development of msc regional pm air quality model: aurams mike moran, wanmin gong, paul makar, ashu...
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Development of MSC Regional
PM Air Quality Model: AURAMS
Mike Moran, Wanmin Gong, Paul Makar, Ashu Dastoor, Sunling Gong, and Balbir Pabla Air Quality Modelling & Integration Division Air Quality Research Branch, Downsview
Véronique Bouchet, Sophie Cousineau, Louis-Philippe Crevier, Stéphane Gaudreault, and Sylvain Ménard
Applications en modélisation de la qualité de l'airCentre Météorologique Canadien, Dorval
Presentation for 2004 AQRB Midterm Review – Smog Session Downsview, Ontario 26 October 2004
Talk Outline
Status of Deliverables
Other Achievements & Activities
Planned Activities
Results and Findings
EVALUATION
DEVELOPMENT
APPLICATIONS
EVALUATION
DEVELOPMENT
NOW
Comment: Have Reached A New Stage
THEN
Status of FY04/05 Deliverables
# Deliverable Due Date
1 Multi-Processor Version of AURAMS
May 2004
2 Submission of Two AURAMS Manuscripts
June 2004
3 Real-Time Forecast Support for ICARTT
July 2004
Deliverable 1
1. Multi-processor version of AURAMS (May 04)
OpenMP multi-processor version was released 24 May 2004 (AURAMS version 1.0)
New version is a factor of 5 faster on the IBM cluster at Dorval than the previous version of AURAMS
New version was essential to support ICARTT experiment beginning in July 2004
MSC personnel (A. Kallaur, B. Pabla, B. He) involved in the code speed-up effort directed by P. Makar received an AQRB Instant Award in July
Deliverable 2
2. Submission of 2 AURAMS manuscripts June04
Delayed to later in FY by preparations for ICARTT field experiment and by work on 2004 Canadian Acid Rain Science Assessment
Relevant to public release of AURAMS code planned for April 2005
Deliverable 33. Real-time forecast support for ICARTT July 04
•Experimental AURAMS real-time daily 48-hour forecasts to support both ICARTT field program and real-time AQ model intercomparison started on July 1, ran throughout Cleveland field project period (July 20Aug. 18), and are continuing indefinitely
•The Air Quality Model Applications Group provided 24/7 support for the R-T AURAMS forecasts and delivered forecasts to NOAA for R-T intercomparison
•3 AURAMS scientists served (sequentially) in the field as AQ forecasters to support MSC flight operations
ICARTT (http://www.al.noaa.gov/ICARTT)
International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and
TransformationLarge AQ field experiment over eastern North America and north Atlantic Ocean
July-August 2004, eastern North America (mainly)
Over 500 scientists involved
NOAA, NASA, U.S. Dept of Energy, MSC, Caltech, Harvard, U. Maryland, U. New Hampshire, New York State U., York U., Dalhousie U.
MSC ICARTT CAMPAIGN
The Canadian campaign was designed to address some AQ forecasting shortcomings. There were two theatres of operation.
Cleveland (85%): Chemical Transformation and transport by Clouds (CTC)
• Improve the way AQ models represent aerosol and cloud processes;• More comprehensively evaluate the performance of MSC AQ models
Bangor (15%): Transport Into the Maritimes (TIMs)
• Investigate LRTAP from Washington-Boston corridor
Forecasting Product: 6-Panel Animation of AURAMS
Sfc SO2, p-SO4, p-NO3, H2O2, O3, NOx Concentration
Fields
Forecasting Product: 4-Sided Vertical Cross
Section
Animation of SO2, p-SO4, p-NO3, O3, and NOx Conc.
Fields
Vertically-integrated p-SO4
2- production in cloud
Forecast Product: 4-Panel Animation of Selected AURAMS Cloud and Aqueous-Phase Chemistry Fields
Vertically-integrated p-SO4
2- production in clear air
Cloud fraction at 1225 m
Cloud liquid water content at 1225 m
ICARTT Real-Time Model Intercomparison Model intercomparison (O3 at AIRMAP & AIRNOW stations)
• Baron/MCNC MAQSIP (45, 15km)
• MSC CHRONOS (21 km)
• MSC AURAMS (42 km)
• NOAA WRF-CHEM (27, 12 km)
• NOAA/EPA CMAQ-ETA (12 km)
• U of Iowa STEM (60, 12, 4km)
And ensemble AQ forecasts!
Example for Chebogue Point onJuly 21, 2004 during an episode in the Maritimes (aloft)
Other Achievements & Activities
Completion of final version of the section on AURAMS results for 2 case studies and 5 scenarios for the EC/EPA PM Transboundary Transport Assessment report; this study represents the first policy application of AURAMS (cf. Results and Findings)
Implementation of a plume-rise algorithm for major point sources & an improved SOA formation algorithm
Development of AURAMS modelling plans as part of the draft science plans for two proposed field experiments (Prairie 2005, SwOn/SeMi 2006);
Delivery of AURAMS-related presentations at 7 conference/workshops , 2 seminars, and 1 media briefing in first 6 months of FY
Prairie 2005Prairie 2005
• Air-quality model forecasts (AURAMS, CHRONOS) Air-quality model forecasts (AURAMS, CHRONOS) used to deploy mobile measurement platforms.used to deploy mobile measurement platforms.
• Platforms to measure PM, OPlatforms to measure PM, O33 and precursor and precursor concentrationsconcentrations and concentration and concentration fluxesfluxes. .
• Post-campaign simulations (AURAMS, CHRONOS, Post-campaign simulations (AURAMS, CHRONOS, CMAQ)CMAQ)
a)a)What are the What are the measuredmeasured advective mass fluxes of advective mass fluxes of PM, OPM, O33 and precursors across arbitrary (e.g., and precursors across arbitrary (e.g., politically defined) boundaries (focus on Alberta)? politically defined) boundaries (focus on Alberta)?
b)b)What are the What are the modelledmodelled advective mass fluxes… … advective mass fluxes… …across the same boundaries?across the same boundaries?
c)c) How well does (b) match (a)?How well does (b) match (a)?
PIs: Brian Wiens, Paul Makar - MSC
BAQSmet 2006BAQSmet 2006
(1) Are AQ and meteorological estimates of boundary layer heightconsistent?
(2) How does the Detroit urban boundary layer affect AQ in Windsor? Are current weather forecast and air quality models capable of predicting the existence of this region?
(3) Characterization of lake breezes, met and AQ:how may the measurements and modelling be used to distinguish between local and long-range transport impacts on the airshed?
(4) What is the impact of lake-breeze generated convection on local air-quality? How well do meteorological and air-quality models simulate this convection, and the associated vertical transport of pollutants?
Again, AURAMS forecasts to be used to deploy aircraft and ground-based measurement platforms.
Ontario Region project advised by AQRB measurement and modelling science:
Planned Activities (1) Preparation of 2 manuscripts (cf. Deliverable 2)
Delivery of at least one more new model version
•Continuing work on AURAMS performance eval’n:
–Pacific2001
–CMAQ-AURAMS intercomparison for two cases (joint with OME)
–ICARTT real-time model intercomparison
–ICARTT field data eval’n (Convair, ozonesondes)
–other periods
Planned Activities (2)
Continuing work on further improvements to AURAMS, including
• “on-the-fly” Aeolian dust and biogenic emissions
• wildfire emissions
• nested chemical lateral boundary conditions
• subgrid-scale vertical transport by convective clouds
• inclusion of sea salt in heterogeneous chemistry
• faster CAM
Results and Findings Two significant findings from the AURAMS
simulations performed for the EC/EPA PM Transboundary Transport Assessment report are that changes in atmospheric PM in ENA in response to emission changes in PM gaseous precursors are expected to vary strongly by season and in some areas to vary non-proportionally
and even non-directionally
July 8-18
Feb. 7-15
PM2.5 SO4 PM2.5 NO3 PM2.5 NH4
2020P - 2020B Scenario “Deltas” for SO2 and NOx
Emission Reductions, July ‘95 & Feb. ‘98 Cases
Manitoba Smelters - AURAMS simulations in use for Policy on Emissions Controls
Manitoba Smelters - AURAMS simulations in use for Policy on Emissions Controls
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