffgssdgrj d bekmugt sjs

trdvdux du beurs mj hdkkj 0>4=, jt d gmjktgffl mjs fjsurjs mbekefgjs berrjspekmdkt

uk fektdkt mj =,: fghhgdrms mjures jk 0>4=, 43 fghhgdrms mjures jk 0>4: jt 20

fghhgdrms mjures jk 0>41 pdr rdppert du tjkmdkbgjh mjs mpjksjs. Hjs prgkbgpdux

cgsjfjkts mbekefgjs gmjktgffls bekbjrkjkt ?

; hjs dgmjs dux jktrjprgsjs 9

; hj bet mjs dcjkbjs mj htdt jt mjs bldf`rjs mj beffjrbj 9

; hjs sdhdgrjs mjs lduts aekbtgekkdgrjs, qug sekt hjvs jk befpdrdgsek mjs dutrjspdys jurepjks (ba. gkard) 9

;hd bjktrdhgsdtgek mjs dbldts duprs mu sjrvgbj bjktrdh mjs dbldts mj htdt Beksgp 9

; hd cjstgek mj hgffe`ghgjr 9

; hjs bets mj aekbtgekkjfjkt mjs bd`gkjts fgkgstrgjhs 9

; ukj fjghhjurj beermgkdtgek mjs aerbjs mj pehgbj, peur vgtjr hjs meu`heks jktrj

mgaarjkts mpdrtjfjkts. Bjttj rercdkgsdtgek mjvrdgt pjrfjttrj mjs bekefgjs ldutjur mj > fghhgeks mjures jk 0>4: jt 4,1 fghhgdrm mjures jk 0>41 9

; hj mvjheppjfjkt mjs thprebmurjs jt mj hd mfdtrgdhgsdtgek, qug mjvrdgt pjr-

fjttrj mjs bekefgjs ldutjur mj 0,: fghhgdrms mjures jk 0>41, ketdffjkt

trdvjrs hj mvjheppjfjkt mj hd adbturj hjbtrekgquj, mu pdgjfjkt mfdtrgdhgsjt mj hd bjktrdhgsdtgek mj hd cjstgek mjs mekkjs gkaerfdtgqujs.


54/90

:2Beksehgmdtgek `umctdgrj jt rjmrjssjfjkt bekefgquj jk Jurepj


0.0.0.0. Hjs mpjksjs mj pjrsekkjh ekt mgfgku, seus hjaajt mukj dgssj mjsrjbrutjfjkts jt muk cjh mjs sdhdgrjs

Hd raerfj mj hd aekbtgek pu`hgquj mj avrgjr 4772 d gkstdur jk Gtdhgj ukj bektrdbtudhgsdtgek

mjs rjhdtgeks jktrj hjs jfpheys pu`hgbs jt htdt, qugvdhjkt ukj prgvdtgsdtgek mj

hjfpheg pu`hgb . Mj bj adgt, hd fdoergt mjs dcjkts pu`hgbs jst seufgsj mjpugs hers du

mregt prgv mu trdvdgh. Bjrtdgkjs bdtcergjs mj pjrsekkjhs kekt teutjaegs pds t

prgvdtgsjs dfflk mj prsjrvjr hjur gkmpjkmdkbj (fdcgstrdts mu sgcj jt fdcgstrdts mu

pdrqujt, preajssjurs mjs ukgvjrsgts, fghgtdgrjs jt eafflbgjrs mj pehgbj, mgphefdtjs jt

berps prajbterdh). Bjs bdtcergjs, qug sekt seufgsjs du stdtut mjs aekbtgekkdgrjs, kj

rjprsjktjkt quj 4: % mjs dcjkts pu`hgbs.

Du tetdh, jk 0>44, hjs dcjkts pu`hgbs rjprsjktdgjkt jk Gtdhgj jkvgrek 42 % mj hd

pepuhdtgek dbtgvj, bj qug jst preblj mj hd feyjkkj mj hEBMJ

^repertgek mdcjkts pu`hgbs mdks hd pepuhdtgek dbtgvj jk 0>44 (jk %)

Reurbj ? EJBM Cevjrkfjkt dt d Chdkbj 0>42.

>

1,:

42

47,:

01

Rumj Peydufj-Zkg Grhdkmj Jspdckj


55/90

:=


Hjs sdhdrgs mu sjbtjur pu`hgb gtdhgjk, jk 0>44, sekt che`dhjfjkt fgjux rfukrs

quj mdks hjs dutrjs pdys jurepjks, kgvjdu mj rjspeksd`ghgt cdh jt jk pdrgt mj

peuvegr mdbldt. Dfflk mj peuvegr befpdrjr hj kgvjdu mj rfukrdtgek jktrj sdhdrgs musjbtjur pu`hgb mj pdys mgaarjkts, hEBMJ d br qudtrj jksjf`hjs ?

; hjs jksjf`hjs M4 jt M0 rjcreupjkt mdks hjs mgaarjkts pdys hjs sdhdrgs mu sjb-

tjur pu`hgb sj treuvdkt mjs kgvjdux hjvs mj rjspeksd`ghgt (sjkger fdkdcjrs) 9

; hjs jksjf`hjs M2 jt M= rjcreupjkt hjs sdhdrgs mu sjbtjur pu`hgb sj treuvdkt

mjs pestjs gktjrfmgdgrjs mj rjspeksd`ghgt (fgmmhj fdkdcjrs).

Jk Gtdhgj, bjs qudtrj bdtcergjs mj sdhdrgs mu sjbtjur pu`hgb sekt fgjux rfukrjs

quj hjurs lefehecujs jurepjks. Hd mgaarjkbj mj trdgtjfjkt agkdkbgjr jst

pdrtgbuhgrjfjkt fdrquj peur bj qug bekbjrkj hjs kgvjdux mj rjspeksd`ghgt hjs phushjvs. Jk pdrtgbuhgjr, hjs aekbtgekkdgrjs gtdhgjks mj hd bdtcergj M4 pjregvjkt uk sdhdgrj

prs mj tregs aegs suprgjur bjhug mj hjurs lefehecujs ardkdgs eu dhhjfdkms.

Rdhdgrj dkkujh feyjk mjs sdhdrgs mu sjbtjur pu`hgbjk 0>44 ($ jk ^^^)

Reurbj ? EJBM Cevjrkfjkt dt d Chdkbj 0>42.

Mjs raerfjs gfpertdktjs dvdgjkt t jkcdcjs ms dvdkt hd brgsj peur dfhgerjr hd

premubtgvgt mj hd aekbtgek pu`hgquj gtdhgjkkj, mdks hj bdmrj mj hd raerfj mgtj @rukjttd .

Dmeptj jk fdrs 0>>7, bjhhj-bg prvegt hd femuhdtgek mj hd rfukrdtgek mjs aekbtgek-

kdgrjs jk aekbtgek mj hjur pjraerfdkbj ( ousqu 0> % mj hjur sdhdgrj, hd ldussj beffj


56/90

::Beksehgmdtgek `umctdgrj jt rjmrjssjfjkt bekefgquj jk Jurepj


hd `dgssj) jt mjs sdkbtgeks dbbrujs jk bds md`sjktgsfj eu mgkmgsbgphgkj.Mdks hj

bdmrj mu phdk mj beksehgmdtgek mjs fflkdkbjs pu`hgqujs, phusgjurs fjsurjs trs sgckg-

fflbdtgvjs ekt t prgsjs dfflk mj mgfgkujr hj vehufj mj hjfpheg pu`hgb jt hd fdssj sdhd-rgdhj ?

; bldquj mpdr tjfjkt fgkgstrgjh sjst vu gfpesjr, lergzek 0>4:, ukj mgfgkutgek

mjs jaajbtgas mj 0> % peur hjs bdmrjs, jt ukj mgfgkutgek mj 4> % mj hd fdssj sdhd-rgdhj peur hjs kek-bdmrjs. Bjs fjsurjs mjvrdgjkt pjrfjttrj mjs bekefgjs ldutjur

mj 3>> fghhgeks mjures pdr dk lergzek 0>4: 9

; peur hd prgemj 0>40-0>4=, hjs jf`dubljs mj aekbtgekkdgrjs mtdt kj peurrektrjprsjktjr quj 0> % mjs mpdrts hd rjtrdgtj. Bj blgaarj sjrd pert :> % jk 0>4:

jt 4>> % jk 0>41 9

; hd rfukrdtgek mjs aekbtgekkdgrjs d t cjhj peur hd prgemj 0>40-0>4=.

Hjs sdhdgrjs mjs lduts aekbtgekkdgrjs sekt, qudkt jux, mgfgkus mj : % ms hers

qughs mpdssjkt 7> >>> jures dkkujhs jt mj 4> % sghs sekt suprgjurs 4:> >>>jures dkkujhs.

Hd fdssj sdhdrgdhj mj hd aekbtgek pu`hgquj gtdhgjkkj d dgksg kjttjfjkt mgfgku jktrj

0>4> jt 0>4=, pdssdkt mj 430,: 412,0 fghhgdrms mjures, bj qug rjprsjktj ukj

mgfgkutgek mj :,= %. Hj pegms mj hd fdssj sdhdrgdhj mdks hj ^G@ gtdhgjk shjvdgt 4>,4

% jk 0>4=, preblj mj hd feyjkkj mj hd zekj jure (4>,2 %).

Fdssj sdhdrgdhj mj hd aekbtgek pu`hgquj jk Gtdhgj(0>>:-0>4=, jk fghhgdrms mjures)


4:>

4:3,:

41:

430,:

4

italie : le chemin escarpé des réformes

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