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© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.

Глобальные технологические трендыThe 2018 To 2019 Global Tech Market Outlook

Сергей Македонский

Региональный директор, CIS&Baltics

«Цифровой город Москва – итоги 2017года и образ будущего»

13 марта 2018 г.

3© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.

Agenda

› Age of the Customer and Market Imperatives

› Global tech spending will increase at a faster 5% pace in 2018, but with risks rising in 2019.

› US, China, and India are leading growth; Europe and Japan also participating in the growth.

› BT priorities are fueling tech market demand, but back-office technology spending is also growing.

› Cloud is reshaping tech markets, especially in software and services, but also in hardware.

› 2019 risks stem from policies in the US, the UK, and China.


Empowered customers are changing the way companies compete and win


Empowered customers have given rise to a new era

Age of manufacturing

Mass manufacturing

makes industrial

powerhouses

successful

• Ford

• Boeing

• GE

• RCA

Age of distribution

Global connections

and transportation

systems make

distribution key

• Wal-Mart

• Toyota

• P&G

• UPS

Age of information

Connected PCs and

supply chains mean

those that control

information flow

dominate

• Amazon

• Google

• Comcast

• Capital One

Age of the customer

Empowered buyers

demand a new level of

customer obsession

• Macy’s

• Salesforce.com

• USAA

• Amazon


Drive revenue with great customer

experience

Differentiate with digital

Build a customer insights driven organization

Excel at customer-obsessed marketing

Maximize the business value of technology

The age of thecustomer

Forrester identified 5 market imperatives, modern organizations should master in order to win


The Age of the Customer requirements are common to every industry

Understand and anticipate your customers.

Win on the battleground of customer experience.

Differentiate on business technology.


In this new era we focus on 12 roles

Marketing & Strategy

CMO B2B

Marketing

B2C

Marketing

Customer

Experience

Customer

Insights

eBusiness

& Channel

Strategy

Technology Management

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AGENDA

BUSINESS TECHNOLOGY AGENDA

CIO Enterprise

Architecture

Security

& Risk

Application

Development

& Delivery

Sourcing

& Vendor

Management

Infrastructure

& Operations

Customers


Three sets of five technologies stand out


Emerging tech will unleash massive change


Why CIOs should care about tech market trends

›To understand how much and where other firms are spending

on technology and how that spending is shifting over time

›To determine where they ought to be investing more to get

ahead of or keep up with competition

›To improve the prioritization of investments in new workloads

where technology can be transformational for the business

›To be able to negotiate with vendors better by understanding

how well they are or aren’t doing


How our global forecasts have evolved

*Forrester forecast

WE HAVE RAISED OUR 2018 TECH MARKET OUTLOOK DUE TO BETTER ECONOMIC GROWTH, BUT

ARE CAUTIOUS ABOUT THE 2019 OUTLOOK DUE TO GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES

Forrester’s forecasts

for global tech market growth in US dollars


Global tech market by product in US$, 2014 to 2019

*Forrester forecast

2.4%-4.2% 6.1%4.6%

$2,959 $2,835 $2,905 $3,029

$3,3604.3%

$3,212

US

$ b

illi

on

s


US dollar growth rates in global tech market by product

Global in US$

(% change)2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019*

Computer equipment -7.5% -2.0% 3.8% 5.6% 4.1%

Communications equipment -3.5% -1.9% 3.1% 5.5% 2.9%

Software -2.2% 4.9% 5.1% 8.3% 7.4%

Tech consulting and systems

integration services-2.1% 3.9% 4.5% 6.4% 4.7%

Tech outsourcing and hardware

maintenance-5.9% 5.0% 6.3% 6.6% 5.7%

Telecommunications services -5.0% 1.8% 2.4% 3.6% 1.7%

Total tech purchases -4.2% 2.4% 4.3% 6.1% 4.6%

*Forrester forecast

SOFTWARE AND CONSULTING SERVICES LEAD THE MARKET


Global tech market by region in US$, 2014 to 2019

*Forrester forecast

2.4%-4.2% 6.1%4.6%

$2,959 $2,835 $2,905 $3,029

$3,3604.3%

$3,212

US

$ b

illi

on

s


By region, the US and Asia Pacific’s tech market will grow fastest in 2018 and 2019

*Forrester forecast

2014 to 2019 regional tech purchases forecast

(Percentage change in exchange-rate-adjusted US dollars)


2018 tech market by 25 largest country tech markets

Russia


How Forrester looks at tech spending

• Business technology (BT)

is technology for firms to win,

serve, and retain customers.

• Back-office technology

(BoT) is technology to

support business operations

and to cut costs.

BT

new project

BoT new project

BoT MOOSE

BT MOOSE

• Tech MOOSE is the 70% to 75%

of tech budget to maintain and

operate organization, systems,

and equipment.

• New project

spending (25% to

30%) creates new

capabilities.


Business technology will be almost $1 trillion of global tech purchases in 2019

Source: Forrester Research

*Forrester forecast

US

$ b

illi

on

s

2.4%-4.2%

4.6%

$2,959$2,835 $2,905 $3,029

$3,3604.3%

$3,212

6.1%


Business technology will constitute a larger share of new spending in 2018

*Forrester forecast

Global tech spending by focus

(US$ billions)

$3,212

$855

$2,458


And spending on business technology will grow faster than spending on IT

*Forrester forecast

Global tech purchases by business focus

(Percentage change from prior year)


Global software by major product

(US$ billions) $738

$589$576

$604$635

Global software market, 2014 to 2019

*Forrester forecast

$688


Growth from prior year 2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019*

Operating systems -4% -5% -5% -8% -2%

Storage management 1% -16% -7% -3% 4%

Database management systems 3% 2% 1% 0% 2%

IT management tools -8% -2% 2% 4% 6%

Security 16% 3% 4% 9% 9%

App servers and integration 2% -2% 6% 9% 9%

Application development tools -2% 2% 3% 6% 6%

Desktop applications -9% 2% 5% 6% 7%

Information management applications 6% 9% 10% 11% 12%

Business applications 2% 9% 10% 13% 15%

Enterprise vertical applications -2% 6% 8% 8% 8%

Mobile applications built by contractors and

consultants35% 30% 29% 10% 10%

Other custom applications built by contractors

and consultants-11% 4% -2% 5% -2%

Information management and business apps will have the strongest growth in 2018 and 2019

*Forrester forecast

Middleware

Applications

Custom

applications


SaaS has captured half or more of revenues in half dozen app categories

*Forrester forecast


Cloud software rises toward a third of all commercial software

*Forrester forecast


$337

$257 $258

$304

Global business applications by type of product

(US$ billions)

In business apps, BI, CRM, FMS, HRMS, and vertical apps are biggest categories

*Forrester forecast

$278

$378


Global tech consulting and systems integration services market

(US$ billions)

SaaS implementation services growing faster than on-premises software services

*Forrester forecast

$629$660

$562 $548$591

-2.6% 3.7% 4.0%

$568

4.9%6.5%

7%

0%

20%

8%

2%

25%


Global tech outsourcing services market

(US$ billions)

Public and private cloud platforms growing strongly, with a revival in other tech outsourcing

*Forrester forecast

$485$505

$466$432

$465

-7.4%3.3% 4.2%

$446

4.0%4.4%


Global computer equipment market by major product

(US$ billions)

Strong growth in spending on PCs and tablets; bump up in demand for servers and storage for cloud platforms in 2018

*Forrester forecast

$367$370$342 $335

$348

-7.5% -2.0%3.8% 5.6%

4.1%

$382


Global communications equipment market by major product

(US$ billions)

Decent increase in demand for communications equipment in 2018, slowing in 2019

*Forrester forecast

$341$331 $319 $313 $323

-3.5% -1.9% 3.1% 5.5%$350

2.9%


Three reasons the tech market could do worse than our forecast

1. US tax bill provides excessive stimulus to business investment, stock

market, and commercial real estate, leading to a bubble in 2018 that

collapses in 2019, undermined by weak consumer spending, falling

housing sector, and declines in government spending.

2. UK’s Brexit negotiations get even messier, leading to a UK recession in

2019.

3. China’s heavy-handed economic management papers over debt and

growth issues in 2018, which resurface in 2019.


Recommendations for CIOs

› Plan for good tech budget increases in 2018 in most countries, but be cautious in

2019.

• Adapt your plans to your country’s and industry’s tech market outlook.

› Use the cloud, but watch your future costs.

• SaaS software and cloud platforms offer firms the new technologies they need to support their BT

agenda at low implementation costs, but a handful of large vendors are gaining dominant positions

in their market segments.

• CIOs should avoid monogamy when it comes to their cloud relationships, and have a contingency

plan for vendor price increases.

› Balance investments in the BT agenda with back-office improvements.

• Firms experiencing increased revenues should invest in the BT technologies needed to win, serve,

and retain customers. CIOs need to be prepared to pay market rates for critical BT technologies and

delay, or look for cheap alternatives for less critical ones.

FORRESTER.COM

Thank you© 2018 FORRESTER. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED.

Sergei Makedonski

[email protected]

+31203054373

+79039746761

© 2018 forrester. reproduction...

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