f. ruget (1), j.-c. moreau (2), m. ferrand (2), s. poisson (2), p. gate (3), b. lacroix (3), j....

F. RUGET (1), J.-C. MOREAU (2), M. FERRAND (2), S. POISSON (2),

P. GATE (3), B. LACROIX (3), J. LORGEOU (3), E. CLOPPET (4), AND F. SOUVERAIN (4)

(1) UMR 1114 EMMAH INRA 84914 AVIGNON CEDEX 9 ([email protected]), (2) INSTITUT DE L’ELEVAGE, AUZEVILLE 31326

CASTANET -TOLOSAN ET 149 RUE DE BERCY 75011 PARIS, (3) ARVALIS INSTITUT DU VÉGÉTAL, LA MINIÈRE 78210 GUYANCOURT/

31450 BAZIÈGE/91170 BOIGNEVILLE, (4) 42 AV G CORIOLIS 31000 TOULOUSE

Effect of climate change in herbivorous livestock

systems, in the French area.

9th EMS Annual Meeting & 9th ECAM in Toulouse 28 sept. 2 oct. 2009

Content

Climatic date, and their useClimate analysis, with spatialized MFAUse of climatic indicatorsUse of a phenological modelUse of a crop model (STICS): adaptations of

the model, several results, adaptations of the crops



Climatic data : origin and use

S érie «Réf »S érie «Ré » Série

Serie A2

Série B1L

2070 2099

S rie A2L

19801960 2006

S rie

Série A2

S rie B1p

2020 2049

Série A2p

S érie «Ré »Ref series Série

S rie A2

Série B1L

2070 2099

S ries A2L

19801960 2006

Se rie

Série A2

S ries B1p

2020 2049

Série A2p

Gross data for the studies of climate features and (agro)-climatic indicators

Use of the STICS crop model for grass, alfalfa and corn

2070 209619801960 2006 2020 2046

SérieSérie ObsB1L ano

A2L ano

B1p ano

A2p ano

2070 209619801960 2006 2020 2046

SérieSeries ObsB1L ano

A2L ano

B1p ano

A2p ano

B1L ano

A2L ano

B1p ano

A2p ano

Obs + (x) anomaliesObs + (x) anomaliesObs + (x) anomalies

717 ppm462 ppm

532 ppm

360 ppm

441 ppm

Data from the ARPEGE model (Déqué, CNRM)

1. Use of climatic data

New climates, appearing at the end of the century (40 % of the French area)

Multiple factor analysis, including spatial variables

Actual climate (1970-2006) in the future classes

9th EMS Annual Meeting & 9th ECAM in Toulouse 28 sept. 2 oct. 20092. Climate analysis

How will change the climate ?

Indicators

dates of practices defined according to the zones (MFA)

criteria defined for each season first grazing date: several days without rain

(favourable) or high rain (saturated soil, un favourable)

production : too high temperatures, low or very high rainfall

hay harvest: several consecutive days without rain for drying

criteria calculation and mapping

9th EMS Annual Meeting & 9th ECAM in Toulouse 28 sept. 2 oct. 20093. Climatic indicators

Favourable and unfavourable events

Far future (2070-2099), scenario A2

Number of years (/10 years)as function of the present

conditions

Unfavourable conditions for first grazing date : high rain 5 days with more than 60 mm

more frequent

less frequent

a 9th EMS Annual Meeting & 9th ECAM in Toulouse 28 sept. 2 oct. 20093. Climatic indicators

Wheat: more elevated temperature during grain filling shrivelling worse grain filling

Wheat : increase of shrivelling

Arpège 2007- Scenario A2Trémie semé le 20 octobre

89

8785

84

80

7871

696764

63

56

5451

47 46

45

40

3735

3433

31

29

25

2115

14

1211

6

5

3

2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

perte de PMG de la pèriode de référence

perte

s de P

MG si

mulée

s 2071 à 2096

2021 à 2046

Bissectrice

Arpège 2007- Scenario A2Trémie semé le 20 octobre

89

8785

84

80

7871

696764

63

56

5451

47 46

45

40

3735

3433

31

29

25

2115

14

1211

6

5

3

2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

perte de PMG de la pèriode de référence

perte

s de P

MG si

mulée

s 2071 à 2096

2021 à 2046

Bissectrice

Loss of yield

in the next future (red)in the far future (green)

2071-20962021-2046bissectrice line

% of decrease of the 1000 kernel weight (KW) of the reference period

% o

f d

ecr

ea

se o

f K

Wt

as

fun

ctio

n o

f th

e r

efe

ren

ce p

erio

d

9th EMS Annual Meeting & 9th ECAM in Toulouse 28 sept. 2 oct. 20094. Phenological models

How was the model STICS adapted

and used?Effect of temperature– introduction or reestimation of high

thresholds (developement, leaf growth, grain filling)

• Effect of CO2: – crop production : CO2 fixation– crop transpiration : decrease of stomatal

conductance– not any change on morphogenesis

• Soil types: high or low water reserves

• Agricultural practices: – Grassland and alfalfa harvests starting at

a heat sum (adapted to changes),early and frequent use (grazing) or late cuts (hay)

– for corn, present or adapted (earlier sowings, later cultivars) practices

C4

C3

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

350 450 550 650 750 850

CO2 (ppm)

C4

C3

FCO2

1.5

1.3

1.0

C4

C3

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

350 450 550 650 750 850

CO2 (ppm)

C4

C3

FCO2

1.5

1.3

1.0

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

CO2 (ppm)

FC

O2S

1

1.5

2

2.5

FCO2S

C4

C3

350 450 550 650 750

CO2 (ppm)

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.01

1.5

2

2.5

3

CO2 (ppm)

FC

O2S

1

1.5

2

2.5

FCO2S

C4

C3

350 450 550 650 750

CO2 (ppm)

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

9th EMS Annual Meeting & 9th ECAM in Toulouse 28 sept. 2 oct. 20095. Crop models

Grassland: first cut dates, number of uses (grazing)

Number of uses (grazing each 500°C.day)

(soil with low available water)

Number of days of advance for first grazing, at 500 °C.day after the beginning of growth


Grassland: annual production

Low available water


High available water

Grazing with livestock each 500 °C day

Variability of production as function of zone, period and soil available water

Alfalfa production

High soil available water Annual yield

increased in all the conditions: no problem of water (deep roots) no problem of nitrogen (symbiotic fixation)


During the last 30 yearsDuring the last 30 years In the futureIn the future

decrease of length of the life cycle in the next past

increase in yield, especially with CO2 effect on transpiration

Maize

y = -1.08x + 2418.61R

2= 0.33

y = -0.80x + 1837.19R

2= 0.40

y = -0.39x + 980.24R

2= 0.31

1/78/7

15/722/729/7

5/812/819/826/8

2/99/9

16/923/930/97/10

14/1021/1028/10

4/1111/11

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

date de floraisondate stade ensilagedate stade H32

y = -1.08x + 2418.61R

2= 0.33

y = -0.80x + 1837.19R

2= 0.40

y = -0.80x + 1837.19R

2= 0.40

y = -0.39x + 980.24R

2= 0.31

1/78/7

15/722/729/7

5/812/819/826/8

2/99/9

16/923/930/97/10

14/1021/1028/10

4/1111/11

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

date de floraisondate stade ensilagedate stade H32

Orléans - effet CO2 sur le rendement du maïs grainSimulation en irrigué et en sec sur 2 sols de RU 105 mm et 208 mm

y = 1.06x + 5.12

R2 = 0.98

y = 1.09x + 6.43

R2 = 0.98

y = 1.12x + 14.76

R2 = 0.96

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170

RDT grain sans effet CO2

RDT g

rain

avec

effet

CO2

OBS IT actuel

A2P IT adapté

B1L IT adapté

A2L IT adapté

dont irrigué

dont sec

q/ha

q/ha


grain yield, without CO2 effect

gra

in y

ield

, w

ith

CO

2

eff

ect

presentnear future (B1)far future (B1)far future (A2)

Conclusion

MethodsDifferent uses of present (actual) and estimated (present

and future) dataDifferent types of models : climatic indicators, agro-climatic

and phenological models, crop models

Main results : for grass production, in the next future, increase, in the far

future increase depending on water (soil abilities, transpiration effect of CO2) and nitrogen (legumes) availability, sometimes more risks for harvests

for grain crops, more risks of grain shrivelling, the yield increase depends on the CO2 effect (uncertainty on photosynthesis and mainly on transpiration and on phenology and morphogenesis processes)

9th EMS Annual Meeting & 9th ECAM in Toulouse 28 sept. 2 oct. 20096. Conclusion

f. ruget (1), j.-c. moreau (2), m. ferrand (2), s. poisson (2), p. gate (3), b. lacroix (3), j....

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