co2 emissions mitigation potential in vietnam’s power...
TRANSCRIPT
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CO2 emissions mitigation potential in Vietnam’s power sector
Minh Ha-Duong
Nguyen Thanh Nhan
Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement
CIRED/CNRS
« Sustainable Development: Demographic, Energy and Inter-generational Aspects »ANR Meeting, Strasbourg, November 28-29th, 2008
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Motivation
Vietnam is most affected by climate change:• Sea-level rise, 0.3m - 1m over next 100 years, could lead to a capital loss of 17 billion USD every year (WB, 2008).• Flood damage, drought, typhoons will intensify by 2070. About 80-90% of populations directly affected by typhoons (UNDP, 2007).
Local health and environmental effects:• Air pollutants brought about 22% of chronic pneumonia cases and 1/3 of respiratory inflammation in Vietnam during 2001-2003 (USAID, 2007).
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Outline and key results
1. Vietnam power sector up to 2030.2. Integrated resource planning (IRP) model.3. Results:
• Fossil fuels are expected to dominate: CO2 ++
• Nuclear , wind, and demand-side management
each have >10% reduction potential at 10$/tCO2
4Next map: power plants being installed in VN by 2010
Source: Institute of Energy of Vietnam, 2006
1. Present situation and trends
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SREPOK 3 (10)
CAMPHA (09-10)
NGCC NTRACH(08-10)
OMON I (09-10)
QNINH (09-10)
D.NAI 1&2 (09)
CUA DAT (09)
P. KRONG (08)
D. RINH (07)
Q. TRI (07)
A VUONG (08)
B.KUOP (08)
T.KONTUM (10)
S.TRANH 2 (10)
D.NAI 4 (10)
SE SAN (07-10)
B.TAUSRA (09)
BAN LA (09)
MAO KHE(09-10)
UBI MR (07)
TBK BA RIA
NADUONG
CAONGAN (07)
NBINH II (09)
NGHI SON1(10)
HPHONG (08-10)
S.DONG (08)
UBI
NBINH
P. LAI 1&2
DUNG QUOC(09)
NONG SON (09)
HOA BINH
T.QUANG (07-08)
THAC BA
SON LA 1 (10)
HAM THUAN DA MI
VINH SON SONG HINH
S. BA HA (08)
AKHEKNAK (10)YA LY
TRI AN
DA NHIM SONG PHA
THAC MO
NGCC PHU MY
THU DUC
NGCC CA MAU (07-08)
D.NINH (07)
Existing Coal fired
Legend:
CandidateCoal fired
ExistingHydro plant
CandidateHydro plant
ExistingOil/gas fired
CandidateOil/gas fired
SONG CON 2 (09)
NA LE BAC HA (10)
DAK RTIL (10)
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7.4%yr-1 GDP Growth, 2000-2005
Source: General Statistics Department of Vietnam, 2006
8.57.77.247.046.96.8Total
8.27.56.66.56.15.3Service
1110.310.39.410.410.1Industry & Construction
3.83.43.24.13.04.6Agriculture, Forest & Fishing
200520042003200220012000Sector
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Power generation grows faster
Source: Institute of Energy of Vietnam, 2006
22.4% 15.2% 52.05 TWh 11340 MW
Thermal generation (2000-2005)
Total generation (2000-2005)
Average annual growth rateGenerationin 2005
Installed capacityin 2005
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Primary sources, 2000-2005Source: Institute of Energy of Vietnam, 2006
16%
37%
39%
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Electricity demand forecast to 2030Source: Institute of Energy of Vietnam, 2006
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
450.00
500.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
(TW
h)
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
(GW
)
Annual electricity energy demand
Peak load demand
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Policy Options
* Improve end use energy efficiency
* Develop renewable energy sources
* Develop nuclear power (2020→)
* Import electricity (Laos, Cambodia, China, 2010→)
* Import coal (Australia, Indonesia, 2015→)
* Import natural gas (ASEAN pipeline, 2016→)
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2. The IRP model
Name: Integrated Resource Planning
Structure: Bottom-up technical cost minimization,MILP solved by CPLEX
Institution: Energy Program, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand
Output: Electricity generation capacity expansion plan, i.e.optimal selection of fuels and technologies
Economic potentials of CO2 emissions reduction
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Internalizing carbon value
Minimize
where: TC = present value of total generation expansion planning cost
SC = present value of total system costs = {Capital + O&M + Fuels + DSM + Import}
CV = carbon value (assumed constant in time)
EtREF = baseline CO2 emission in year t (optimum with CV=0)
Et = CO2 emitted in year t in the case
r = discount rate, T = planning horizon.
+−+= ∑
=
T
t
tREFtt rEECVSCTC
1
)1/()(*
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Model: constraints
• Technical:
• Peak demand (2 seasons, 24 demand block/day)
• Plant availability, reliability
• Maximum and minimum operation capacity
• Generating unit availability
• Resources:
• Hydro-energy
• Fossil fuels and resources
• Import availability
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Model parameters •Plant types: 15 alternative generation technologies,
includes 7 renewables
•12 fuel prices, growing 1-4% per year
•5 DSM options in residential & service sectors:+ replace incandescent (IL) by compact fluorescent (CFL)
+ replace fluorescent lamps (FL) by efficient FL
•Nuclear: <10 GW (over 2020-2030)
•Renewable potentials:− Small and mini hydro: 4 GW
− Geothermal: 0.4 GW; Biomass: 1.54 GW; Solar: 1 GW− Wind: 22 GW (limited to 20% of total system capacity)
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Scenarios
•Baseline: ≈ official plan Few renewables, imports of coal, gas & electricity.
•DSM only: Replace lamps in households and services.
•DSM + Nuclear: 10 GW
•DSM + Renewables: 22 GW wind capacity +others
Nuclear or wind assumed to replace 7.5GW imported gas.Carbon value range from 1 to 30$/tCO2.
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3. Results: A fossil baseline
Power sector will rely primarily on fossil fuels:- Coal is expected to dominate the energy mix (41.3%)- Gas (32%), Oil (0.3%)- Import (3.7%)- Hydro (16.3%) and renewables (only 4%)
Large quantities of CO2 will be emitted:- 3.6 Gt CO2 cumulative 2010-2030- 2.4 Mt SO2 and 5.5 Mt NOX
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Demand side management (DSM)Potential free lunch
More efficient lamps ⇒ significant emissions reductions:
- CO2 by 14% (over 3.6 Gt)
- SO2, and NOX by 5.6% and 5.5%.
⇒ due to lower coal-fired capacity: 77 < 82 GW by 2030
The abatement cost is negative
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CO2 values that support renewables1. Wood residue and plantation: 1$US/tCO2 2$US/tCO2 Potentially offer CDM-funded project opportunities.
2. Wind:2$US/tCO2 → 5 US cent/kWh sites (small potential)3$US/tCO2 → 5.5 US cent/kWh sites4$US/tCO2 → 6 US cent/kWh sites5$US/tCO2 → 6.5 US cent/kWh sites Wind generation in Vietnam has a large potential
3. Solar: not cost-effective in the modelNeed strong climate policy, technological innovation, or local conditions.
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Nuclear: also a significant potential of CO2 emission mitigation
31.731.622.67.23.8-CO2 reduced (%)
1147.21143.0817.3260.8138.8-CO2 reduced (Mton)
2474.22478.32804.03360.63482.5-Total cumulative CO2 (Mton)
TRP-Renewable
34.434.225.418.212.4-CO2 reduced (%)
1245.51237.9918.2657.6447.4-CO2 reduced (Mton)
2375.82383.42703.22963.83173.9-Total cumulative CO2 (Mton)TRP-
Nuclear
28.628.219.011.411.0-CO2 reduced (%)
1035.41022.3689.7411.5400.0-CO2 reduced (Mton)
2586.02599.12931.73209.83221.33621.3Total cumulative CO2 (Mton)
TRP-Baseline
20105210
Carbon value (US$/tonCO2)EmissionsCases
200 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000 Vietnam CO2 emissions from electricity generation industry, 2010-2030
IRP simulation model, CIRED
Carbon value, US$/tCO2
Mt C
O2
BAU
Nuclear
Renewables
DSM
Nuclear + DSM
Renewables + DSM
BAU
Nuclear
Renewables
DSM
Nuclear + DSM
Renewables + DSM
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Climate policy scenarios
Wind accounts for 23%-91% CO2 mitigation in renewables scenarios. Installing 33 GW of wind capacity with a $10 carbon value lead to 36% reduction.
Combine energy efficiency, renewables and $10 carbon value for - 45% below baseline, without nuclear.
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4. Summary and conclusions
Baseline: 3.6 Gt CO2 emitted between 2010 and 2030.
DSM (efficient lightning) - 0.5 Gt CO2 14%+ 5 $/tCO2 - 0.9 Gt CO2 30%+ Nuclear or Wind - 1.1 Gt CO2 35%
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Towards cleaner optimal generation mix
1 5 10 20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
TRP- Optimal renewable development scenario
Coal Gas Oil Large HydroWind power Other renewables Elec.Import Pump storage
Carbon value ($US/tCO2)
Tot
al e
lect
rici
ty g
ener
atio
n (T
Wh)
1 5 10 200
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
IRP- Optimal renewable development scenario
Coal Gas Oil Large HydroWind power Other renewables Elec.Import Pump storage
Carbon value ($US/tCO2)
To
tal e
lect
rici
ty g
en
era
tio
n (
TW
h)
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Optimal plans switch to additional clean generation capacity (GW)
2.412.422.372.760.610.2421.55.651.2220
2.412.422.372.760.610.2421.55.651.2210
2.412.422.292.760.610.2418.35.651.025
2.272.342.292.760.610.24000.051
TRP-Renewable
development
2.412.422.3700000020
2.412.422.3700000010
2.412.422.290000005
2.272.292.290000001
TRP-Nuclear development
32200000020
32200000010
2220000005
2220000001
TRP-Baseline
203020202015203020202015203020202015
HydroOther
renewablesWindCarbon
value
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Wind power potential & modeling wind turbines
227011732051.6898
24775860823.6597
25933490413.466.5
2830101103.5726
304337271.2255.5
32809630.2945
Average hours of full power (h/yr)
Energy production (TWh/yr)
Potential(GW)
Production cost(US cent/kWh)
8.10.280.23Wind turbine 4
15.90.280.23Wind turbine 3
5.20.280.3Wind turbine 2
0.90.320.3Wind turbine 1
Upper bound by 2030 (GW)Capacity factorPeakTechnology
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Determination of upper bound of feasible wind capacity development
( )
)1(*)1(***)1(*
)1(**1*XE
11 1
1 11
1
1
1
rmQLIIEPrm
LSXCYLS
pst
t
t
t
tirpirp
jvjvkpstkv
L
lltsplpst
I
i
R
rirpstirpsZZ
J
j
t
vjpst
K
k
t
Vv
+≥−+
+
∑ ∑+
−+−
∑∑ ∑
∑ ∑∑ ∑
== =
−
= == −=
=
−
=
Reliability constraint:
Σsystem capacity installed (about 100GW)≥ peak demand + reserve capacity
System reserve capacity: 30%-20% of peak demand = 17-25GW
If 20% penetration + 10% additional reserve (22 GW) ⇒ wind peak=5.5 GW
If 30% penetration + 10% additional reserve (33 GW) ⇒ wind peak= 7.4 GW
In most risky case (no wind), maximum loss of wind peak capacity: 7.4 GW
The minimum remaining reserve capacity : 17-7.4=9.6 GW > 7.4 GW
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Characteristics of efficient electricity end use technologies
120002.2636FEF80001.540DSM5
100008.1027CFL8000.6100
120007.6518CFL8000.5575
120006.7513CFL12000.5560
100006.759CFL15000.540 DSM1
DSM2
DSM3
DSM4
Residential & Commercial
Life(hrs)
Cost (US$)
Ratings (Watt)
Type of appliance
LifeCost (US$)
Ratings (Watt)
Sector
Efficiency energy using equipmentExisting energy using equipment to be replaced
Note: CLF : Compact Fluorescent LampEFL : Efficient Fluorescent Lamp