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Modeling, Simulation and Data Assimilation for Indus River Basin
Management
SimIndus Group of Pakistani Researchers
Presentation by: Dr Abubakr Muhammad (LUMS)
Planning Commission , Islamabad April 8, 2011
The SimIndus Network
Members Mr. Sarwar Nazir (NCP) [Coordinator] Dr. Abubakr Muhammad (LUMS) Dr. Amer Iqbal Bhatti (MAJU) Dr. Shoab Raza (PIEAS) Dr. Yousaf Shad (QAU) Dr. Adiqa Kiani (FUUAST) Mr. Zia-ud-Din (NDC) Mr. Muhammad Akhtar (NDC) Mr. Saifullah (NDC) Ms. Mariya Absar (LUMS/IIASA) Mr. Muhammad Asif (IIU) Mr. Muslim Shah (NDC) Mr. Muhammad Zeeshan (QAU)
NCP Water Connections
PIEAS Water Connections
MAJU Connections
QAU Water Connections
LUMS Water Group
LUMS Water Group
Lab for Cyber Physical Networks & Systems at LUMS-SSE
Motivation / Concerns
10
Annual canal diversions and sea escapage Flow reduction due to climate change
Vulnerability sources
Source. UNEP South Asia report, 2008
Motivation / Strengths
Economically feasible hydro power potential.
Crop yields despite drought.
SimIndus Agenda
• Questions – What is the use of models/scientific data for users and
citizens? [People] – Do we need models to design new control Institutions ?
[Governance] – What are the critical paths in maintenance, optimization
and operation that can be solved by modeling? [SimIndus]
• Explorations
– What needs to be done? – Who does what? – What is being ignored by everyone?
SimIndus Interests (Summary)
• Focus on Modeling, simulation and data assimilation for
• Physical models
• Econometric models
• Operational models
• Regulatory methods
• End Product: Decision support systems at multiple level
• End User: Basin managers • Scenario options
• Informed decisions backed by solid science and data
Need for Data Driven Models
Current governance directions • Participatory irrigation management
• Decision making at many levels. (IRSA, PIDA, WUA, FO…)
• Need decision support systems
• Water entitlements • Being defined/debated at trans-boundary,
national, provincial, regional, farm levels. • Need scientific evidence to support legal
claims, treaty/accord negotiation.
• Accountability • Forecast and analysis for future and past
scenarios. • Conflict resolution requires scientific backup. • Correctly interpret conflicting claims (e.g. on
glacial melt)
Participation
Accountability
Entitlements
A complex system of systems
15 January 17, 2012
Models, Data Assimilation and Usage
Data Assimilation
Physical Models
Sensors / Imaging
Operational Models
Regulation
Models
Set-points
Forecasts
Glacial melt Salt mobility Aquifer dynamics Delta ecosystems Siltation River morphology Evapotranspiration
IBMR, Flood Commission WAPDA sector planning Irrigation depts Feasibility studies
Remote Sensing Discharges/diversion Water quality / Sediment Salinity
Econometric
Models
Agronomics Livestock /fishery Cropping Irrigation
Canal command Costing / Pricing Entitlements Cropping Patterns Groundwater balance
Model Repository (WB Picture)
• Types
– Planning
– Operations
• Multi-scale
– Daily
– Monthly
– Seasonal
– Long-term
Source. World Bank, 2005
Need for Accurate Modeling of Very Complex Systems
• Drainage Master Plan estimated that +34M tonnes of salt accumulated in root zone
• But measurements showed that salinity had stabilized, and was declining • Better model predicts −3M tonnes/yr!
18
Bhutta, World Bank, 2005
January 17, 2012
Water
Silt Salt
Courtesy. Asad Abidi, 2009
Need for Instrumentation / data
• You can not control what you can not measure.
• Need to combine accurate models with good data (assimilation).
19 January 17, 2012 Source. Bastiaanssen, 2003
Source. World Bank, 2005
Need to Settle Contradictory Claims
• Contradictory claims – WB, ADB, DFID, …
• No definite answers yet
• Challenges – Sparse data
– Extreme
topography
• Perfect case for
model based
data assimilation
Courtesy. Mariya Absar, COMSTECH, 2010
Need to Settle Contradictory Claims
• Contradictory claims – WB, ADB, DFID, …
• No definite answers yet
• Challenges – Sparse data
– Extreme
topography
• Perfect case for
model based
data assimilation
Courtesy. Mariya Absar, COMSTECH, 2010
Need for Preservation: e.g. Indus Delta
22
• Diverse bio-environment
• 200 species of fish
• 25,000 tonnes of shrimp/yr; 50% exported
• Reduced outflows have led to shrinking mangrove forests, declining fish stocks
• Fishing communities disappearing
• Need for flows into delta has been long recognized; written into Indus Waters Accord
• Need models to forecast and regulate
January 17, 2012
Existing Operational Models
• Indus Basin WB Study(1968)
• Indus Basin Model (IBM, 1982)
• Indus Basin Model Revised
(IBMR, 1986)
• Indus Basin Model Revised-III
(IBMR-III, 1992)
• Water resource database
(2000-)
IBMR models
• Current Limitations
– Most physical models missing
• Flood impact
• Ground water dynamics
• Drainage
• Climate change
– Many econometric models missing
• 15 crops only
• Wheat centric
Existing Usage of Physical Models
• Practically non-existent
• Isolated reports and scientific papers
• Isolated research activities at centers of excellence / universities
• Little/no Instrumentation to test models
• Existing capacity in basic science/hydrogeology – small
• No data assimilation
Water
Silt Salt
Existing Usage of Regulation Models
• Non-existent
• Critical for – System engineering. e.g. canal command automation
– Conflict management
– Improvement in distribution efficiencies
– Real-time Farmer advice
– Demand driven water delivery
– Fair pricing
• Existing capacity for handling data or models in regulation – practically zero
Existing Usage of Operational Models
• Practically non-existent
• Isolated reports and scientific papers
• Isolated research activities at centers of excellence / universities
• Little/no Instrumentation for basin management
• No data assimilation
Efforts within SimIndus
• Operational models
– Basin operation & management (QAU)
• Regulation models
– Canal command automation (LUMS)
• Physical models
– Aquifier dynamics (IAD – PINSTECH)
– Work on glacier melt (PMD, IAD-PINSTECH)
• Econometric models
– Poverty, productivity and food security (FUUAST)
Case 1: Smart Water Grid (LUMS)
Embedded controller
Gate control
Demand driven delivery to farms
Flow Measurements
Wireless connectivity
LUMS Smart Water Grid
• Model based systems engineering
• Increase of distribution efficiency
• Demand based delivery
• Improvement and enforcement of water rights
LUMS Smart Water Grid • Control of nontechnical
losses – Detection of Leak or unauthorized
takeoff
– Detection of unauthorized dumps
• System health monitoring
• Flood/breach security
Case 2: Stochastic Optimization of Indus Basin (QAU)
• Two stage stochastic programming model.
• Stochastic models of river flows and rainfall.
• Can lead to improvements in IBMR.
Case 2: Stochastic Optimization of Indus Basin (QAU)
• Two stage stochastic programming model.
• Stochastic models of river flows and rainfall.
• Can lead to improvements in IBMR.
• Scenario based planning
Case 2: Stochastic Optimization of Indus Basin (QAU)
Case 3: Water Resource Modeling
(GCISC-Water Group)
• Glaciers in Pakistan cover about 13,680 sq.km.
• Melt water contribute 60% of flows from UIB.
• Glacier melt in Himalayas projected to increase within next 2-3 decades, followed by substantial decrease.
• GCISC findings – Projected temperature rise in North Pak is higher than
that in South.
– Projected precipitation change picture is not clear.
– Pakistan water resources picture remains unclear due to uncertain behavior of HKH glaciers.
Source. Regional Conf on Climate Change Challenges for South Asia, Islamabad, 2009
Who would Benefit?
• End Users are decision makers
• Decision support system needed at all levels
• WAPDA, IRSA, SIRSA, Irrigation depts, PIDA bodies
• Critical for ensuring transparency and maximizing efficiency
• Enabler for setting up new legal structures and reform control institutions.
SimIndus Plans
There is an urgent need for
– Consolidation
– Inclusion / feedback from potential users
– Interdisciplinary cross talk
– Expanding the scope to other important models
– Expansion of the research network
– Establishing connections with experts in policy, law and economics
The Way Forward …..
• Expand the Network
• Include water experts from PCRWR, UET (CE), AUF, IWMI, NIO, SUPARCO, GCISC …..
• Develop connections with international bodies like IIASA, ICTP, KAUST
• Field visits to local institutes
• Develop a position paper on national strategy for future research efforts.
References
• Asad Abidi, “Indus Basin: Past, Present and Future.” APSENA meeting, Univ of Illinois, 2009.
• Briscoe, Qamar, et al., “Pakistan Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy-Water Economy: Running Dry”, World Bank, Washington, 2005
• Babel, Wahid, “Freshwater under threat in South Asia”, UNEP Report, 2009.
• Wim Bastiaanssen, “Remote Sensing Applications on the Indus Basin”, Indus Basin Workshop, Islamabad, 2003.
• Abubakr Muhammad, Hasan Nasir, “Towards a Smart Water Grid in the Indus River Basin.” LUMS Technical Report, 2011.
• Yousaf Shad Muhammad, “Water Resources Management by Stochastic Optimization: A Case Study of Indus Basin Irrigation System,” 2010.
• Mariya Absar, “The Impact of Climate Change on the Galciers, Water Resources and Livelihood of Pakistan,” COMSTECH, 2010.