restriction of district heating systems development towards 4gdh · 2019-04-18 · 4th generation...
TRANSCRIPT
3rd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District HeatingCopenhagen, 12‐13 September 2017
Restriction ofDistrictHeatingSystemsdevelopmenttowards4GDH
Bioeconomy approach in district heating development
Dr.sc.ing.,Jelena Ziemele,M.sc.EinarsCilinskis
M.sc.ing.AndrisVanags,Dr.hab.sc.ing.,ProfessorDagnija Blumberga
1
Contents
3rd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Copenhagen, 12‐13 September 2017
1. Current Situation in District heating2. Restriction of District Heating Systems development towards 4GDH
2.1 Case study2.2 Scenarios description2.3 Technological, economic and bioeconomyindicators evaluation for different scenarios
3. Results4. Conclusions
2
Goalofresearch
3rd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Copenhagen, 12‐13 September 2017
Toanalyzepossibledevelopmentscenariosfordistrict heatingcompanytowards 4th generationdistrict heating system bycomparison of technological,economic andbioeconomyindicators.Toevaluate barriersandrestrictionthatlimitlong‐termsustainable development ofDHsystem.
3
CurrentSituationinDistrictheatingsystemin Latvia
3rd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation DistrictHeating, Copenhagen, 12‐13 September 2017
73 75 74 81 83 86
0
20
40
60
80
100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Heat energy share producedin CHPandboilerhouse
Heat share produced by boiler houses, %Heat share produced by CHP, %
3 49
1724 26
37 3843
5564
68
12 1218
2431 32
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Renewableenergyshare,%
Renewable energy share in DHsector,%
DHCHP DHboilerhouses TotalofDH
4
Casestudy ‐ Fortum Jelgava
3rd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Copenhagen, 12‐13 September 2017
Average production data in the last three years (2014 -2016)
Produced heat, GWh per year
238.6
Producedelectricity, MWhper year
104.7
Cooling losses, MWh per year
83950 (35% from produced
heat)Distributionlosses, %
16.7
5
Scenariosdescription
3rd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation DistrictHeating, Copenhagen, 12‐13 September 2017
DH system development scenarios description
Heat consumption decrease by end users (retrofitting of existing
buildings), %0% 10% 30% 50%
Base scenario (Sc1) Sc1 Sc1A Sc1B Sc1CBase scenario plus Bio oil production integration to heat source (Sc2)Additional heat consumption 39.6 GWh (31%)
Sc2 Sc2A Sc2B Sc2C
Base scenario plus adding of new consumers (Sc3)Additional heat consumption 54.7 GWh (42%)
Sc3 Sc3A Sc3B Sc3C
Base scenario plus Bio oil production integration to heat source and adding of new consumers (Sc4)Additional heat consumption 94.3 GWh (73%)
Sc4 Sc4A Sc4B Sc4C
6
Technological indicator improvement bydifferent scenarios
3rd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Copenhagen, 12‐13 September 2017
3539
4552
19 21 2427
12 14 16 18
1 1 1 20
10
20
30
40
50
60
Shar
eof
loss
esby
cond
ensi
ng, %
Scenarios
Heat losses by condensing, percentage of producedheat %
7
Evaluation ofdevelopmentscenarios bybioeconomy approach
3rd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Copenhagen, 12‐13 September 2017
⁄
AD – added value, EUR/t;Pr – profit, EUR per year;Sal – salary, EUR per year;De – depreciation, EUR per year;W – used fuel, ton per year.
32.68
74.99
121.06
58.10
020406080
100120140
Sc4 Sc3 Sc2 Sc1 Sc1A Sc1B Sc1C
Spec
ific
indi
cato
rs fo
r sc
enar
ios
Scenarios
Heat tariff, EUR/MWh Added value, EUR/t
8
Which economic indicator is most importantforsustainable developmentofDH?
3rd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Copenhagen, 12‐13 September 2017
⁄
Heat tariff T, €/MWh?
Production tariff , €/MWh
– transmission and distribution tarifs, €/MWh;
– sales tariff, €/MWh; – produced amount
of heat, MWh;, - net income from
thermal energy and electricity sale;
, - amount of soldthermal energy and electricity; , - heattariff and electricity tariff;
– net revenue, € per year
Income of DH company In, € per year?
Profit of DH company, Pr € per year or %?Pr
9
Comparison ofheattarifffordifferentscenarios
2nd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Aalborg, 27-28 September 2016
3035404550556065707580
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Heat
tarif
f, EU
R/M
Wh
CHP heat losses by condensing, %Sc1 with Sc1A, Sc1B, Sc1CHeat tariff (by NG price 277.25 EUR/1000m3), EUR/MWhHeat tariff (by NG price 393.86 EUR/1000m3), EUR/MWhPotential scenarios of development of DH system
Base A B CSc1 Sc2 Sc310
Sc4
Comparison ofheattarifffordifferentscenarios withdifferent level ofretrofitting by end users
2nd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Aalborg, 27-28 September 2016
3035404550556065707580
10 20 30 40 50 60
Heat
tarif
f, EU
R/M
Wh
CHP heat losses by condensing, %
Sc1 with Sc1A, Sc1B, Sc1C Sc2 with Sc2A, Sc2B, Sc2CSc3 with Sc3A, Sc3B, Sc3C
Base A B CSc1 Sc2 Sc3 11
Comparison cost ofsupplying heat andcost ofheat saving
2nd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Aalborg, 27-28 September 2016Base A B CSc1 Sc2 Sc3
020406080
100120140160180200
0 10 20 30 40 50
Heat
tarif
f and
cos
t of h
eat s
avin
gs,
EUR
/MW
h
Decrease of heat consumption, %
Heat tariff for Sc1 with different level of retrofitting (Sc1A, Sc1B, Sc1C)Heat tariff for Sc2 with different level of retrofitting (Sc2A, Sc2B, Sc2C)Heat tariff for Sc3 with different level of retrofitting (Sc3A, Sc3B, Sc3C)Cost of heat savings
27%
Cos
t of s
uppl
ying
hea
t,
12
Comparison ofDHcompany income fordifferentscenarios
2nd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Aalborg, 27-28 September 2016Base A B CSc1 Sc2 Sc3 Sc4 13
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
50000 70000 90000 110000 130000 150000 170000 190000 210000 230000
Inco
me.
EUR
/m2
Heat
tarif
f, EU
R/M
Wh
Heat consumption, MWh per yearSc1 with Sc1A, Sc1B, Sc1C Sc2 with Sc2A, Sc2B, Sc2C
Sc3 with Sc3A, Sc3B, Sc3C Income by Sc1 with Sc1A, Sc1B, Sc1C
Income by Sc1, Sc2, Sc3, Sc4
Secondary axis
In(Sc3)/In(Sc1)=2.08
T(Sc1)/T(Sc3)=1.24(Sc2)
In(Sc2)
Conclusions
3rd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Copenhagen, 12‐13 September 2017
1. The analyzed DH development scenarios based on biomass using showthat it needs balanced approach to technologic, economic, environmental and social responsibility issues to increase the competitiveness of DH company with benefits for all stakeholders and for moving DH towards4GDH.
2. Research shows that by using bioeconomy approach it is possible to evaluate added value for all scenarios. Scenarios with production fromnew biomass products (bio oil) are a more sustainable solution whichallows to increase added value twice from 58.1 €/t wood chips to 121.1 €/t.
14
Conclusions
3rd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Copenhagen, 12‐13 September 2017
3. Heat tariff is an important indicator, which combines efficiency of DH stages (heat source, distribution network, end users) all together. Reducing tariffs by improving DH's operation is not a sustainable solution for DH company because it reduces the company's revenue that decreases possibility to invest in next development.
4. In additional, reduction of heat tariff reduces the willingness to invest in the retrofitting of buildings and increases the time of reimbursement of the cost of these measures. The research shows that energy saving strategies are economically feasible only until 27% of decrease of heat consumption which cost of heat saving repayment is less than heat tariff. Such a small reduction of thermal energy consumption does not allow making qualitative retrofitting of buildings
15
Conclusions
3rd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Copenhagen, 12‐13 September 2017
5. Optimal solution, which allows the DH transition to 4GDH, shows the best system design and minimizing DH system’s costs and optimal payment for heat energy for consumers.
6. Research shows that DH system should clearly concentrate their focus to development scenarios, which give possibility to raise income approximately 2 times.
16
17
Additional information:
Dr.sc.ing.Jelena [email protected]
AcknowledgementsThe work has been supported by theNational Research Program “Energyefficient and low-carbon solutions for asecure, sustainable and climate variabilityreducing energy supply (LATENERGI)”.
CurrentSituationin the Latvian Districtheating (2)
18
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012Hea
t prod
uctio
n techno
logy
share, %
Heat production technology share,%
CHP Boiler house
0.64%
65.49%
27.85%
6.02%
DH system fuel share in 2014, %
Others Natural gas Biomass Biogas*Source: Central Statistical Bureau. www.csb.gov.lv
Comparison ofDHcompany profit andinvestment forretrofitting
2nd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Aalborg, 27-28 September 2016Base A B CSc1 Sc2 Sc3 Sc4
020406080100120140160180
0123456789
0 10 20 30 40 50
Inve
stm
ent f
or re
trof
ittin
g, E
UR/m
2
DH
com
pany
pro
fit, E
UR/m
2
Heat consumption decrease,%DH company profit for Sc1 with different retrofitting (Sc1A, Sc1B, Sc1C)DH company profit for Sc2 with different level of retrofitting (Sc2A, Sc2B, Sc2C)DH company profit for Sc3 with different level of retrofitting (Sc3A, Sc3B, Sc3C)DH company specific profit for Sc4 with different level of retrifitting (Sc4A, Sc4B, Sc4C)Investment for retrofitting
Secondary axis
Delta = 105 - 5 = 100 EUR/m2
19
3rd International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and 4th Generation District Heating, Copenhagen, 12‐13 September 2017
01020304050607080
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Hea
t loa
d, M
W
Hours, h
Hot water Heating+hot water Heating+hot water+distribution losses Heat load
cooling losses max load 17.4 MW
Heat load curve
20
Different fuel prices
Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts 21
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Fuel
cost
s, E
UR
/MW
h*
Period
Dīzeļdegviela
LPG
Dabas gāze (2)
Dabas gāze (5)
Koksnes granulas
Koksnes šķelda
Price (without VAT):
- diesel 472 EUR/t
- propane gas 760 EUR/t
- Natural gas (2.group) 0,3581EUR/m3
- Natural gas (5.group) 0,2961EUR/m3
- Wood pellets 135 EUR/t
- Wood chips 8,50 EUR/bulk m3
* Taking into account modern combustion efficiency coefficient
Diesel
Propane gas
Natural gas (2)
Natural gas (5)
Wood pellets
Wood chips