les ucas ont-ils une place dans les conflits futurs ?

Upload: frs-fondation-pour-la-recherche-strategique

Post on 05-Apr-2018

217 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 8/2/2019 Les UCAS ont-ils une place dans les conflits futurs ?

    1/10

    Egr~cbxlrecgMh| tmfrh|+ac~kh| f~ehggh| gcg `fnerh| E\^Egrhmmejhglh- \x~qhemmfglh fgb ^hlcggfe||fglh%|cgr t~cj~h||eqhkhgr fbftrh| tcx~ bmeq~h~ bh|f~khkhgr| hr bhqhge~ bh| b~cgh| f~k|- hg fr+rhgbfgr mf jg~frecg bh| q`elxmh| f~ehg| gcg`fner| bh lcknfr XLF\%6 lcgx| tcx~ mhktc~rhr mh mf~jfjh bf~kh|' Fxp Hrfr|+Xge|- hg Fx|r~f+meh- hg ^x||eh- hg L`egh hr hg Egbh- bh| t~crcru+th| bXLF\- u lckt~e| `uth~|cgevxh|- |xne||hgrbo bh| h||fe| hg qcm'

    Mh lcglhtr XLF\ t~|hgrh xg egr~r gcxqhfx hrtf~relxmeh~ lf~ em h|r egbxnerfnmhkhgr tc~rhx~bxgh ~xtrx~h bfg| mf~cgfxrevxh bh bahg|h hr

    em |h beaa~hgleh acgbfkhgrfmhkhgr bxg b~cghE\^ tf~ mh afer vxem gh |h lcgrhgrh tf| bcn|h~qh~mhgqe~cgghkhgr |fg| mh kcbeaeh~ kfe| em h|r hgkh|x~h bh t~cgcglh~ xgh frrfvxh hr bh bmeq~h~

    xg f~khkhgr mrfm' Hg rfgr vxh lftrhx~#haahlrhx~ em thxr egrh~a~h~ be~hlrhkhgr |x~ mhl`fkt bh nfrfemmh'

    \e mh lcglhtr bh mXLF\ |hknmh b|c~kfe| fllht+r fxp Hrfr|+Xge|- mf ~amhpecg h|r thegh nfmnx+refgrh hg A~fglh hr hg Hx~cth' Lhrrh gcrh afer mhtcegr bh| lcglhtr| hr bclr~egh| hpe|rfgr| cx hglcx~| bmfnc~frecg- bh| t~cnmkh| rhl`gelc+ct~frecgghm| bxreme|frecg bxg XLF\ hr fnc~bhmh| ~fme|frecg| hg lcx~| fqhl mf tmflh bh m`ck+kh bfg| mf ncxlmh bcxqh~rx~h bx ahx'

    Bclr~egh| hr lcglhtr|

    Mh afer f||h ~hkf~vxfnmh mc~| bx lcgamer menfgc+e|~fmehg bh oxemmhr >441 h|r mxreme|frecg egrhg|eqhbh tmfrh|+ac~kh| E\^ tf~ E|~fm hr mh @hncmmf`%|fg| tcx~ fxrfgr afe~h mcnohr bh lckkxgelfrecg|

    gcrh g4:#66

    J L F ( > \ % K e l ` h m F | h g l e c

    L`h~l`hx~ f||cle mf Acgbfrecg tcx~mf ^hl`h~l`h \r~frjevxh

    Mh| XLF\ cgr+em| xgh tmflh

    bfg| mh| lcgamer| axrx~| 3(Gcrh bx >: fq~em >440- ke|h ocx~ mh 64 oxeg >466%

  • 8/2/2019 Les UCAS ont-ils une place dans les conflits futurs ?

    2/10

    >

    tf~relxme~h| |x~ m*xreme|frecg bh| f~kh| ~cncre+|h| bx axrx~ ' Mhx~ xreme|frecg h|r b|c~kfe|bhqhgxh |u|rkfrevxh- mf ~cncre|frecg hg kf~l`hbh| lcgamer| ~lhgr| |hknmh l`c|h flvxe|h hr eg|+rfmmh bfg| mh| kx~|' Mh| b~cgh| vxet| bhlftrhx~| bh ~hg|hejghkhgr acgr b|c~kfe| tf~rehbh mf tfgctmeh bh| |u|rkh| f~ehg| btmcu|'

    Tcx~ mh| ac~lh| fk~elfegh| h||hgrehmmhkhgr- em hgqf bh kkh bh| b~cgh| f~k| vxe t~aejx~hgr mh|XLF\ bh bhkfeg'

    Bh tf~ mhx~ tcmuqfmhglh- mhx~ hgbx~fglh hr mfkxmretmeler bh| ke||ecg| vxem| thxqhgr f||x~h~-mh| b~cgh| bh lcknfr gcg `fner| bhq~fehgr ~+qcmxrecggh~ mxreme|frecg bh mf > ^ftrc~ hrmh A#F 60H cgr r lcg|eb~| lckkh tf~jg|

    tf~ mh| lcxth| nxbjrfe~h|- mh lfmkh h|r ~hqhgxbfg| mh| h|t~er|' Kfe| mh jg~fm @fm K' @c~g+nx~j- lckkfgbfgr mf Ac~lh F~ehggh bh Lcknfrfk~elfegh- lhrrh tcvxh- t~le|h ? Oh qhxpvx*em| af||hgr bfqfgrfjh Ymh| XLF\[ vxh ox|rh mhafer br~h rmtemcr| - mhx~| lf~flr~e|revxh|Yxgevxh|[ bceqhgr r~h mhgbx~fglh- mf |ejgfrx~hY~bxerh GbM^[ hr mh lcr ct~frecgghm ega+~ehx~ ' Mh axrx~ XF\ bcer bhkhx~h~ thgbfgrbh mcgjxh| t~ecbh| fx+bh||x| bx l`fkt bh nf+rfemmh hr r~h hg kh|x~h bh |x~qeq~h- em bcer r~hhg kh|x~h bh |h bahgb~h''' hr tcxqce~ r~h ~fqe+

    rfemmh~ hg qcm faeg b*cnrhge~ lhrrh th~|e|rfglh ' Kfe| mXLF\ gh|r tmx| xg ~f|ce~ vxh gcx|lcg|eb~cg| lckkh ohrfnmh' Mh ocx~ c mh| t~h+keh~| T~hbfrc~ |h |cgr l~f|`|- th~|cggh gh

    |h|r q~fekhgr egvxer- kfegrhgfgr gcx| gcx|egvxercg| xg thx tmx|''' Lh| l`c|h| cgr bh mfqfmhx~ ' Em h|r q~fe vxh mh t~ep bh ~hqehgr xgerfe~hbxg KV6 T~hbfrc~ F- |h |erxh fxrcx~ bh"64 kemmecg|- |rfrecg| |cm hr f||e|rfglh lckt~e|h|hr vxh lhmxe bx KV5 T~hbfrc~ N ^hfth~ h|rbhxp ace| tmx| mhq' F lh t~ep m- cg lckkhglh

    lcktrh~'Tf~ lcgr~h- em gh afer tmx| fxlxg bcxrh tcx~ th~+|cggh vxh mfqecg bh lcknfr bh mf t~cl`fegh j+g~frecg |em bhqfer hpe|rh~ rfgr fxp Hrfr|+Xge|vxhg Hx~cth% rehgb~f lcktrh bh lh gcxqhm haahl+rhx~ f~ehg cx bx kceg|- vxem `~erh~f bh| fqfg+lh| rhl`gcmcjevxh| ba~el`h| tf~ lh qhlrhx~'Tf~ hphktmh- mh| t~cj~| bx ~fqerfemmhkhgr hg qcmbxg XF\ hg fxrckfrevxh tcx~~cgr r~h fttme+vx| fxp fqecg| `fner| tcx~ fkmec~h~ mf |lx~e+r bh lhrrh ct~frecg- rcxocx~| bmelfrh hg kf+gxhm'

    Mh| fgjmc+|fpcg| cgr jfmhkhgr t~ctc| xglcglhtr `un~ebh bfg| mhvxhm mh kkh q`elxmhf~ehg thxr+r~h- |cer `fner- |cer lckkfgb tf~xg temcrh btc~r f~cgha ctrecgghmmhkhgr`fner% cx r~h rcrfmhkhgr fxrcgckh |xeqfgr mh|t`f|h| bh qcm' Lh lcglhtr eglmxr jfmhkhgr mh qcmhg tfr~cxemmh bh tmx|ehx~| q`elxmh| gcg `fner|cx mh qcm hg tfr~cxemmh| keprh| fqhl bh| fqecg|`fner|' Xg cx tmx|ehx~| q`elxmh| fxrckfrevxh|rfgr qhgrxhmmhkhgr t~e| hg l`f~jh tf~ xg temc+rh bh mf tfr~cxemmh'

    Kfe| |e mh| XF\ E\^ cgr r~cxq mhx~ tmflh bfg| mhtfghm bh| ke||ecg| bqcmxh| mf~kh f~ehggh- mftmflh ~hmmh bh| XLF\ bfg| mf tfgctmeh bh| lftf+ler| flrxhmmh| h|r tmx| beaaelemh lh~gh~'

    Mh| gel`h| lftflerfe~h| tc||enmh|Mh >< blhkn~h >44> f hx mehx mh t~hkeh~ lck+nfr f~ehg bh m`e|rce~h hgr~h xg fqecg bh l`f||htemcr hr xg b~cgh f~k' Xg temcrh btc~r fhgjfj |cg T~hbfrc~ f~k bh bhxp ke||emh| \reg+jh~ lcgr~h xg Kej >8 E~fiehg- mh b~cgh f re~ |h|

    ke||emh| kfe| me||xh bx lcknfr f r afrfmh fxb~cgh' Mh| ke||ecg| bh bahg|h f~ehggh- kkh|x~ bh| |erxfrecg| rflrevxh| r~| |ektmh|- |hk+nmhgr `c~| bh tc~rh bh| XLF\ bfg| xg fqhge~t~qe|enmh' Mrfr bh mf~r bh| fxrckfre|kh| hr bhmftt~hgre||fjh bh mhgqe~cgghkhgr tf~ xgh kf+l`egh mfe||h hglc~h bh nhmmh| fggh| bhpe|rhglhfxp qhlrhx~| bh lcknfr `fner| hg bahg|h f+~ehggh' Kfe| hg ke||ecg| fe~+|cm bh| gel`h| |hk+nmhgr tc||enmh| rcxr hg |h |erxfgr tmxrr bfg| mflcktmkhgrf~er vxh bfg| mh ~hktmflhkhgr tx~hr |ektmh bh| kcuhg| hpe|rfgr|'

    Cg lerh tcx~ kkce~h- mf tc||enemer bh ~hktme~mf ke||ecg E\^ tf~ xg b~cgh f~k- hg ~hktmflh+khgr bxg fqecg bh ~hlcggfe||fglh- rcxr hg rfgr

  • 8/2/2019 Les UCAS ont-ils une place dans les conflits futurs ?

    3/10

    441%- cg |fl`hkegh bhtxe|- qh~| bhxp ruth|bXLF\ fk~elfeg|' Mf Kf~egh f nh|ceg bxg t+

    gr~frhx~ r~| ax~rea hr threr- bh mf rfemmh bxgP2:N P+2:G%- tcx~ bh| ke||ecg| bh a~ftth|bfg| mf t~cacgbhx~ hr bh ~hg|hejghkhgr- bh |x~+qhemmfglh hr bh ~hlcggfe||fglh' MX\ Fe~ Ac~lh fnh|ceg- hmmh- bxgh tmfrh+ac~kh nhfxlcxt tmx|j~fgbh- tmx| bfg| mf lmf||h bxg ncknf~beh~ mcx~bvxh bxg l`f||hx~' Hmmh tcx~|xer mh| bqhmctth+khgr| bx t~cj~fkkh P+28L'

    Nehg hgrhgbx- mftt~cl`h jc|r~frjevxh bh|rfr|+Xge| gh lc~~h|tcgb tf| lhmmh bh mHx~cthhr hglc~h kceg| lhmmh bh mf A~fglh rcxrh |hxmhkfe| em h|r egr~h||fgr bh ~hrhge~ bhxp tcegr| ?

    + Bxgh tf~r- mh| rfr|+Xge| gh ~hohrrhgrtf|- bfg| mhx~ fgfmu|h- mf keper bh| bhxpkcuhg| `fner| hr gcg `fner| + hr mf |cmxrecg~hrhgxh t~|h~qh~f |hknmh+r+em mf beqh~|er'

    + Bfxr~h tf~r mf ~xn~evxh fqecg| ax+rx~| bh mhx~ ~hqxh bh bahg|h Vxfb~ehggfmhVB^% >441- lcgae~kh tf~ lhmmh bh >464- em gh|rafer khgrecg vxh bxg ncknf~beh~ ax~rea temcr r~| mcgj ~fucg bflrecg hr bh| XLF\' Mf |xllh|+|ecg bh| A>> ^ftrc~ cx O\A A468 jfmhkhgr vxem afxb~f blebh~-hg Hx~cth- |e mh| XLF\ ah~cgr tf~reh bh mf tfgc+tmeh bh| f~khkhgr| bx |u|rkh bh ac~lh| Hgjfjhkhgr#Lcknfr ' Hg tf~relxmeh~- lh|r lhrrh l`fglh vxh mf J~fgbh+N~hrfjgh hr mfA~fglh bhq~cgr blebh~ |e hmmh| |h ~hocejghgr |x~xg t~cj~fkkh XLF\ hx~cthg hg t~caerfgr l`f+

    lxgh bh mhx~ ~hrcx~ bhpt~ehglh |x~ mh| bkcg|+r~frhx~| rhl`gcmcjevxh| Rf~fge| hr Ghx~cg hr |emh|r oxbelehxp bh mfglh~ xg q~erfnmh t~cj~fkkhbf~khkhgr lckkxg vxe bhq~fer fncxre~ qh~|>4>8

    Kfe| fqfgr bh qcxmce~ ~hktmflh~ bh| l`f||hx~|temcr| tf~ bh| XLF\- em ~h|rh hglc~h nhfxlcxtbh ~tcg|h| r~cxqh~ fxp bae| rhl`gcmcjevxh| hrct~frecgghm| tc||'

    Mh| ~jmh| bhgjfjhkhgr

    hr mh| XLF\Mhktmce bXLF\ bfg| beaa~hgrh| ke||ecg| tc|hmf vxh|recg bh mf baegerecg bh| ~jmh| bhgjfjh+khgr ^CH% bh| b~cgh| vxe |cxmqh tmx|ehx~|t~cnmkh|' Fxtf~fqfgr- em h|r thxr+r~h xremh bht~le|h~ vxh mh ac~r r~cte|kh Lmc|h Fe~ \xttc~rLF\% vxe hpe|rh fxocx~b`xe fqhl mFaj`fge|rfg f|xllb mFe~ Egrh~belrecg FE% b`eh~ fx Ic|cqchr vxh bhkfeg lh |h~f q~fe|hknmfnmhkhgr fxr~hl`c|h' Frrhgrecg bcgl fxp ~hrcx~ghkhgr| bh |e+rxfrecg| hr fxp haahr| bh kcbh ' Cg thxrgfgkceg|- |fg| tcxqce~ tc~rh~ bh ~tcg|h t~+

    le|h tcx~ meg|rfgr- |h tc|h~ vxhmvxh| vxh|recg|jg~evxh| |x~ mh| ^CH b~cgh| f~k| cx XLF\ ?

    + Vxhmmh th~lhtrecg thxr fqce~ mct~frhx~bx b~cgh bxgh ekkeghgr frrfli 3 Vxhm| lft+rhx~| |x~ mh b~cgh mxe bcggh~cgr lhrrh th~lht+recg 3 Vxhm ~hlxm fx~f+r+em tcx~ ~fje~ lc~~hlrh+khgr 3

    + X|h ca |xl` ghlh||f~u fgb t~ctc~recgfmac~lh ? mf ac~lh thxr+hmmh r~h t~ctc~recgghmmhbxgh kfl`egh qh~| xg `xkfeg 3

    + Cg ~e|vxh bh th~b~h bh| XLF\ tf~lh

    vxem| gh thxqhgr tf| hgjfjh~ mhx~ fj~h||hx~' Mft~cnmkfrevxh bx lcr ~h|rh tc|h lf~ em h|r tf~+relxme~hkhgr hpflh~n mc~| bh| lcgamer| bh nf||hcx afenmh egrhg|er Me\Z%'

  • 8/2/2019 Les UCAS ont-ils une place dans les conflits futurs ?

    5/10

    8

    Bfg| mh lf| bh ke||ecg| bFe~ Egrh~belrecg FE%qe|++qe| bxg b~cgh- hmmh| |cgr tmfgeaeh|- bcgltmx| aflemhkhgr ~fme|fnmh| tf~ xg XLF\' Mf ke|+|ecg blcmmh fqhl bh| ^CH lcggxh| hr bcgr mh|lcgberecg| |cgr bo tf~rehmmhkhgr ~hktmeh|- mhplhtrecg gcrfnmh bh| LBH Lcmmfr~fm BfkfjhH|rekfrh%' Xgh t~hke~h h|rekfrecg bx LBH h|r

    ~fme| tf~ mf l`fgh bh lckkfgbhkhgr hr |hmcgmh| r`r~h|- xgh bhxpekh qfmxfrecg thxr r~hlcgbxerh fx kckhgr bx re~' Vxhm| |cgr mh| lft+rhx~| f~ctc~r| tf~ mh b~cgh vxe tcx~~fehgrbcggh~ xgh h|rekfrecg th~reghgrh bh| bckkfjh|lcmmfr~fxp tc||enmh| 3 Mqfmxfrecg bx bfgjh~tc|h jfmhkhgr t~cnmkh hr mh ^e|i Mhqhm h|r baege~ tcx~ xg b~cgh hg ~fttc~r fqhl mh geqhfxbh t~ec~er bh mf ke||ecg' Em h|r t~cnfnmh vxh mhb~cgh |h~f |fl~eae kfe| |fg| tc||enemer bh afe~hocxh~ mf ~jmh bfxrc bahg|h cx bh r~cxqh~ xgh~tcg|h t~ctc~recggh mfrrfvxh' Bfxr~h tf~r-

    hg lf| begrh~lhtrecg tf~ mf l`f||h fbqh~|h ?vxhmmh th~lhtrecg fx~f mct~frhx~ bh lhrrh egrh~+lhtrecg 3 Mfxrc~e|frecg bhgjfjh~ ekkbefrh+khgr |h~f+r+hmmh flvxe|h 3 Mh| ^CH |fttmevxh+~cgr+hmmh| 3

    Bfg| mh lf| bh| ke||ecg| LF\ Lmc|h Fe~ \xt+tc~r%2- mh| ~jmh| bfg| mh| ac~lh| cllebhgrfmh| bh+kfgbhgr vxh mh Yj~cxgb lckkfgbh~[ ae~|rlcg|ebh~| flrecg| r`fr bc gcr egqcmqh r`h be~hlrfttmelfrecg ca f~khb ac~lh rc zf~g fgu tcrhg+

    refmmu `c|remh fjj~h||c~ hr vxh r`h x|h caac~lh kx|r fmzfu| nh ghlh||f~u fgb t~ctc~+recggfm' R`fr e| ~hf|cgfnmh eg egrhg|eru # bx~f+recg#fktmerxbh egrhg|er#bx~h hr rhgbxhbh| bckkfjh|%' Lh |cgr bhxp t`~f|h| ruth| bh\TEG\ \tlefm EG\r~xlrecg|% CRFG tcx~ mh|ct~frecg| bh nf||h egrhg|er fttmelfnmh||x~rcxr hg LF\ kfe| l`fvxh r`r~h f |h| \TEG\tf~relxme~h| hr lmf||eaeh|%'

    Mxreme|frecg bh| b~cgh| tcx~ lh ruth bh ke||ecgtc|h jfmhkhgr mh t~cnmkh bftt~lefrecg bh mf|erxfrecg jg~fmh hgqe~cgghkhgr bh mf cgh bhr~fqfem fx |hg| mf~jh% vxe thxr jgh~- qce~h afx|+|h~ mh|rekfrecg bh| bckkfjh| lcmmfr~fxpLBH%' Mhaahr qce~ mh kcgbh fx r~fqh~| bxghtfemmh bh |cbf aclfme|h |x~ mf lenmh hr |cg hgqe+~cgghkhgr ekkbefr hr hktl`h bfqce~ xghqe|ecg tmx| rhgbxh hphktmh bh mf temh bx tcgr-br~xerh tf~ xg ke||emh fmc~| vxxg r~feg hk+t~xgrfer mh tcgr lh kckhgr+m%'

    Mh| b~cgh| f~k| fxocx~b`xe- mhplhtrecg thxr+r~h bx ^hfth~ fk~elfeg- cgr xgh lftflerbhktc~r mekerh lh vxe bfg| lh~rfegh| |erxfrecg|

    hgr~fgh mf gcg t~ctc~recggfmer bh mf ~tcg|hfqhl mh| f~khkhgr| hktc~r|- hg b|fllc~b fqhlmf mce bh| lcgamer| f~k| McFL%'

    Bfxr~h tf~r- lcktf~h| xg fqecg bf~kh|- mf

    afenmh kcrc~e|frecg hr mf kf||h ~hmfreqhkhgr ~+bxerh bxg b~cgh mekerh |f lftfler haahlrxh~bh| \cT \`cz ca T~h|hglh% hr gcaa~h tf| bh tc|+|enemer bh \cA \`cz ca Ac~lh%'

    Bfg| mfqefrecg bh l`f||h- mf baegerecg bxg flrh`c|remh- bxgh egrhgrecg `c|remh vxe gh bncxl`htf| rcxocx~| |x~ xgh frrfvxh ekkeghgrh hr mf b+aegerecg bh| lcgrflr| tf~ c~b~h bl~ce||fgr bhbfgjh~c|er Lcgrflr `c|remh Nfgber Ncjhu Fke% h|r nehg lcggxh' Bfg| xg fqecg bf~kh|- mhtemcrh afer l`fgjh~ ekkbefrhkhgr mf lmf||eaelf+recg bx lcgrflr hg acglrecg bh| flrh| cx bh| eg+rhgrecg| `c|remh| bh |cg fbqh~|fe~h' Lckkhgrt~clbh~ fqhl xg b~cgh 3

    Mh| beaaelxmr| tcx~ xg b~cgh hg rh~kh| bh ^CHthxqhgr |h r~fbxe~h bh mf afcg |xeqfgrh ?

    + Ftt~lefrecg bh| flrh| cx bh| egrhgrecg|`c|remh 3 L`fkt bh qe|ecg- ftt~lefrecg hpflrh

    bh| kcxqhkhgr| bh| kcnemh| be|rfglh r~|lcx~rh 9

    + Rhkt| bh ~flrecg qe|++qe| bh mqcmxrecgbh mf |erxfrecg Rhkt| bh r~fg|ke||ecg bh| bcg+gh| ekfjh| fbberecgg fx rhkt| begrh~t~rf+recg tf~ xg cx tmx|ehx~| ct~frhx~|% 9

    + \fe|e~ mh| cttc~rxger| bh re~ vxe |cgr n~+qh| lcx~rh be|rfglh hr vxe vxhmvxhace| bhkfg+bhgr bh ~hbcxnmh~ mh re~ |e mfbqh~|fe~h ~x||e mhx~~h~ mh t~hkeh~ re~'

    + Mh| ^CH |cgr tmx| |ektmh| hg NQ^

    Nhucgb Qe|xfm ^fgjh% kfe| vxhm r`r~h fx+ocx~b`xe cxq~e~fer bh| ^CH rcxr NQ^ 3 HgNQ^- em afxr bhxp cx r~ce| lftrhx~| bebhgreaelf+recg fqfgr mcxqh~rx~h bx ahx' Hg Qe|xfm Ebhgreae+lfrecg ^fgjh- be|rfglh bh mc~b~h bh 6 444 k-lh|r xg hgjfjhkhgr lcknfr ~ftt~cl` vxe h|rhgjfj- lh vxxg b~cgh gh |h~f tf| lftfnmh bhafe~h fqfgr mcgjrhkt|'

    Bfg| xgh ke||ecg \HFB |xtt~h||ecg bh| bahg+|h| |cm+fe~ fbqh~|h|%- mh| ^CH hr mh| t~cnmkfre+vxh| tc|h| |cgr fgfmcjxh| lhmmh| bh mfe~+fe~'

    \h tc|h mh t~cnmkh bh mf gcrecg bh ke|h hg bfg+jh~ bh| ac~lh| fkeh|' Tcx~ haahlrxh~ lh ruth bhke||ecg- em h|r glh||fe~h bvxeth~ mh b~cgh bxgn~cxemmhx~ ~fbf~- bxg brhlrhx~ bh btf~r cxbf~~eqh ke||emh fmc~| vxh mh| f~cgha| gcg `fne+r| nf|hgr mhx~ fxrct~crhlrecg |x~ mf ax~reqer hrmf be|l~recg' Mh| ~jmh| bh lcknfr egrh~be|hgrjfmhkhgr bh t~cqcvxh~ hg qxh bhgjfjh~' Lht~egleth h|r+em fttmelfnmh fxp XF\ 3

    Cg |fth~cer bcgl vxh mh| vxh|recg| ~hmfreqh|fxp ^CH fttmelfnmh| fxp b~cgh| bh lcknfr |cgrmceg br~h ~|cmxh| hr vxh ?

    + Mfttmelfrecg be~hlrh bh| ^CH bh| l`f|+|hx~| lmf||evxh| fxp XLF\ tc|hgr bh gckn~hxpt~cnmkh|'

  • 8/2/2019 Les UCAS ont-ils une place dans les conflits futurs ?

    6/10

    1

    + Mf t~cnmkfrevxh hg c~b~h l~ce||fgr h|rmf |xeqfgrh ? Fe~ Egrh~belrecg F'E% \cxrehg Fe~^ftt~cl` LF\% \xtt~h||ecg bh| bahg|h| |cm+fe~ fbqh~|h| \HFB% + Bahg|h F~ehggh Fe~Bhahg|h%'

    + Mf t~cnmkfrevxh bh mf th~rh bxg f~c+gha fqfgr bcxq~e~ mh ahx h|r egfllhtrfnmh |x~ xgfqecg temcr- |h~f+r+hmmh fllhtrfnmh |x~ bh| XLF\ tmx|ehx~| kemmecg| bhx~c|- brhgx| vxhmvxh|befegh| bhphktmfe~h| 3

    + Mh| ^CH gh bhq~cgr tf| r~h xg a~heg mfqghkhgr bh| XLF\ kfe| bhq~cgr |u fbftrh~-t~cnfnmhkhgr fx t~ep bxgh fxjkhgrfrecg bh mflcktmhper' Lhle h|r khrr~h hg tf~fmmmh fqhlmh||c~ bh mf ox~ebelef~e|frecg bfg| mh| ct~frecg|kemerfe~h|'

    Bh| mefe|cg| |tleaevxh| tcx~ mX+LF\MXLF\ fufgr qclfrecg r~h ax~rea- em thxr fqce~nh|ceg bh mefe|cg| ax~reqh|- vxem |fje||h bh r~fg|+ke||ecg| be~hlrh| megh+ca+|ej`r cx MC\% cx bhmefe|cg| tf~ |frhmmerh| N+MC\ \frlck%'

    Xg |u|rkh bh r~fg|ke||ecg MC\ ax~rea tcx~~fer|h blmegh~ lckkh |xer ?

    + Bh| fgrhggh| be~hlreqh| |hlrc~ehmmh|%-~tf~reh| fxrcx~ bh mf tmfrh+ac~kh tmxrr tmfrh|vxh lcgac~kh|%' Hmmh| tcx~~cgr r~h flreqh|- ~h+

    a~cebeh| tf~ fe~ hg |h~qelh |x~ A>>%'+ Xgh nfgbh bh a~vxhglh| fqhl xgh ~ftebhfrrgxfrecg bx |ejgfm ke| nfgbh| I%'

    + Xgh ac~kh bcgbh afenmh t~cnfnemerbegrh~lhtrecg hr bh brhlrecg MTE#MTB% cnrh+gxh tf~ hphktmh tf~ mf rhl`gevxh brfmhkhgr bx|ejgfm tf~ |vxhglh be~hlrh'

    Lh |u|rkh bh r~fg|ke||ecg bh bcggh| |h~ferxreme| mf ace| tcx~ mh lcgr~mh lckkfgbh kfe|fx||e tcx~ r~fg|khrr~h mh| egac~kfrecg| t~cqh+gfgr bh| lftrhx~| qebc- ekfjh- \F^%'

    Mh| mekerh| bh mf t`u|evxh th~khrrhgr bh|t~h~bh| be|rfglh| bh r~fg|ke||ecg lckt~e|h| hgr~h>4 644 Ik hgr~h mh b~cgh hr mf tmfrh+ac~kh vxemh lcgr~mh%- |hmcg mh bner vxe |h~fer r~fg|ke|'

    Mh BcB fk~elfeg bc~h| hr bo mfgl mh bqh+mctthkhgr bxgh rhmmh mefe|cg bh bcggh| tcx~ hgbcrh~ |h| tmfrh|+ac~kh| ax~reqh| O\A- A>>- qcmx+recg| bh| P28 hr P2:%- lh|r mh |u|rkh KFBMbqhmctt tf~ mf |cler @f~~e|'

    Em afxb~f |fg| bcxrh tcx~ mh| XLF\- lckkh tcx~mh| b~cgh| KFMH hr @FMH xgh f~l`erhlrx~h bh

    r~fg|ke||ecg bh bcggh| tf~ |frhmmerh ~hbcgbfg+rh- mxgh nf| bner bbeh t~egletfmhkhgr fxlcgr~mh lckkfgbh bx b~cgh hr xgh bbeh t~eg+letfmhkhgr mf r~fg|ke||ecg `fxr bner bh| bcg+

    gh| lftrhx~|- kfe| tcxqfgr r~h xreme|h hg nflixt bh mf mefe|cg bh lcgr~mh lckkfgbh'

    Mh| mefe|cg| `fxr bner gh |cgr- hg jg~fm- tf|t~crjh| lcgr~h mh| egrh~a~hglh| qcmcgrfe~h| cxegqcmcgrfe~h|' Hg haahr- bxgh tf~r r~fg|khrr~h `fxr bner lcg|ckkh nhfxlcxt bh nfgbh bh a~+vxhglh- bfxr~h tf~r mh| rhl`gevxh| bh t~crhlrecgbh mf r~fg|ke||ecg glh||erhgr hmmh| fx||e nhfx+lcxt bh nfgbh' C~ mh| a~vxhglh| |cgr xgh ~h|+|cx~lh bh tmx| hg tmx| ~f~h hr l`~h' Fx aegfm- emafxr r~cxqh~ xg lckt~cke| hgr~h `fxr bner- ge+qhfx bh t~crhlrecg hr nfgbh bh a~vxhglh xreme|htf~ mh |u|rkh bh r~fg|ke||ecg'

    Mh L> tcx~ mXLF\ gh|r tf| l~erevxh tcx~ mh t~c+gcgl bh mfrrfvxh- tf~ lcgr~h mf mefe|cg bh bcg+gh| ekfjh |h~f bekhg|ecggfgrh hg amxp tcx~qfmebh~ mcnohlrea hr t~hgb~h mf ble|ecg bh a~ft+th~' Mf mefe|cg \FRLCK |h~f beaaelemh n~cxemmh~

    lf~ hmmh h|r be~ejh qh~| mh `fxr' Vxhm h|r mh rhkt|bh r~fg|ke||ecg kegekxk tcx~ t~hgb~h mf ble+|ecg bh a~ftth~- |fg| be|tc|h~ bxgh ekfjh hglcgregx lckkh xreme|h fxocx~b`xe 3 Mf ~tcg|hbthgb bh mf jfkkh bcnohlrea| qe|| aeph|-kcnemh|- bx~le|- mjh~|- hr bh| ^CH hg qejxhx~'Cg qcer vxh m fx||e mf vxh|recg h|r ftt~cacgbe~hg acglrecg bh| rhgbfglh| ~hrhgxh|'

    Mf ncxlmh CCBFMf ncxlmh CCBF Cn|h~qfrecg C~ehgrfrecg

    Ble|ecg Flrecg% bfg| xg lcknfr f|ukr~evxhc mf lenmh h|r qfgh|lhgrh tf~fr kceg| th~re+ghgrh lf~ hmmh gh |h ~hah~kh ofkfe| ft~| mcn|h~+qfrecg vxe |xer mflrecg mh NBF#NBE gh|r tf|r~| th~reghgr hr mh| bckkfjh| lfx|| beaaelemh| oxjh~%' Rcxr bfnc~b |e cg |egr~h||h mCn|h~qf+recg- cg khr mh bcejr |x~ xgh beaaelxmr kfohx~hvxe h|r bh ~ht~h~ xgh flreqer |x|thlrh cx `c|remhbfg| xgh cgh vxe thxr afe~h bh| lhgrfegh| bhik> hr c em gh |h tf||h ~ehg thgbfgr >< `hx~h|hr 88 kegxrh| tf~ ocx~' Bfxr~h tf~r- hgr~h mfl+recg hr mf gcxqhmmh c~ehgrfrecg- mh ncxlmfjh lck+

    tmhr thxr r~h egrh~~cktx hr ~h|r hg frrhgrh bhmc~ehgrfrecg |xeqfgrh tf~lh vxh mfbqh~|fe~h h|rr~| qfgh|lhgr- kcxqfgr' Lh|r mf ~fe|cg tcx~mfvxhmmh em afxr xg geqhfx bh bmjfrecg bh tmx|hg tmx| nf|- bh geqhfx JREF- |cx| JREF qce~hl`ha bh |hlrecg hr bh kceg| hg kceg| fx geqhfxct~frea cx |r~frjevxh' Mf bmjfrecg hpe|rhbhknmh tcx~ xg temcrh bf~cgha vxe tf~r fqhlbh| ^CH nehg rfnmeh| |x~ bh| lenmh| aeph| fx |cm-tf~ lcgr~h em afxr hg ~jmh jg~fmh xg LFCLftt~cqfm mftt~cnfrecg bx re~ tf~ mh TL ct~f+rea%' Hg Menuh- lhmxe bh Tcjjec ^hgfrelc hg mcl+

    lx~~hglh- LFCL CRFG |erx fx Gc~b bh mErfmeh'Lhrrh mcgjfrecg mf ace| jcj~ft`evxh hr hgrhkt| bh r~fg|ke||ecg bh| egac~kfrecg|- thx+qhgr hptmevxh~ hg tf~reh mf beaaelxmr bh r~ferh~ mh|

  • 8/2/2019 Les UCAS ont-ils une place dans les conflits futurs ?

    7/10

    :

    lenmh| kcxqfgrh| hr mj~h| bfg| mh b|h~r menuhgtf~ bh| fqecg| bf~kh| ~ftebh| kfe| thx hgbx+~fgr| |x~ cgh bh lcknfr hr fx||e mh| t~ctc| rh+gx| tf~ mh l`ha brfr+kfoc~ bh mf~kh bh mFe~a~fgfe|h vxe ~hlcggfe||fer vxh mh| rhkt| bh b+le|ecg bhqfehgr r~h ~fllcx~le|'

    Xgh beaa~hglh ektc~rfgrh hgr~h xg b~cgh re~hx~hr xg fqecg `fner- lh|r vxh memmxkegfrecg bh mflenmh afer qce~ mh kcgbh r~fqh~| xgh tfemmh bh|cbf fmc~| vxfqhl xg fqecg em u f haahlreqhkhgrmemmxkegfrecg aegh bx tcb kfe| mh temcrh jf~bh|h| uhxp tcx~ qce~ mhg|hknmh bx tfu|fjhlcgghph'

    Bfg| mh lcglhtr bh mf ncxlmh CCBF- cg thxr jf+mhkhgr fnc~bh~ tcx~ mh| b~cgh| mf lftfler bh~hke||ecgfnemer ~hrf~jhrregj% hr bh afe~h fqc~rh~xg re~- qef xgh mefe|cg bh bcggh| fqhl mf~kh'Afxr+em bh| lftrhx~| beaa~hgr| fqhl bh| l`fkt|

    mf~jh| tcx~ qce~ lr hr tc||bh~ mf lftflerbh ghxr~fme|h~ xg re~ hg bjfjhfgr |x~ xgh cghlcgghph bh memmxkegfrecg tcx~ vxem u fer mhkceg| bh bjr| lcmmfr~fxp tc||enmh|' H|r+lh vxhmcg lcg|h~qh m`ckkh bfg| mf ncxlmh xgh ace|mf~khkhgr re~- mf tc||enemer bh l`fgjh~ bh lenmhox|vxfx bh~geh~ eg|rfgr 3

    Mh| t~cnmkh| ~|cxb~hCxr~h mhx~ eglftfler ~hktme~ lh~rfegh| ke|+|ecg|- mf qxmg~fnemer tcrhgrehmmh bh| b~cgh| hk+

    tl`h- hmmh |hxmh- b*hgqe|fjh~ |~ehx|hkhgr xghktmce hplmx|ea bh lh ruth bh kcuhg|- kkh |emqcmxrecg bh m*f~kh f~ehggh h|r egmxlrfnmh'Mh| gcxqhmmh| rhl`gevxh| th~khrrhgr b|c~kfe|bh lcgaeh~ bh tmx| hg tmx| bh rl`h| bh| |u|r+kh| cx |cx|+|u|rkh| ~cncre|| ' Kfe| |e mh|kcuhg| fxrcgckh| hr fxrckfre|| |*fq~hgr ha+ahlreqhkhgr th~ac~kfgr| mc~|vx*em| |cgr xreme||hpflrhkhgr bfg| mh| lcgberecg| tcx~ mh|vxhmmh|em| cgr r t~cj~fkk| hr ctreke||- em h|r eg+lcglhqfnmh fxocx~b`xe bh |h t~eqh~ bh mf lftfle+r b*fbftrfrecg fttc~rh tf~ m*`ckkh- lh vx*fx+

    lxgh tcmuqfmhglh rhl`gevxh gh thxr hglc~h ~hk+tmflh~ bh afcg |fre|afe|fgrh'

    Fx tmfg ct~frecgghm- em afxb~f qebhkkhgrb*fnc~b |x~kcgrh~ mf ~relhglh bh| fqefrhx~| bnf~vxh~ bh mhx~| fqecg| tcx~ rm+temcrh~ bh| b~cgh| be|rfglh- lh vxe mhx~ |hk+nmh rcxocx~| thx jmc~ehxp' Cg f tf~m bh| ~jmh|bhgjfjhkhgr vxe bhq~cgr glh||fe~hkhgr |f+bftrh~ kfe| cg tcx~~fer jfmhkhgr |cxmhqh~ bh|t~cnmkh| gcg kceg| teghxp ? kfr~e|h bh mfqecmhglh fqhl bh| hgjeg| gcg `fner|- hktmce bhkfl`egh| lcgr~h bh| `ckkh| vxe lcgbxer mmcejghkhgr kcrecgghm hgr~h mh re~hx~ hr mflenmh hr fxp t~cnmkh| r`evxh| hr |clerfxp vxhlhrrh xreme|frecg tcx~~fer |cxmhqh~'

    Em afxb~f fx||e blebh~ bh m*ektc~rfglh ~hmfreqh bcggh~ mf ax~reqer tf~ ~fttc~r mf kfgxq~f+nemer bx b~cgh hr |cg fxrc t~crhlrecg' Flrxhmmh+khgr- em |hknmh vx*cg t~a~h fll~cr~h mf ax~reqe+r tmxrr vxh m*fjemer hr mf |x~qeqfnemer- lh vxelcgbxer |x~ mh| bkcg|r~frhx~| m*fn|hglh bhahgr~h| ~fucggfgrh|- bh b~eqh| hr bh| hgr~h|

    bfe~ ~flrhx~ kf|vxh|'\x~ mh tmfg rhl`gevxh- mh| b~cgh| |cgr bthg+bfgr| bh| mefe|cg| bh bcggh| vxe bceqhgr r~h|lx~e|h| hr bx~leh| rcxr hg t~|h~qfgr mh| ~h|+|cx~lh| bx |thlr~h bh a~vxhglh|- mhx~ qxmg~fne+mer bcer r~h ~bxerh |fg| tcx~ fxrfgr mh| fmcx~+be~ hr mh| lcktmhpeaeh~'

    Hg lh vxe lcglh~gh megrhmmejhglh nc~b cx fx|cm- mh| |cmxrecg| fttmelfnmh| xg b~cgh E\^ hr xg XLF\ |hknmhgr beqh~jh~' Mh| b~cgh| bh |x~+qhemmfglh cgr nh|ceg bh r~fg|khrr~h nhfxlcxt bh

    bcggh|' Mf lftfler bh| c~begfrhx~| hknf~vx|hr mf qerh||h bh r~ferhkhgr bh| bcggh| gh |hk+nmhgr tf| tc|h~ bh t~cnmkh fmc~| vxh mf |frx~f+recg bh| nfgbh| bh a~vxhglh|- cg mf qx h|r xgtcegr bx~' Tcx~ mh| XLF\- cg gh mhx~ bhkfgbhbh r~fg|khrr~h vxfx t~cgcgl bh mfrrfvxh |x~mf lenmh- mfxrcgckeh kfpekfmh h|r mf qceh t~eqem+jeh'

    Mh lulmh bh qeh bxg |u|rkh XLF\ gh t~qcer tf|xg btmcehkhgr th~kfghgr hr em thxr r~h lcgc+kevxh bh mhx~ fttmevxh~ bh| rhl`gevxh| ctreke+|h| tcx~ mh |rclifjh mcgjxh bx~h rcxr hg hpe+

    jhfgr xgh ~hke|h hg xq~h ~ftebh hr |~h |fg|t~fqe|' \e mflvxe|erecg- mh t~ep bxg XLF\ |h~flcktf~fnmh lhmxe bxg l`f||hx~ `fner8 hr k+kh |e mh ~hrcx~ b*egqh|re||hkhgr g*h|r tf| f||x~tf~ xgh t~cbxlrecg |xaae|fgrh- em afxb~f hgr~h+t~hgb~h bh| rxbh| bh qehemme||hkhgr bh| `xemh|hr mxn~eaefgr|- mf|rck~h| hr fxr~h| vxethkhgr| t~hktrecg |x~ lh ruth bh kfl`egh \e cg b|e~hlh~gh~ mh lcr bh tc||h||ecg bxg XLF\- em afxb~fbe|tc|h~ fx||e bh| lcr| bh t~cbxlrecg hr bhkfegrehg hg lcgberecg ct~frecgghmmh bh lh| f+~cgha| bcgr mh t~ep xgerfe~h bflvxe|erecg- qcvxflrxhmmhkhgr- |h |erxh fxrcx~ bh "14 Kemmecg|'

    Mf ~bxlrecg bh| lcr|Vxh lh |cehgr bh| XLF\- bh| XF\- bh| XJ\ Jtcx~ j~cxgb%- bh| XX\ X tcx~ xgbh~zfrh~% cxbh| X\\\ \ tcx~ |hf |x~aflh%- rcx| lh| lcglhtr|bxreme|frecg cgr bhxp tcegr| hg lckkxg ? em| qe+|hgr ~bxe~h mf tmflh bh m`ckkh hg rfgr vxc+t~frhx~ hptc| fx ahx hr bekegxh~ mh| lcr|'

    Tcx~ lh~rfeg|- mh| rhkt| |cgr t~cl`h| c nhfx+lcxt bh acglrecg| ~hktmeh| tf~ m*fqecg bh lcknfr

    r~fberecgghm |h~cgr haahlrxh| tf~ bh| b~cgh|'Bfg| bh| t~ecbh| bh nxbjhr| bh mf bahg|hlcgr~fegr|- lh lcglhtr h|r tf~relxme~hkhgr egr+~h||fgr bfg| mf kh|x~h c lh| f~cgha| |cgr

  • 8/2/2019 Les UCAS ont-ils une place dans les conflits futurs ?

    8/10

    0

    r`c~evxhkhgr bh lcglhtrecg nhfxlcxt tmx||ektmh vx*xg fqecg bh lcknfr hr bcgl nhfxlcxtkceg| cg~hxp' Mh ~e|vxh rfgr vxh m*xg t~hgghegqerfnmhkhgr mf tmflh bh m*fxr~h'

    Fqhl mhx~| A61 btmcu| hg E~fi hr hg Faj`fge|+rfg- mh| Fk~elfeg| cgr afer mhx~| lcktrh| hr cgrrhgbfglh ~hktmflh~ mh| fqecg| temcr| tf~ bh|XF\ f~k| ^hfth~ T~hbfrc~ N%' Lh|r xg |ejghvxe gh r~ckth tf| hg kfre~h bh ~fttc~r lcr#haaelfler' Kfe| em h|r nehg t~le| vxh lh| b~cgh|f~k| gh |h |cgr ~qm| fqfgrfjhxp vxhg r`+r~h nf||h egrhg|er hr fqhl bh| bahg|h| |cm+fe~thx ektc~rfgrh|'

    Mh jcxqh~ghkhgr fk~elfeg hgqe|fjh xg q`elx+mh ct~frecgghm XLF\ xg t~ep bh ~hqehgr xgerfe+~h ega~ehx~ bxg reh~| fx O\A hr xgh ~bxlrecgbh| lcr| bfg| mh lulmh bh qeh rcrfm bh 84 04 (lcktf~ xg h|lfb~cg rflrevxh b*fqecg| flrxhm|'

    Mh| je|hkhgr| blcgckeh| ~|ebh~fehgr bfg|mhgr~fghkhgr- mf ac~kfrecg- m*hgr~hrehg- mh lf~+nx~fgr hr xgh tf~reh bh| |xorecg| glh||fe~h|ega~f|r~xlrx~h|- te|rh|- lcgr~mh bx r~fael%'Kfe| fxlxg XLF\ ct~frecgghm gh qcmh fxocx~b+`xe hr em afxr bcgl |h jf~bh~ bhpr~ftcmh~ bh kf+ge~h r~ct `reqh mh| ~hrcx~| bhpt~ehglh bh|b~cgh| f~k| |x~ mh| XLF\ hr hg tf~relxmeh~ mh|jfeg| h|lcktr| hg th~|cgghm- hg xreme|fgr mh|b~cgh| f~k|- gh |cgr tf| fx ~hgbh+qcx| tcx~meg|rfgr1'

    Tmx| lh| |u|rkh| eg`fner| hknf~vxhgr bh

    megrhmmejhglh hr |cgr fxrckfre|| - kceg|em| bthgbhgr bh m`ckkh hr bh| mefe|cg| bh bcg+gh|- lh vxe t~|hgrh bfg| lh~rfegh| ke||ecg| bh|fqfgrfjh| ct~frecgghm| qebhgr| kfe| egqh~|h+khgr xgh |ct`e|relfrecg r~ct ektc~rfgrh qehg+b~fer bekegxh~ mh| jfeg| aegfgleh~| h|t~|' Hghaahr- mhpr~fc~begfe~h hprhg|ecg bh| |tleaelf+recg| hpt~ekh| tf~ mh| |h~qelh| fk~elfeg| aferl~fegb~h bh tf||h~ tf~ t~caer| hr th~rh| mh| jfeg|frrhgbx| tf~ megr~cbxlrecg bh lh| kfl`egh|:'

    Hg kfre~h bhgr~fghkhgr hr bh vxfmeaelfrecg-

    mh| jfeg| thxqhgr r~h ektc~rfgr|' MCRFG fke| hg >441 mh GFRC \rfgbf~befrecg Fj~hh+khgr \RFGFJ% 21:4 faeg bh baege~ mh| ~jmh|bhgr~fghkhgr hr mh| vxfmeaelfrecg| ~hvxe|h|tcx~ xg ct~frhx~ XF\ Bh|ejgfrhb XF\ Cth~f+rc~ BXC%' \cg fgghph baeger mh| geqhfxp bhlcggfe||fglh| flvx~e~ rcxr hg t~le|fgr vxhlh| geqhfxp bthgbhgr bh mf lfrjc~eh bh b~cghke| hg xq~h hr bh mf lmf||h bh mh|tflh f~ehghkt~xgr' Mh| Fk~elfeg| vxe btmcehgr bhtxe|f||h mcgjrhkt| hr hg j~fgb gckn~h rcx| ruth|bh b~cgh| |hknmhgr fbctrh~ mh lx~|x| bxg ft+

    t~hgre||fjh bx kreh~ bh nf|h |x~ fqecg temcr-xg tf||fjh bh r~ce| fg| kfpekxk hg h|lfb~cgbh b~cgh| txe| xg ~hrcx~ qhgrxhm hg h|lfb~cgfqecg|' Kfe| m hglc~h ~ehg gh|r nehg aej' MX\

    Fe~ Ac~lh hgr~fgh bh| temcrh| vxfmeae| tcx~lcgbxe~h mh| T~hbfrc~ hg ct~frecg| hpr~ehx~h|rfgbe| vxh mX\ F~ku- fqhl |h| XFQ Zf~~ec~lcktf~fnmh|0- ghpejh tf| bh| temcrh| lcgae~k|'Mf |erxfrecg h|r vxf|e ebhgrevxh hg A~fglh c xgj~cxth bh r~fqfem egrh~f~kh| f r lcg|rerx'Mf~kh bh mFe~ cxq~h lhrrh |tlefmer fxp caae+

    leh~| temcrh| hr gfqejfrhx~| |u|rkh| bf~kh|fmc~| vxh mf~kh bh Rh~~h f l`ce|e bh| |cx|+caaeleh~| f~remmhx~| fqhl xgh ac~kfrecg f~cgfxre+vxh FMFR tcx~ f||xkh~ lh| acglrecg|'

    Kfe| kkh |e mcg hpejh bxg rmtemcrh mh|vxfmeaelfrecg| bxg temcrh bh lcknfr- em |h~fvxfgb kkh nehg kceg| mcgj ac~kh~ bfg| |f|tlefmer b~cgh| ' \x~ mh tmfg ct~frecgghm-mhgr~fghkhgr bh| vxeth| |h~f ~fme| kfoc~e+rfe~hkhgr tf~ mf |ekxmfrecg hr bcgl kcegb~hlcr' M*hgr~fghkhgr ~hm |h~f ~bxer hr tcx~mh| fttf~hem| hg qcm xg cx bhxp |xaae~cgr- mh| fx+r~h| ~h|rfgr |cx| lclcg- tcx~ fqce~ xgh xreme|f+recg t~cl`h bh lhmmh| bh| ke||emh|' Bfg| mh lulmhbh qeh bxg fqecg bh lcknfr temcr- hgqe~cg 54 (bx rhkt| h|r lcg|fl~ fxp qcm| bh ac~kfrecg hrbhgr~fghkhgr- 64( thegh fx lcknfr ~hm'Fqhl bh| XLF\- lh ~fttc~r bhq~fer l`fgjh~ bhkfge~h |ejgeaelfreqh' Em| fx~cgr nh|ceg bh rh|r|ncxr hg ncxr t~ecbevxhkhgr tcx~ q~eaeh~ mf aef+nemer bx |u|rkh kfe| hpejh~cgr nhfxlcxtkceg| bh qcm| ~hm|'

    Bfg| mh lcr bh tc||h||ecg bxg fqecg bh lck+

    nfr- mflvxe|erecg |h |erxh `fxrhx~ bh >8 (- mh|:8 ( ~h|rfgr| lckt~hgghgr mh| lcr| bh acgl+recgghkhgr hr bh ke|h hg kfegrehg hg lcgberecgct~frecgghmmh KLC% hr bh kfegrhgfglh ~tf~+re| |x~ r~hgrh cx vxf~fgrh fg|' Mh| a~fe| b*hptmce+rfrecg hg rhkt| bh tfep b*xg XLF\ bhq~fehgrr~h mf~jhkhgr ega~ehx~|' Xgh ~bxlrecg ektc~+rfgrh bh lh| bhxp bh~geh~| tc|rh| thxr th~khrr~hbh| lcgckeh| |xn|rfgrehmmh|'

    MXF\ T~hbfrc~ F h|r xg q`elxmh f||h |ektmh hr~x|revxh- |f aefnemer fxocx~b`xe h|r thx bhl`c|h t~| lcktf~fnmh lhmmh bh| fqecg| bhlcknfr fmc~| vxem u f vxhmvxh| fggh| mh ~frectcx~ 644 444 `hx~h| bh qcm rfer |xt~ehx~ bxgcx bhxp c~b~h| bh j~fgbhx~5' Lh|r mf kkh l`c+|h tcx~ mh Jmcnfm @fzi- ghrrhkhgr tmx| |ct`e|re+vx'

    Xgh ace| vxh mh| hpejhglh| tcx~ mh| b~cgh| |h~cgrkehxp baegeh| hr |rfneme|h|- em h|r r~| q~fe|hk+nmfnmh vxh mh lcr bh| b~cgh| E\^ hr XF\ f~k|bhq~fer r~h ~hmmhkhgr m*fqfgrfjh bh| |u|rkh|gcg `fner| tf~ ~fttc~r xg fqecg bh lcknfrlmf||evxh' Tcx~ mh| XLF\- lcktrh rhgx bh mhx~

    |ct`e|relfrecg tc||enmh |xerh xgh hpt~h||ecg bhnh|ceg| ct~frecgghm| gcg kfr~e|h - xghrxbh lcktmkhgrfe~h- fx lf| tf~ lf|- |h~fer g+lh||fe~h fqfgr bh tcxqce~ mfaae~kh~'

  • 8/2/2019 Les UCAS ont-ils une place dans les conflits futurs ?

    9/10

    5

    Mf tmflh bh m`ckkhMf tmflh bh m`ckkh bfg| mf ncxlmh tc|h jfmh+khgr xg t~cnmkh f~bx' Mct~frhx~ btc~r |hr~cxqh kfegrhgfgr `c~| bx l`fkt bfaa~cgrh+khgr hr em h|r |x|lhtrenmh bh bmeq~h~ bh| f~kh|

    |x~ lh r`r~h fqhl rcxrh| mh| lcg|vxhglh| vxehg blcxmhgr' Mh| hg|hejghkhgr| bh| lcgamer| ~+lhgr| kcgr~hgr tf~ hphktmh vxh mmcejghkhgrkcrecgghm bx l`fkt bh nfrfemmh ektmevxh lh~+rh| kceg| bh |r~h|| tcx~ mh temcrh kfe| thxr+r~hkceg| bh ~hrhgxh bfg| mxreme|frecg bh mf qecmhg+lh'

    Em h|r r~| beaaelemh bh t~qce~ fxocx~b`xe mf bfrhb*fttf~erecg bxgh q~erfnmh egrhmmejhglh f~reae+lehmmh FE% bh|reg xg fxrckfrh' Mf mce bh Kcc+~h acx~ger bh| t~qe|ecg| |x~ mh gckn~h bh r~fg+|e|rc~| tf~ lk> |x~ xgh txlh mhlr~cgevxh hr fmc~|

    vxem u hg f t~| bxg kemmef~b fxocx~b`xe- em u hgfx~f lh~rfeghkhgr tmx|ehx~| kemmef~b| bfg|kceg| bxgh blhggeh' Kfe| kfmj~ lhrrh bhg|eae+lfrecg vxe ftt~cl`h mh| lf~flr~e|revxh| ghx~c+gfmh| bxg lh~qhfx `xkfeg- mh| lftfler| bft+t~hgre||fjh hr bh ~fe|cgghkhgr ~amhph bxg temc+rh hpt~ekhgr gh |cgr tf| hglc~h tc~rh bh mfkfl`egh' Mf th~lhtrecg bh mekkbefrhr -mfgfmu|h hg mejgh bh mf |erxfrecg |h ~qmhgr hp+r~khkhgr lcrhx|h| hg t~clh||x| begrhmmejhglhf~reaelehmmh- bftt~hgre||fjh ~ftebh- bh lcgqh~+jhglh bh| fmjc~er`kh| F lh geqhfx- cg gh|r

    tmx| bfg| mfxrckfre|frecg hr mfttmelfrecg bh ~+jmh| nehg baegeh|- cg h|r bfg| mfbftrfrecg rhkt|~hm' Mh r~ferhkhgr lcjgerea bxgh |erxfrecg bh`fxr geqhfx bhkfgbh bh| rhkt| bh r~ferhkhgrbh mc~b~h bh vxhmvxh| |hlcgbh| fx kfpekxk hrcg h|r fxocx~b`xe r~| mceg bh lh| th~ac~kfglh|'Lh r~ferhkhgr bh meg|rfgr t~|hgr eglcknh hglc+~h xg `xkfeg- vxe bcer mh afe~h |hxm'

    Mh |hxm hphktmh bh lcknfr fe~+fe~- bfg| xgh |e+rxfrecg rflrevxh |ektmh bh xg lcgr~h xg- lckkhcg mf bo khgrecgg- |h|r b~cxm hg >44> fx

    bh||x| bh Nfjbfb fx br~ekhgr bx b~cgh f~k'Mh ocx~ gh|r tf| qhgx c xg l`f||hx~ ~cncrtcx~~f nfrr~h cx |x~tf||h~ mh| vxfmer| rhl`ge+vxh| bxg temcrh bh lcknfr- xg ocx~ thxr+r~h-kfe| mh bmfe gh|r tf| l`eaa~fnmh' Bfg| mf ahxemmhbh ~cxrh XF\ >44:+>4 fk~elfegh- mh ~h|tcg+|fnmh ~hlcggfr bfemmhx~| vxh tcx~ mctrecg bxg|u|rkh rcrfmhkhgr fxrcgckh cg gf tf| lhgeqhfx hr a~fgl`hkhgr- hg qhge~ ncxr- lhmfqf t~hgb~h bh gckn~hx|h| fggh| '

    Em h|r beaaelemh bfnc~bh~ ele mh| t~cnmkh| bmelfr|br`evxh vxe |h tc|hgr bfg| mfaa~cgrhkhgr hgr~h

    xg ~cncr hr xg @ckkh' Bh| t`emc|ct`h|- bh|egjgehx~|- bh| l`h~l`hx~| hr bh| xgeqh~|erfe~h||h thgl`hgr flrxhmmhkhgr |x~ lh qf|rh |xohr |c+lerfm' F mxe |hxm- lh |xohr afer mcnohr bh r~| gck+

    n~hx|h| rxbh| hr k~erh~fer lh~rfeghkhgr xgbqhmctthkhgr bbe'

    Lcglmx|ecg|Mh| b~cgh| f~ehg| XF\% cgr r- ox|vx kfeg+rhgfgr- xreme|| tcx~ bh| ke||ecg| bh ~hg|hejgh+

    khgr- bh |x~qhemmfglh- bflvxe|erecg bh lenmh| hrbh ~hlcggfe||fglh' Fqhl mh| XF\ f~k| hr bh+kfeg mh| b~cgh| bh lcknfr XLF\%- lh|r xg gcx+qhfx l`fter~h vxe |cxq~h tcx~ mf~cgfxrevxh-lf~ em gh |fjer tf| xgevxhkhgr bh kfl`egh|lcgr~mh| be|rfglh- kfe| bh q~erfnmh| fqecg|bh lcknfr- tmx| cx kceg| fxrcgckh|- lftfnmh|bh |fbftrh~ hr begrh~a~h~ bfg| mhgqe~cgghkhgrbfg| mhvxhm em| qcmxh~cgr'

    Egbxnerfnmhkhgr- mh| |u|rkh| f~ehg| gcg `fne+r| |h~cgr ftthm|- mfqhge~- cllxth~ xgh tmflhl~ce||fgrh fx |heg bh| c~jfge|frecg| kemerfe~h| bhtfu| vxe tf~qehgb~cgr kfr~e|h~ tmheghkhgrt m x | e h x ~ | b c k f e g h | r h l ` g c m c j e v x h |gfgcrhl`gcmcjeh|- lcktc|fgr| egrhmmejhgr|-rhl`gcmcjeh| bh megac~kfrecg- h|tflh- |lehglh|lcjgereqh|%' Mf kfrx~er bh| |u|rkh| bthg+b~f bx `fxr geqhfx begrh~be|letmegf~er vxe |h~ffrrhegr bfg| mftt~cl`h lcglhtrxhmmh hg kfre~hbh bqhmctthkhgr hr bh ~fme|frecg- kfe| fx||ebeg|h~recg bclr~egfmh bh lh| |u|rkh| bfg| mh||u|rkh| bf~kh| hpe|rfgr|' Em ghg bhkhx~h tf|kceg| vxh |e mh| b~cgh| E\^ cgr lcgvxe| mhx~|mhrr~h| bh gcnmh||h bfg| mf tfgctmeh bh| kcuhg|-mh| b~cgh| bh lcknfr |cgr ftthm|- hxp- lcgvx~e~ bh| gel`h| tcx~ f~~eqh~ |ektc|h~bfg| mhgjfjhkhgr hr mh| lcknfr| axrx~|'

    Mf baegerecg bh bclr~egh| hr bh lcglhtr| bhk+tmce tcx~ xg XLF\ h|r ekt~freqh tcx~ gh tf|fncxre~ bh| |cmxrecg| acgbh| xgevxhkhgr |x~xgh ftt~cl`h rhl`gcmcjevxh lckkh lh|r mh lf|hglc~h fxocx~b`xe' Mf kfge~h bcgr em| ~tcg+b~cgr fxp bae| tc|| h|r mf lmha tcx~ a~fgl`e~ mht~cl`feg |hxem bh m*`e|rce~h bh m*fqefrecg hr ~hbh|+|egh~ mh qcm bx axrx~'

    Em lcgqehgr bh t~|h~qh~ mf tmflh bh m`ckkhbfg| lh| lcgamer| bh tmx| hg tmx| hg tmx| b|`x+kfge||' Bfg| mf ncxlmh ble|ecgghmmh hr hg tf~+relxmeh~ bcxqh~rx~h bx ahx hr bh| ~jmh| bhgjf+jhkhgr- mh| |l`kf| bh thg|h vxe lf~flr~e|hgrm@ckkh bhq~cgr lcgregxh~ bh |hpt~ekh~ fxr~fqh~| bh| kfl`egh| vxe hgjfjh~cgr gcg tf| mhlcknfr lh |h~f tcx~ mcgjrhkt| hglc~h mct~f+rhx~ btc~r vxe blebh~f% kfe| |hxmhkhgr mft`f|h- tx~hkhgr rhl`gevxh- bh mf bmeq~fglh bh|f~kh|'

    Em h|r eglcgrh|rfnmh vxh mf lxmrx~h bh| ohxp qebc`fnerxh mh| lfb~h| hr mh| axrx~| blebhx~| xghb|`xkfge|frecg bh mf jxh~~h' Vxhg |h~f+r+embhkfeg mc~|vxh mhgghke gh |h~f tmx| th~x vx

  • 8/2/2019 Les UCAS ont-ils une place dans les conflits futurs ?

    10/10

    64

    r~fqh~| bh| |hg|hx~| mhlr~cgevxh| hg haahlrxfgrbh| cn|h~qfrecg| ncggh be|rfglh bh |lx~er 3Hr hg tcx||fgr mh ~fe|cgghkhgr xg thx tmx| mceg-vxfbqehgb~f+r+em mc~|vxxg ac|| rhl`gcmcjevxhe~~frr~ftfnmh |tf~h~f mh| rfr| bcr| bh b~cgh|hr bh ~cncr| rxhx~| bh lhxp vxe hg |h~cgr b+tcx~qx| 3 \e xgh jxh~~h hgr~h `xkfeg| h|r bo

    beaaelemhkhgr fllhtrfnmh vxh be~h bxgh jxh~~h bhkfl`egh| lcgr~h bh| `xkfeg| 3 H|r+lh t~ct~h+khgr ekthg|fnmh hr mh| b~cgh| f~k| tcx~~fehgr+em| bfg| lh lf| ~ht~|hgrh~ xgh fxr~h ac~kh bhbe||xf|ecg 3

    Kel`hm F|hglec

    k'f|hglecDa~|r~frhjeh'c~jMh| ctegecg| hpt~ekh| ele

    ghgjfjhgr vxh mf ~h|tcg|fnemer

    bh mhx~ fxrhx~'

    Gcrh|6' XLF\ ? Xgkfgghb Lcknfr Fh~efm \u|rhk' Mh \ tcx~\u|rhk bh mfl~cgukh XLF\ h|r t~a~ bc~gfqfgr fx Qtcx~ Qh`elmh bh mfl~cgukh XLFQ' Lhle- tcx~ nehg eg|e|rh~|x~ mh afer vxh mh q`elxmh f~ehg gh|r vxxg kfemmcg bx

    |u|rkh bfg| mhvxhm em |egrj~h hr |fg| mhvxhm em gh|r ~ehg'>' Oc`g T' Oxkth~- LHK X\ Fe~ Ac~lh- blhkn~h >44 kfe >466' Em afxb~fer fx rcrfm- 65> th~+|cggh| tcx~ afe~h qcmh~ xg h|lfb~cg bh ^hfth~'

    :' ^fttc~r bfxber bh oxeg >44< bx Jcqh~ghkhgr Fllcxg+regj Caaelh JFC% bfg| mhvxhm em khr vxhmvxh| ~|h~qh| mhgb~cer bh mf kxmretmelfrecg bh| nh|ceg| ct~frecgghm|fxpvxhm| mh| |u|rkh| bh b~cgh| bceqhgr ~tcgb~h'

    0' ^cnh~r Jfrh|- \hl~rfe~h mf Bahg|h- Be|lcx~| mFe~Zf~ Lcmmjh- Kfpzhmm Fe~ Ac~lh Nf|h- Fmf- 440'

    5' Rfnmhfx bh mf cfbkft XF\ >44:+>4- t' 648'

    ^hr~cxqhz rcxrh mflrxfmer hr mh| txnmelfrecg| bh mf Acgbfrecg tcx~ mf ^hl`h~l`h \r~frjevxh |x~ ?

    Z Z Z ' A ^ \ R ^ F R H J E H ' C ^ J

    mailto:[email protected]?subject=Concernant%20la%20note%20n%E0%B0%B7/11http://www.frstrategie.org/http://www.frstrategie.org/http://www.frstrategie.org/http://www.frstrategie.org/http://www.frstrategie.org/http://www.frstrategie.org/mailto:[email protected]?subject=Concernant%20la%20note%20n%E0%B0%B7/11