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The ext Generation of esou ce Plan 1ng
ergy
ET Kl G SYSTEM EE S A D I A FUTU DOMI ATED BY WAS S
EW TEC D ENGAG D CO S M S
a ional Conference of S a e Leg· s a tu res 2019 egisla iv Summ·
Kathleen Spees
August 4 19
eG UP
I \ \
I I \ I I \ I \ ___ \
\ ', ~ ! : ' \ .. ' . '
I
'.-_ ~ I n· ' !:i.a-!E@:~ -- -·- --
w ec nolo ies & ga e Cus o ers A e Ra idly Ove ak· g Tradi ional S p ly
400
3 0
.300
- ,0 3: C, -~ 200 u ~ Q. nl u 150
1 0
so
Primarily from Tr ditional upply
uclea Coal
40
3
300
i 2SO (!) -
1
0
ew Bui ds Focus do w
Technologies
2010-202.2 Cumula • e Additions
B y Sorg
uclea Coal
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Old" I Mod I Do s
The Traditio al IRP What's M·ssi · g?
• New re "ability & f1exib.li y needs
• Po icy goals
• New tech olog1 s
• Corporate sus ai ability goals
• C sto er preferences
• Distributed resou ces pt ke
• E ec ri · cat· on vs. grid defec ion
• E bling olicies & · f as ructur
no· er words .•.• Tradi ·onal :RP approac es are ill-equippe ·o address a mos every maJor dr ver ,hat 1s .reshap ng , · e gr di
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How Do o '' 1 la '' · or e New Grd?
e C r C
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At Bratt e We ave Had to Co pletely Rebui d 0 Modeli g Tools o Cap ure These su· e 0
F nda entally Differe t Ques io s
INPUTS: ASSUMPTIONS & SCENARIOS
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS
OEEP odel !"U o
TECHNICAL& ECONO IC POE L
R£UABIUTY & FLEXIBIUTY EEOS
""'1',11t.~~ME
lRANSMISSJO PLA NI G
RESOURCE MIX D OISPA CH
POLICY L V RS
ECONOM C IMPACTS ANALYSIS
RESULTS I
OPTIMA E ECTRTCITY R SOURCE MIX & 0 SPATCH
RATEPAYER& SOCIETAL COSTS
EMISSIONS& VIRONMENT
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The ex Generat·on o o er I Ps May ee to, ...
Support Large Scale Electrification
I • 1 any eg10 s
otent al o e .:;;;;.......:.......::..;;:..:;..;:;..~
ectr1f1cation I as o al emand
e y 2050
Understa,ndf1ng pace, :ocat ons, and result·ng infrastructure :needs req,uires deeper u -dersta, 1 d1·ng of customers, and more active engagement fe.g. if vehicle oads are to be contro able)
-! - 7,500 0 •
E
0 u > .... ·-u ---tj 4 00 QJ ~., _ ..
()1,r
UJ
"" :> 3000
2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048
Autonomous
Vehic es Ri e Sha(ng?
Transportat on
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Elec ri ication· Curre tly he P i ary Feasible a h to 80% Decarboniza io or S ates and
c ·ties Aimi g o Hit 80x50 Goals
Au o omou drlv ng
~ ..... V Ch n In tOI
technotogy of cars as an cost tus symb progt
El ectr'ifi cation
With out Electrification:
Cl m t G rn nt c.ha.nge poltc es
With Electrification:
ew Entrants
36% Carbon Reduction Potential 72% Carbon Reduction Potential
MMT 0~
---~- 2015
000
0 0
How Ca U ility a at El c r ,cation Driven D
la ning A cou and?
for
Especial y n r,egio · s with S0xS0 g,oals, states and ut :lit es may need to expand planning to meet e.ne gy needs across all energy-intens~ve economic sectors (considering load:, em·:ssions, cost, and job impacts)
s PM del N r
M I i-Sec or lect i icatio and Dec boniz d nergy cono y Plan ing (DEEP)
R Id al
Cl a- E ctrf« ty ---, ornmercf J S.Olar I ust, I End-Use
B ornass
al IAdU al
Sus Natura n G•~
icle ross fuels Transporta • n
lo$ !,
The ex Generat·on o o er I Ps May ee to, ...
Redefine Reliability Needs
brattle· com 10
Tra i io o a C an Grid Ar W Headed or lacko s W e the u oes Down?
Myths Intuition may give us a false sense that the grid won't stay reliable un ess we ...
• Save baseload plan s from retiremen (or coal, or nuclear, or gas)
• Save a specific "favored" p,lan ,
• Stop buUding renewables
• B•uHd a gas pipeline
• Impose on-site fuel requ,remen s
Realities It's not a 11 hype. It wi I be a big chaUenge maintain reliability whHe going clean ...
• 'Many customers & policymakers want to go clean (reliabUi y concerns won't stop them)
• llntermi tent renewables do no provide the same bundle of relTabili y services as traditiona:I thermal plants
• Grid services we used to get "for free" wifli need to be defined and paid for
• Grid opera ors must learn o rely on non, raditiona:1 resources o provide these grid services
• Cus omers may prefer to save money by allowing some outages .r~ttle om 1
o Cari y: W y Aga1 ?
oW eed aseload a ts
... ..,We do 't. We ca , d;rop "baseload'1 fro,m p ianning voca1b · :ary.
ad1t1onal P ng Conce : Baseload lants con ribu d o a cost- ff ct v resourc mix and rovid d
ma y grid serv·ces "for free" as a byprod c of prod cing e ergy.
0 6 g 18 0 2
our of Day
yMix Concept: E uat on is flip ed. · nergy will e
"free" ost oft e time Flexi ility an ot er g(d services h veto be define and paid for.
0 2 0 1
HourofO
1 8 0 2
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