pathways to a hydrogen fuel infrastructure in norway€¦ · norway has unique conditions to be an...

Pathways to a Hydrogen Fuel Infrastructure in Norway

HyForum 2008Changsha, China, 03-06 August

Christoph StillerUlrich Bünger

Matthias NowakNTNU

Kari Aamodt EspegrenIFE

Steffen Møller-HolstAnn Mari Svensson

SINTEF

Partners:

Outline

Norway’s energy situation– Why hydrogen; CO2 ambitions; transportationHydrogen infrastructure build-up

–Regional Demand scenarios–Regional Supply scenarios

Conclusions

Courtesy: RCN

Norway - facts you may not know

Electricity> 99% from hydropowerHuge wind resourcesRobust and flexible grid forintegration of renewablepower

Oil and Natural GasWorld’s 3rd largest exporterof NG and 5th largest of oilAlmost no NG infrastructurePotential for CO2 storage in North Sea bed

TransportationEurope’s lowest share of publictransportHigh taxation of cars and fuelStrong shipping/marinesegment

Topology & Population17,000 km coastline12 inhabitants per km2

World‘s 2nd highest GDP per capita

Courtesy: RCN

TWh/

year

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

Production Energy use

Bioenergy

Hydro- and windpower

Natural gas

Oil

Other use

Electricity

Transportation

Norway - an energy nation…….

Trond Moengen, June 2004

Norway’s ambitions to CO2 reduction

Source: The Norwegian Commission on Low Emissions [NOU 2006:18]

-75 % CO2 emissions in transportation required until 2050

Estimated share of vehicles (car pool)

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Year

Car

poo

l HydrogenElectricHybridConventional

⇒ 100% hydrogen and electric cars among new sales by 2040⇒ Hydrogen and electricity purely from CO2-free and lean sources⇒ Also reductions in goods transport and maritime sector will be required

Outline



Conclusions

Regional Deployment of Hydrogen useAssumptions and methodology

Starting in the population centres (fleets and private cars): – 2010: Oslo– 2020: Trondheim, Bergen, Stavanger, Porsgrunn

Growth to sparsely populated areas – Assumption: 50% of population supplied by 2025, 100% from 2040– Order of supply of regions selected due to multi-criteria analysis

(population density, car density, purchasing power, neighbouring regions with hydrogen supply)

Creation of hydrogen corridors to facilitate commuting and long-distance travel

– 2010: Oslo – Stavanger (HyNor demonstration project)– 2025: Oslo – Bergen , Oslo – Trondheim, Oslo – Stavanger– 2040: Trondheim – Tromsø

Regional Deployment of Hydrogen useResult

Selection of Hydrogen Fuelling StationsAssumptions and methodology

Estimate on total number of fuelling stations:– 46 by 2020 (avg. 500 vehicles/station)– 1100 by 2050 (avg. 1600 vehicles/station)

Distribution to regions by minimizing avg. vehicle-to-station distance

Selection of local hydrogen fuelling stations by cluster analysis of conventional fuelling stations

Selection of Hydrogen Fuelling StationsResult (example)

Regional Hydrogen SupplyAssumptions and Methodology

Production options:– Central NG SMR– Central biomass gasification (only in South)– Central electrolysis– By-product hydrogen from petrochemical/chemical plants– Onsite electrolysis– Onsite SMR (only population centres in South and West)

Delivery options:– Pipeline (minimum spanning tree architecture)– Gaseous hydrogen truck (star-like routes, full trailer exchanged against

empty)

Regional Hydrogen SupplyAssumptions and Methodology

H2Invest model trades off between central and onsite production and supply schemes individually for each fuelling station location (up to 1100) and creates an integrated supply scenario 5-year time steps from 2010 to 2050Greedy, myopic optimization approach – close to real lifeCosts based on investment annuity, O&M, fuel, CO2 costsContinuity of equipment throughout lifetime, varying energy prices Road distances respected

Hydrogen Demand and Supply - 2010

1,000 cars total 0.05% of fleet

ElectrolysisBy-productBiomass-to-H2NG-SMR


1,100,000 cars total 45.1% of fleet


0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

t Hyd

roge

n /a Biomass gasification

Byproduct hydrogenNG-SMRElectrolysis

Hydrogen production mix

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

%

⇒ From 2020, Hydrogen central NG SMR (without carbon capture) and onsite electrolysis⇒ From 2035, more electrolysis (sparsely populated areas deployed; increasing NG prices)⇒ Byproduct hydrogen used, biomass gasification and SMR with CCS do not appear

economic under current assumptions.

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

t Hyd

roge

n /a

CGH2 trailerPipelineOnsite

Hydrogen distribution

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

%

⇒ Strongly centralised in the higher populated South (truck delivery being gradually shifted to pipeline delivery).

⇒ The sparsely populated and Northern areas are mostly supplied with onsite electrolysis.

Avg. hydrogen costs @ fuelling station

⇒ High specific costs before 2025 due to low capacity factors of the transport and fuelling stations, however low total annual costs.

⇒ 2025, the hydrogen costs reach a competitive level of below 5 €/kg, with production / energy costs henceforth playing an increasing role due to assumed price increases.

0.002.004.006.008.00

10.00

12.0014.0016.0018.0020.00

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

EUR

/kg

Hyd

roge

n

0100200300400500

6007008009001000

MEU

R/a

RefuellingTransportProductionTotal costs

GHG emissions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

g C

O2

equi

v / k

m d

riven

GHG emissions

Well-to-wheel: Consumption 0.7 kg H2 / 100 km

⇒ 32 g/km by 2050

⇒ The highest contributor is NG SMR without carbon capture

Sensitivity analyses

High CO2 tax: (100€/ton): Substantial shift towards onsite electrolysis over the whole analysis period (>90%). GHG level down to 12 g/km by 2050. Less NG SMR, pipelines and trailers. Marginal cost increase.Cheaper electricity (-1.8 ct€/kWh): Similar to CO2 tax, shift to onsite electrolysis. GHG level down to 11 g/km by 2050, and specific costs down to 3-4 €/kg hydrogen from 2025.Limited truck deliveries (every 2nd day): Hence, truck delivery is only an option for small fuelling stations. Gaseous hydrogen trucks play only a minor role. Shift to pipelines (25% of the base case truck delivery) and onsite electrolysis supply (74% by 2050). GHG emissions down to 25 g/km by 2050, slightly higher costs (2-8%).

Outline



Conclusions

Conclusions

Norway has unique conditions to be an early adopter of hydrogen in transportationA model was developed (H2Invest) that analyses least-cost hydrogen supply to a set of fuelling stations and is a flexible tool to study realistic regional infrastructure build-up and the impacts of various input parameters.Decentralised production technologies, especially electrolysis, will play a crucial role in Norway due to low population density. The costs of hydrogen can be at a competitive level from a vehicle penetration rate of app. 5% (anticipated 2025).Greenhouse gas emissions from hydrogen production can be influenced effectively by political measures (high CO2 taxes; renewable electricity subsidies)

Acknowledgement

The NorWays project is co-funded by the participating industry, StatoilHydro, Statkraft and Hexagon Composites, The Industrial Fund for Innovation at NTNU and by the Norwegian Research Council (NFR) (Project 173045/S30). We thank all project participants for their support in carrying out the present study.

http://www.ntnu.no/norways

[email protected]

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