Gordon Alexander Keynote Address

Regional Conference on ‘Institutional Frameworks for Social Equity…’ Algiers 15th December 2014

Towards Equity and a Child-Towards Equity and a Child-Sensitive Post-2015 Agenda Sensitive Post-2015 Agenda

Photo: James Gordon

Threads

• Opportunities and Challenges linked to Post 2015 debate

• Why equity is important for children - and children for achieving equity

• Where measurement and data come in

• Changing Games

ambition and feasibility, optimism and realism

SG’s latest Report : ‘A Road to Dignity’

On the brink of a new paradigm of development

• Universal Goals• Climate change• ‘No one left behind’• A data revolution

Children just one among a large number of targets. Yet many ‘spaces’, some old, some new.

Development aligning with Human Rights

• ‘Two ships passing in the night’

• Critique of MDGs

• Accountability & Voice

• Convention on Rights of the Child @

25yrs

A shared set of global standards

for children

•

Challenges from within ‘Austerity’ and war on the welfare state

Acceptance of the ‘intolerable’

Vehicles that we expect to promote ‘equity’ are …becoming those that entrench inequalities …(schools, health systems, jobs, ….)

Inequalities that matter for children

Equality of opportunity and‘outcomes'

Equity as ‘fairness’(and behind that an idea of justice)

Two types of inequalities:

‘vertical’ ‘horizontal’**

Perceptions of children themselves

A further reason why equity matters

(one we don’t talk enough about)

High inequality leads to concentration of political influence and makes all other goals

much harder to achieve.

The world we are heading towards

Income Inequality in OECD countries 1985-2008

9

Gini Ratios

Progress for Children We value what we measure; what we measure we

value

Economic ‘Take Off’ ➔ Structural Adjustment➔

Human Development/Sen’s Capabilities ➔

Wellbeing ➔

Future SDGs… ➔

2020

2000

1990

s 19

80s

1950

s

Income (but also DHS..)

Household Surveys ( LSMS, MICS) Infant mortality (Jim Grant/ A. Sen)

Multi-dimensionality of child poverty (Bristol…)

Material deprivation and subjective wellbeing (EU SILC, PISA, HBSC… Euro- Barometer…Innocenti Report Cards).

?

A better understanding of the ‘WHY’ Social Determinants of Inequalities among Children

Marmott et al. 2013

Telling the story of what is happening in children's lives :

Evidence from 4 countries What longitudinal studies

can tell you: same children over time understanding of local

context quantitative and

qualitative methods voices of children

Transition events: e.g. school enrolment; family ill health or death; household change; migration; livelihood change

Shapin

Societal context: physical/natural environment; jobs; infrastructure; values and norms

Household: poverty; stage of development; risk exposure

Children’s development trajectories and agency: age-sensitive/critical periods; accumulated (dis)advantage

Incidence and nature of transitions shaped by social /policy change, household stage, social norms.

Impact conditioned by resilience factors

Potential Intervention Opportunities

The ‘life course’ approach

Years: -1 0 5 10 15 20 25

Monitoring at local level (UK)‘Marmott’ Indicators

• Slope indices: inequality for male and female disability-free

life expectancy • Young people not in education, employment or training

(NEET) • People in households in receipt of means-tested benefits• Slope index of inequality for people in households in receipt

of means-tested benefitsSource: Marmott et al. 2014 IHE

• Children achieving a good level of development at age 5

Changing nature of the game

Shouldn’t underestimate role of Politics & Media

Children don't vote

Holding feet to the fire Easier on child survival Less so on chronic, pervasive

problems (gender inequality, disabilities, malnutrition, violence….)

“Post 2015 process now shifts from inclusive international development discussions towards exclusive

intergovernmental political negotiations.”

Where are we now?

28

What we need to do

• Mainstream children across all the SDGs

• Make equity a key consideration in everything

• Seek consensus on child poverty and on child wellbeing across all contexts

• Select areas where opportunities for children are greatest and build alliances around these. (And make this leading edge of our own data revolution for children)

• Get Governments and Civil Society on board.

Summing Up: Now is the time

• We do have a unique opportunity; one we cannot afford to miss

• A lot of work remains to be done, especially in measurement and definitions..

• Preserving and building on the ‘game changing’ element of equity will be key. A boat that we have to build as we sail it.

«We are like sailors who must rebuild their ship on the open sea, never able

to dismantle it in dry-dock and to reconstruct it there out of the best

materials »

Finally, keep in mind Neurath’s boat

Thankyou

Photo by Al Jazeera

AGES: 1 5 8 12 15

YOU

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2,000 children

Old

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1,000 children

AGES: 8 12 15 19 22

Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 2002 2006 2009 2013 2016

Same age children at different time points

Qualitative nested sample 1 2 3 4

Linked school surveys

Youn

ger C

ohor

tYoung Lives Two Cohorts

Children in periods of crisis Principle of ‘No retrogression’

• A fiscal space approach: calculate cost and then examine resource envelope

• Meet minimum level immediately and then progress to adequate

• Does system design allow for progressive realisation?

• ‘Child impact assessment’ all major proposed legislation

•Are women, children, minorities and people with disabilities addressed? Those with little political voice.

•Are Budgets pro-poor or pro-rich? Pro-children?

•Use benchmarking, cross-national comparisons, externalities analysis. Source: M. Langford

2010

Children First in Good Times and Bad

Child wellbeing is better in more equal societies

Income inequality

UN

ICE

F in

dex

of c

hild

w

ellb

eing

21 OECD countries

Policy can narrow gapsVietnam, Maths tests results (standardised so average initial performance=500) (10 year olds)

Policy sometimes widens gaps

Enrolment in private schools (% of 12 year olds), Andhra Pradesh

Children do not vote

A political agenda that treats children as a priority and resource, each as a citizen in his or her own right

Commitment from government (the very top and locally)

Policy framework and systems that reinforce accountability (for outcomes)

Strengthen governance for children (observatories; ombudspersons for children: watchdogs in civil society)

Gross National Income per capita 1995-2010 ($ppp)

Period of Economic Growth & Expansion

Extreme Poverty coming downin all 4 countries

Behrman et al. 2013

Inequalityrising slightly

Behrman et al. 2013

Much progress: yet inequality gap same or greater

Peru % 12 year old children stunted

© Young Lives data

Significant gaps remain

Schooling as a way to reduce inequity ?

Mean Score (%)

At age 5 cognitive development levels are similar

© Young Lives data

Mean (Household) Maths Test Scores at Age 8 (%)

Quality matters

© Young Lives data