Development of MSC Regional

PM Air Quality Model: AURAMS

Mike Moran, Wanmin Gong, Paul Makar, Ashu Dastoor, Sunling Gong, and Balbir Pabla Air Quality Modelling & Integration Division Air Quality Research Branch, Downsview

Véronique Bouchet, Sophie Cousineau, Louis-Philippe Crevier, Stéphane Gaudreault, and Sylvain Ménard

Applications en modélisation de la qualité de l'airCentre Météorologique Canadien, Dorval

Presentation for 2004 AQRB Midterm Review – Smog Session Downsview, Ontario 26 October 2004

Talk Outline

Status of Deliverables

Other Achievements & Activities

Planned Activities

Results and Findings

EVALUATION

DEVELOPMENT

APPLICATIONS

EVALUATION

DEVELOPMENT

NOW

Comment: Have Reached A New Stage

THEN

Status of FY04/05 Deliverables

# Deliverable Due Date

1 Multi-Processor Version of AURAMS

May 2004

2 Submission of Two AURAMS Manuscripts

June 2004

3 Real-Time Forecast Support for ICARTT

July 2004

Deliverable 1

1. Multi-processor version of AURAMS (May 04)

OpenMP multi-processor version was released 24 May 2004 (AURAMS version 1.0)

New version is a factor of 5 faster on the IBM cluster at Dorval than the previous version of AURAMS

New version was essential to support ICARTT experiment beginning in July 2004

MSC personnel (A. Kallaur, B. Pabla, B. He) involved in the code speed-up effort directed by P. Makar received an AQRB Instant Award in July

Deliverable 2

2. Submission of 2 AURAMS manuscripts June04

Delayed to later in FY by preparations for ICARTT field experiment and by work on 2004 Canadian Acid Rain Science Assessment

Relevant to public release of AURAMS code planned for April 2005

Deliverable 33. Real-time forecast support for ICARTT July 04

•Experimental AURAMS real-time daily 48-hour forecasts to support both ICARTT field program and real-time AQ model intercomparison started on July 1, ran throughout Cleveland field project period (July 20Aug. 18), and are continuing indefinitely

•The Air Quality Model Applications Group provided 24/7 support for the R-T AURAMS forecasts and delivered forecasts to NOAA for R-T intercomparison

•3 AURAMS scientists served (sequentially) in the field as AQ forecasters to support MSC flight operations

ICARTT (http://www.al.noaa.gov/ICARTT)

International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and

TransformationLarge AQ field experiment over eastern North America and north Atlantic Ocean

July-August 2004, eastern North America (mainly)

Over 500 scientists involved

NOAA, NASA, U.S. Dept of Energy, MSC, Caltech, Harvard, U. Maryland, U. New Hampshire, New York State U., York U., Dalhousie U.

MSC ICARTT CAMPAIGN

The Canadian campaign was designed to address some AQ forecasting shortcomings. There were two theatres of operation.

Cleveland (85%): Chemical Transformation and transport by Clouds (CTC)

• Improve the way AQ models represent aerosol and cloud processes;• More comprehensively evaluate the performance of MSC AQ models

Bangor (15%): Transport Into the Maritimes (TIMs)

• Investigate LRTAP from Washington-Boston corridor

Forecasting Product: 6-Panel Animation of AURAMS

Sfc SO2, p-SO4, p-NO3, H2O2, O3, NOx Concentration

Fields

Forecasting Product: 4-Sided Vertical Cross

Section

Animation of SO2, p-SO4, p-NO3, O3, and NOx Conc.

Fields

Vertically-integrated p-SO4

2- production in cloud

Forecast Product: 4-Panel Animation of Selected AURAMS Cloud and Aqueous-Phase Chemistry Fields

Vertically-integrated p-SO4

2- production in clear air

Cloud fraction at 1225 m

Cloud liquid water content at 1225 m

ICARTT Real-Time Model Intercomparison Model intercomparison (O3 at AIRMAP & AIRNOW stations)

• Baron/MCNC MAQSIP (45, 15km)

• MSC CHRONOS (21 km)

• MSC AURAMS (42 km)

• NOAA WRF-CHEM (27, 12 km)

• NOAA/EPA CMAQ-ETA (12 km)

• U of Iowa STEM (60, 12, 4km)

And ensemble AQ forecasts!

Example for Chebogue Point onJuly 21, 2004 during an episode in the Maritimes (aloft)

Other Achievements & Activities

Completion of final version of the section on AURAMS results for 2 case studies and 5 scenarios for the EC/EPA PM Transboundary Transport Assessment report; this study represents the first policy application of AURAMS (cf. Results and Findings)

Implementation of a plume-rise algorithm for major point sources & an improved SOA formation algorithm

Development of AURAMS modelling plans as part of the draft science plans for two proposed field experiments (Prairie 2005, SwOn/SeMi 2006);

Delivery of AURAMS-related presentations at 7 conference/workshops , 2 seminars, and 1 media briefing in first 6 months of FY

Prairie 2005Prairie 2005

• Air-quality model forecasts (AURAMS, CHRONOS) Air-quality model forecasts (AURAMS, CHRONOS) used to deploy mobile measurement platforms.used to deploy mobile measurement platforms.

• Platforms to measure PM, OPlatforms to measure PM, O33 and precursor and precursor concentrationsconcentrations and concentration and concentration fluxesfluxes. .

• Post-campaign simulations (AURAMS, CHRONOS, Post-campaign simulations (AURAMS, CHRONOS, CMAQ)CMAQ)

a)a)What are the What are the measuredmeasured advective mass fluxes of advective mass fluxes of PM, OPM, O33 and precursors across arbitrary (e.g., and precursors across arbitrary (e.g., politically defined) boundaries (focus on Alberta)? politically defined) boundaries (focus on Alberta)?

b)b)What are the What are the modelledmodelled advective mass fluxes… … advective mass fluxes… …across the same boundaries?across the same boundaries?

c)c) How well does (b) match (a)?How well does (b) match (a)?

PIs: Brian Wiens, Paul Makar - MSC

BAQSmet 2006BAQSmet 2006

(1) Are AQ and meteorological estimates of boundary layer heightconsistent?

(2) How does the Detroit urban boundary layer affect AQ in Windsor? Are current weather forecast and air quality models capable of predicting the existence of this region?

(3) Characterization of lake breezes, met and AQ:how may the measurements and modelling be used to distinguish between local and long-range transport impacts on the airshed?

(4) What is the impact of lake-breeze generated convection on local air-quality? How well do meteorological and air-quality models simulate this convection, and the associated vertical transport of pollutants?

Again, AURAMS forecasts to be used to deploy aircraft and ground-based measurement platforms.

Ontario Region project advised by AQRB measurement and modelling science:

Planned Activities (1) Preparation of 2 manuscripts (cf. Deliverable 2)

Delivery of at least one more new model version

•Continuing work on AURAMS performance eval’n:

–Pacific2001

–CMAQ-AURAMS intercomparison for two cases (joint with OME)

–ICARTT real-time model intercomparison

–ICARTT field data eval’n (Convair, ozonesondes)

–other periods

Planned Activities (2)

Continuing work on further improvements to AURAMS, including

• “on-the-fly” Aeolian dust and biogenic emissions

• wildfire emissions

• nested chemical lateral boundary conditions

• subgrid-scale vertical transport by convective clouds

• inclusion of sea salt in heterogeneous chemistry

• faster CAM

Results and Findings Two significant findings from the AURAMS

simulations performed for the EC/EPA PM Transboundary Transport Assessment report are that changes in atmospheric PM in ENA in response to emission changes in PM gaseous precursors are expected to vary strongly by season and in some areas to vary non-proportionally

and even non-directionally

July 8-18

Feb. 7-15

PM2.5 SO4 PM2.5 NO3 PM2.5 NH4

2020P - 2020B Scenario “Deltas” for SO2 and NOx

Emission Reductions, July ‘95 & Feb. ‘98 Cases

Manitoba Smelters - AURAMS simulations in use for Policy on Emissions Controls

Manitoba Smelters - AURAMS simulations in use for Policy on Emissions Controls