Climats récent et futur

du NunavikPatrick Grenier

pour le groupe

Scénarios et services climatiques

Ouranos, Montréal, Québec

Kuujjuaq, Québec

19 avril 2018

Content

Context

- The Ouranos consortium- Some climatic particularities of the North- A collaborative work for the benefit of Nunavik

Technical details

- Stations: few but useful- Many indicators, two reference products- Simulation ensemble

A selection of representative results

- Nunavik-scale cartography- Site-specific time series- Update of the bioclimates

Concluding remarks

2 / 13

Content

Context

- The Ouranos consortium- Some climatic particularities of the North- A collaborative work for the benefit of Nunavik

Technical details

- Stations: few but useful- Many indicators, two reference products- Simulation ensemble

A selection of representative results

- Nunavik-scale cartography- Site-specific time series- Update of the bioclimates

Concluding remarks

The Ouranos consortium

3 / 13

Structure: several complementarygroups, with VIA covering 10 programmes

Foundation: 2001

Headquarters: Montreal

Staff: ~ 50 employeesNetwork: ~ 450 researchers

Mission: acquire and develop knowledge on climate change issues to help policy-makers identify, evaluate, promote and implement adaptation strategies

Climate scenarios and services

Climate simulations and analysis

Agriculture, commercial fisheries and aquaculture

Ecosystems and biodiversity

Energy

Built environment

Maritime environment

Northern environment

Water management

Forest resources

Health

Tourism

Vuln

era

bilitie

s, im

pacts

and a

dapta

tion (V

IA)

International

Scientific integration and training

Economy

Some climatic particularities of the North

4 / 13

• Arctic amplification

(i.e. larger warming and moistening than at lower latitudes)

• Scarcity of observations(except some satellite measurements)

• Relative sea-level projected to fall at many locations

(e.g. fall of ~ 20 to 60 cm near Kuujjuaq by 2100 under high emissions)

• Particular day/night durations

• Omnipresence of the cryosphere(i.e. sea ice, permafrost, icebergs, etc.)

A collaborative work for the benefit of Nunavik

5 / 13

Tome I: Methods, some results (climate, hydrology, bioclimates), impacts on flora and fauna.

Tome II: Detailed climatic cartography and time series.

Funded by:

Authors and collaborators:

Steering committee:

Content

Context

- The Ouranos consortium- Some climatic particularities of the North- A collaborative work for the benefit of Nunavik

Technical details

- Stations: few but useful- Many indicators, two reference products- Simulation ensemble

A selection of representative results

- Nunavik-scale cartography- Site-specific time series- Update of the bioclimates

Concluding remarks

Stations: few but useful

6 / 13

Stations with enough data for:

a) temperature (13)b) total precipitation (18)c) snow cover (16)d) frozen precipitation (12)

Covering the territory necessitatesrelying on gridded products, likereanalysis (physics-based system incorporating various observations).

Stations are useful to select a reference among the differentavailable gridded products(evaluation).

a) b)

c) d)

Many indicators, two reference products

7 / 13

Reference products

for T and Ptot

GMFD (Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset for Land Surface Modeling)

for Pfroz and snow cover

median of the RCMs(regional climatemodels) used for future changes

Climateindicators (37+)

Temperature (T)21+ indicators

annual mean Tmonthly mean Tthawing season onsetthawing season endthawing season durationthawing degree-daysfreezing degree-daysnb of freeze-thaw cyclesgrowth season onsetgrowth season endgrowth season durationgrowing degree-daysnb of warm daysnb of warm nights

More…

Frozen precipitation(Pfroz)

4+ indicators

annual Pfroz

monthly Pfroz

annual ratio Pfroz / Ptot

monthly ratio Pfroz / Ptot

Snow cover4 indicators

snow cover onsetsnow cover endsnow cover durationannual maximum snow

depth

List of indicators establishedby project collaborators and potential users.

Total precipitation (Ptot)8+ indicators

annual Ptot

monthly Ptot

maximum daily Ptot

maximum 5-day Ptot

95th percentile 99th percentilenb of days with intense Ptot

nb of days with extreme Ptot

+

Simulation ensemble

8 / 13

Regional model Global pilot RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Resolution*

CCCma-CanRCM4 CCCma-CanESM2m1 √ √ 0.22o

DMI-HIRHAM5 ICHEC-EC-EARTH √ √ 0.44o

Ouranos-CRCM5CCCma-CanESM2m2 √ 0.22o

CCCma-CanESM2m3 √ 0.22o

CCCma-CanESM2m4 √ 0.22o

SMHI-RCA4 CCCma-CanESM2m1 √ √ 0.44o

ICHEC-EC-EARTH √ √ 0.44o

UQAM-CRCM5 MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR/MR √ √ 0.44o

CCCma-CanESM2m1 √ √ 0.44o

An ensemble of 15 regional simulations is used, covering "optimistic" (RCP4.5) and "pessimistic" (RCP8.5) emission scenarios.

grids over North America*simulations are regridded on the GMFD product at 0.25o (~ 30 km)

Content

Context

- The Ouranos consortium- Some climatic particularities of the North- A collaborative work for the benefit of Nunavik

Technical details

- Stations: few but useful- Many indicators, two reference products- Simulation ensemble

A selection of representative results

- Nunavik-scale cartography- Site-specific time series- Update of the bioclimates

Concluding remarks

Nunavik-scale cartography

9 / 13

What does this figure mean for Kuujjuaq ?

25-yr average T in April

During reference period:around -9 oC

In 2040-2064 under RCP4.5:likely -7 oC

[-9 oC to -4 oC]

In 2040-2064 under RCP8.5:likely -5 oC

[-9 oC to -4 oC]

Site-specific time series

10 / 13

Selection of 22 sites of interest:- villages, mines, outfitters, road, bay

Evolution figures for 4 indicators:- annual mean T- growth season duration- annual Ptot

- snow cover duration

Not at the local scale, but at ~ 30 km

Update of the bioclimates

11 / 13

↗ T and ↗ Ptot

Possible that:

- « polar » class will disappear

- « mild sub-polar » class will emerge

Highly probable that:

- « long growing season » class will emerge

- « semi-arid » class will disappear

(previous version was for 1966-1996)

Concluding remarks

12 / 13

• A long list of indicators as user-oriented as possible.

• Detailed information in ~ 158 cartography figures, ~ 45 time series figures, and

other types of figures and tables (e.g. hydrological indicators, bioclimates).

• Work limited by the availability of in situ measurements and the number of regional

simulations, but best possible reference climates and plausible ranges of change.

• Users are encouraged to communicate to Ouranos the type of climate-related

information that is useful for them.

Mailhot A. et Chaumont D. (2017) Élaboration du portrait bioclimatique futur du Nunavik – Tome I. Rapport présenté au Ministère de la forêt, de la faune et des parcs. Ouranos. 216 pages.

Chaumont D. et Mailhot A. (2017) Élaboration du portrait bioclimatique futur du Nunavik – Tome II. Rapport présenté au Ministère de la forêt, de la faune et des parcs. Ouranos. 215 pages.

@ouranos_cc

Ouranos

www.ouranos.ca

PATRICK GRENIER

grenier.patrick@ouranos.ca

chaumont.diane@ouranos.ca

(Head of the Climate scenarios and services group)

nakurmiik

Bio du présentateur et court résumé

Courte biographie du présentateur [4 lignes en français et en anglais]

Patrick Grenier a obtenu un doctorat en sciences de l'environnement de l'Université du Québec à Montréal en 2010, avec une thèse portant surles interactions entre la pollution et les nuages dans l'Arctique. Depuis 2011, il travaille dans le groupe Scénarios et services climatiquesd'Ouranos, et le climat arctique demeure l'un des ses principaux sujets d'intérêt.

Patrick Grenier obtained a Ph.D in environmental sciences from Université du Québec à Montréal in 2010, with a thesis on cloud-pollutioninteractions in the Arctic atmosphere. Since 2011, he works in the Climate scenarios and services group at Ouranos, and the Arctic climateremains one of his main interests.

Titre [français et anglais]Climats récent et futur du NunavikRecent and future Nunavik climates

Court résumé de la présentation [4 lignes en français et en anglais]

La présentation portera sur des travaux récents d'Ouranos visant d'une part à caractériser le climat récent du Nunavik et d'autre part àdévelopper un ensemble de scénarios futurs plausibles pour cette région. L'accent sera entre autres mis sur les façons de pallier la rareté desobservations dans le Nord, ainsi que sur la cartographie des changements futurs dans les indicateurs de température, de pluie et de neige.

This presentation will concern recent work at Ouranos for characterizing recent-past Nunavik climate and developing an ensemble of plausiblefuture climate scenarios for this region. The emphasis will notably be on the alternative datasets used to compensate the paucity ofobservations in the North, as well as on maps of future changes in temperature, rain and snow indicators.