diapositive 1 - faculty directory | yale school of...

Casablanca Stock Market

An Overview

-6,60%

12,20%

-2,20%

6,80%

0,70% 1,00%

6,30%

3,20%

5,50%

-8,00%

-6,00%

-4,00%

-2,00%

0,00%

2,00%

4,00%

6,00%

8,00%

10,00%

12,00%

14,00%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

GDP changes (1980 market prices)

Budget deficit

-5,10%

-2,00%

-3,20%

-2,30%

0,90%

-5,90%

-2,60%

-4,30%

-3,50%

-6,00%

-5,00%

-4,00%

-3,00%

-2,00%

-1,00%

0,00%

1,00%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Inflation

6,10%

3%

1%

2,70%

0,70%

1,90%

0,60%

2,80%

1,20%

0,00%

1,00%

2,00%

3,00%

4,00%

5,00%

6,00%

7,00%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Historical Background

• CSE founded in 1929• Morocco resort to the World Bank &

IMF• CSE reform in 1993• Privatization program launched in 1993

Moroccan All Share Index (MASI)PER / GDP Growth Rate

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

22 16 13 12 12 16

13,4%-0,30%

8,10% 0,5% 2,5%8,2% 3,8% 5,2%

20

Volume (Billion MAD)Liquidity Ratio

020406080100

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

0,5 0,83 2,6 4,68 8,07 8,38 18,04 10,1 10,48 7,4 18%

Capitalization (Billion MAD)Capi/ GDP

0

50

100

150

200

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

12% 17% 18% 23% 37% 42% 40% 32% 28% 22% 27%

Asset under M anagem ent (Billion MAD)Equity s take

0

20

40

60

80

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

26% 15% 13% 9% 4% 5,5%

FDI (Billion MAD)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Private investment Privatization

•1999: GSM License (11 bn MAD)

•2001: Vivendi/Maroc Telecom (22 bn MAD)

•2003: ALTADIS (15 bn MAD)

Foreign Direct Investment

• Weaknesses of The CSE

•Marginalisation of minority shareholders

•Free float estimated at only 15%

•Overdominance of commercial banks

•Quasi-absence of Trading (leverage, short sales)

61.54%

Control in total capitalization

Ergis & Siger62%

Others38%

• Morocco launched during 2003 an important euro-bond issue worth € 400 millions over a five year period

• The bond issue spread amounted to 215 bp

• The bond issue, contracted without any foreign guarantee and with a favorable risk premium, reflects the confidence of foreign investors on Morocco

• The proceeds of the bond issue financed servicing Morocco’s expensive debt

• S&P improved Morocco status from Neutral to Positive

Macro-economic environment Overview

In the last years, GDP growth was over 3% through the dependency reduction from agriculture.

Inflation is maintained at a low level thanks to economy liberalization “pricing and Free trade”.

Budget deficit was restrained thanks to privatization revenues.

GDP changes (1980 market prices) Inflation

-6,60%

12,20%

-2,20%

6,80%

0,70% 1,00%

6,30%

3,20%

5,50%

-8,00%

-6,00%

-4,00%

-2,00%

0,00%

2,00%

4,00%

6,00%

8,00%

10,00%

12,00%

14,00%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

6,10%

3%

1%

2,70%

0,70%

1,90%

0,60%

2,80%

1,20%

0,00%

1,00%

2,00%

3,00%

4,00%

5,00%

6,00%

7,00%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

2002 GDP Break Down

Business & Import Taxes19%

Transportat° & Com.

7%

Publ ic Administrat

15%

Manufac Industries

17%

O ther services

12%Water & Energy

7%

Extractive Industries

2%Real Estate

5%

Agriculture & Fishing

16%

Budget Deficit

-5,10%

-2,00%

-3,20%

-2,30%

0,90%

-5,90%

-2,60%

-4,30%

-3,50%

-6,00%

-5,00%

-4,00%

-3,00%

-2,00%

-1,00%

0,00%

1,00%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003