Allocation des ressources du FAD-11€¦ · Allocation des ressources du FAD-11 par Mme Marie-Ange Saraka-Yao. Chef de division, Mobilisation et allocation des ressources. RMT DU
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Allocation des ressources du FAD-11 par Mme Marie-Ange Saraka-Yao Chef de division, Mobilisation et allocation des ressources RMT DU FAD-11 20-21 octobre Helsinki
Mme Marie-Ange Saraka-YaoChef de division, Mobilisation et allocation des ressources
RMT DU FAD-11
20-21 octobre
Helsinki
Sommaire de la présentation
1 Mise en œuvre du cadre d’allocation des ressources du FAD-11
2 Résultats de l’application du cadre d’allocation
3 Questions à débattre dans le cadre du FAD-12
1
Les ressources disponibles pour allocation en voie d’assèchement
2 En millions d’UC, à fin septembre 2009 * Les ressources ABP sont corrigées de l’impact des imprévus négaga
2
15 15 2
13
408 515 386
129
965 965 786
179 4,142
2,997
2,289
708
417
5,948
4,492
3,462
1,030
Expected Available Committed Balance
ContingenciesPBA Resources*RO envelopeFSFPPF
o Concentration de l’utilisation des ressources en début de période
o Ressources actuellement disponibles insuffisantes pour financer la réserve de projets jusqu’à la fin de l’année et au premier trimestre de 2010 (1 185 millions d’UC)
o Les souscriptions, y compris la 3e
tranche, doivent être payées le plus tôt possible pour permettre au FAD de continuer à accorder des financements.
Présentateur�
Commentaires de présentation�
Total expected resources under ADF-11 amount to UA 5.95 billion. As of end-September 2009, resources available for commitment (i.e., internal resources and received unqualified subscriptions) stood at UA 4.49 billion, of which UA 3.46 billion or 77 percent had been committed. This represents more than a doubling of the volume at the time of the ADF-10 MTR. The pipeline of ADF operations scheduled for presentation to the Board of Directors between end-September 2009 and end-March 2010 totals UA 1.185 billion, i.e. more than the Fund’s current total commitment capacity of UA 1.030 billion, based on received unqualified subscriptions as of end September 2009. Therefore, the ADF will be unable to authorize commitments corresponding to its full 2009 and first quarter of 2010 pipeline unless all 2009 subscriptions are paid as due and donor countries pay (in cash or in promissory notes) the third installment of their subscription early, preferably in December 2009 instead of end March 2010. We therefore urge you most strenuously to pay this third installment as soon as possible, and to authorize the early commitment of your subscription in order to allow the ADF to continue to provide resources to ADF countries. �
Expected Available Committed Balance Pipeline until December
Pipeline until March
3
Présentateur�
Commentaires de présentation�
This slide shows the breakdown for three ADF windows (PBA, RO envelope, FSF). The UA 1.030 billion of commitment capacity which I mentioned is split among these windows and is not transferable among them. For the RO envelope and FSF, the current balance is enough to support the pipeline through March. The resource gap is in the PBA envelope. There, the pipeline of projects until the end of the year outweighs the balance of resources by UA 93 million, and the pipeline through March outweighs the resources available by UA 298 million. We therefore need your early payments if the ADF is to commit the full pipeline of PBA projects through end March. Apart from financing the current pipeline, there is the additional issue of flexibility. The pipeline is dynamic and can still increase. We do not know, for example, what kinds of requests we will still receive from ADF countries who are struggling with the economic consequences of the food, fuel and financial crises. We do know that with a shortage of resources, we have no flexibility at all to respond to these requests. Not only are we unable to fulfil existing demand, we cannot fulfil unforeseen additional demand. In order for the ADF to be able to continue its critical support to ADF countries, there are two options: 1) as many donor countries as possible pay the third instalment of their subscription early, i.e. in December. 2) donor countries who are willing and able agree to top up ADF-11 with additional contributions. �
Option 2:FAD-11 reçoit des contributions additionnelles
Option 1:3ème tranche payée avec anticipation
Le manque de ressources ABP signifie perte de flexibilité
Expected Available Committed Balance Pipeline until December
Pipeline until March
4
Présentateur�
Commentaires de présentation�
This slide shows the breakdown for three ADF windows (PBA, RO envelope, FSF). The UA 1.030 billion of commitment capacity which I mentioned is split among these windows and is not transferable among them. For the RO envelope and FSF, the current balance is enough to support the pipeline through March. The resource gap is in the PBA envelope. There, the pipeline of projects until the end of the year outweighs the balance of resources by UA 93 million, and the pipeline through March outweighs the resources available by UA 298 million. We therefore need your early payments if the ADF is to commit the full pipeline of PBA projects through end March. Apart from financing the current pipeline, there is the additional issue of flexibility. The pipeline is dynamic and can still increase. We do not know, for example, what kinds of requests we will still receive from ADF countries who are struggling with the economic consequences of the food, fuel and financial crises. We do know that with a shortage of resources, we have no flexibility at all to respond to these requests. Not only are we unable to fulfil existing demand, we cannot fulfil unforeseen additional demand. In order for the ADF to be able to continue its critical support to ADF countries, there are two options: 1) as many donor countries as possible pay the third instalment of their subscription early, i.e. in December. 2) donor countries who are willing and able agree to top up ADF-11 with additional contributions. �
Les taux de décaissement ont augmenté de manière significative
5%
10%
15%21%
15%
22%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Disb
urse
men
t rat
es* (
%)
2009
2008
2007
2006
* disbursement rates are calculated as disbursements within the calendar year divided by stock of undisbursed loans and grants at thebeginning of the year; Dudget Support operations and transfer to FSF are excluded
Sommaire de la présentation
1 Mise en œuvre du cadre d’allocation des ressources du FAD-11
2 Résultats de l’application du cadre d’allocation
3 Questions à débattre dans le cadre du FAD-12
6
55%
75%
97%81% 87%
100%
75% 77%
100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sept 2009 (actual) end 2009 (projected) end 2010 (projected)PBA utilization RO utilization FSF utilization
Les ressources du FAD-11 ont été utilisées comme convenu.o Allocation basée sur la performance: APP, CSD,
et déduction IADMo Enveloppes: opérations régionales, Etats fragileso Panachage d’instruments
7 7
Présentateur�
Commentaires de présentation�
ADF resources available for allocation are divided between PBA resources, which represent 75 percent of total resources after deductions for contingencies, and supplemental resources for regional operations (17.5 percent) and fragile states (7.5 percent). The figure shows the status of commitments for each these resources and demonstrates that resource allocation will have been strongly frontloaded by the end of 2009. We expect that not all countries will fully use their PBA allocation by the end of the ADF-11 period (for example Angola, Guinea, Madagascar); unused resources will flow into ADF-12 as carry-over. So far in ADF-11 [end-Sept. 2009], 67 percent of country PBA commitments have been for investment projects and 33 percent have been for policy-based loans (PBLs). The significant share of PBLs is due in part to high demand early in the cycle for fast-disbursing instruments. The current 2009-2010 pipeline indicates that the share of PBLs will fall below the 25 percent ceiling for PBLs agreed for ADF-11 by the end of the cycle. However, in the context of the economic and financial crisis, ongoing dialogue with RMCs indicates that there is still solid demand for crisis-related PBLs, which may lead PBLs to exceed the 25 percent ceiling. Management is closely monitoring this ratio and will report to the Board of Directors if demand exceeds the 25 percent threshold. Countries receive their allocation in the form of loans, grants, or a mix thereof in accordance with the Debt Sustainability Framework. As of end-September 2009, 73% of ADF-11 PBA resources have been allocated in the form of loans and 27% in the form of grants.�
Set AsidesFSF & RO without cost‐sharing10%
Direct PBA75%
PBA LinkedFSF 1 & RO with cost‐sharing15%
L’application du cadre d’allocation rapporte des résultats solideso 90% des ressources
allouées sont liées à la performance
.
8 8
Présentateur�
Commentaires de présentation�
The allocation system is working well. Firstly, 90% of resources are allocated on the basis of performance. 75% directly through the PBA system, and 15% through FSF pillar I (supplemental resources, based on ADF-10 allocation) and the cost-sharing element of Regional Operations. Only the resources for FSF pillars II and III and the ROs without cost sharing are not based on performance. Secondly, the top performing countries consistently receive a larger share of the resources. Since ADF-9, the two strongest performing quintiles have received approximately 67% of the resources. Thirdly, by netting out the amount of MDRI debt relief from the allocations of HIPC completion point countries and redistributing the compensation received from donors to the 38 ADF-only countries through the PBA system, it is not only the HIPC countries which benefit from MDRI debt relief but all ADF-only countries. Also, the performance-based system is reinforced.�
First Quintile, 37.20%
Second Quintile, 28.10%
Third Quintile, 20.70%
Fourth Quintile, 6.80%
Fifth Quintile, 7.20%
L’application du cadre d’allocation rapporte des résultats solides
90% des ressources allouées sont liées à la performance
o Les pays les plus performants reçoivent systématiquement une plus grande part des ressources.
9 9
Présentateur�
Commentaires de présentation�
The allocation system is working well. Firstly, 90% of resources are allocated on the basis of performance. 75% directly through the PBA system, and 15% through FSF pillar I (supplemental resources, based on ADF-10 allocation) and the cost-sharing element of Regional Operations. Only the resources for FSF pillars II and III and the ROs without cost sharing are not based on performance. Secondly, the top performing countries consistently receive a larger share of the resources. Since ADF-9, the two strongest performing quintiles have received approximately 67% of the resources. Thirdly, by netting out the amount of MDRI debt relief from the allocations of HIPC completion point countries and redistributing the compensation received from donors to the 38 ADF-only countries through the PBA system, it is not only the HIPC countries which benefit from MDRI debt relief but all ADF-only countries. Also, the performance-based system is reinforced.�
L’application du cadre d’allocation rapporte des résultats solides
o L’IADM profite à tous les pays FAD à travers la redistribution des compensations.
10 10
Présentateur�
Commentaires de présentation�
The allocation system is working well. Firstly, 90% of resources are allocated on the basis of performance. 75% directly through the PBA system, and 15% through FSF pillar I (supplemental resources, based on ADF-10 allocation) and the cost-sharing element of Regional Operations. Only the resources for FSF pillars II and III and the ROs without cost sharing are not based on performance. Secondly, the top performing countries consistently receive a larger share of the resources. Since ADF-9, the two strongest performing quintiles have received approximately 67% of the resources. Thirdly, by netting out the amount of MDRI debt relief from the allocations of HIPC completion point countries and redistributing the compensation received from donors to the 38 ADF-only countries through the PBA system, it is not only the HIPC countries which benefit from MDRI debt relief but all ADF-only countries. Also, the performance-based system is reinforced.�
Sommaire de la présentation
1 Mise en œuvre du cadre d’allocation des ressources du FAD-11
2 Résultats de l’application du cadre d’allocation
3 Questions à débattre dans le cadre du FAD-12
11
Expérience tirée de la mise en oeuvre : Questions qui seront débattues dans le cadre du FAD-12o La performance du portefeuille apporte de la volatilité aux
allocations.
• Même si la méthodologie a été révisée pour exclure les projets potentiellement problématiques, la volatilité reste forte.
Average Variation 2008-2009
CPIA CPPR Governance Rating
2 percent 25 percent 5 percent
12
Présentateur�
Commentaires de présentation�
During two years of implementation several issues have come forward which should be addressed during the ADF-12 replenishment discussions. The first issue is the volatility of CPPRs. Despite the measures taken in the ADF-11 framework, substantial volatility in CPPRs remains a main source of volatility in ADF country allocations, as is the case at other multilateral development banks. It is much higher than any other component of the Country Performance Assessment formula. The quality of the ratings and the size of the portfolio are two of the main factors accounting for the swing in portfolio ratings from one year to the next. Efforts are being undertaken to improve the quality of the ratings through various supervision enhancement procedures presently being implemented by the Quality Assurance and Results department. But the small size of the portfolios of ADF countries—which average 11 projects, with a wide variation between countries—remains a key factor. The smaller the number of projects in the portfolio, the larger the impact on the CPPR of a deterioration in the performance of one of the projects. A second challenge, in the slightly more distant future, is the netting out of MDRI debt relief. The amount of debt cancellation provided under the MDRI will increase steadily over the coming years and will reach its peak around 2025. These amounts will be netted out from MDRI countries’ allocations and re-allocated to all ADF countries, as described earlier. While the overall level of MDRI netting out is expected to remain low relative to total allocations, the volatility in individual country allocations resulting from MDRI netting out may pose operational challenges for the Fund. The allocations of a small number of countries could decrease by more than 25 percent. While the ultimate impact of MDRI netting out will depend on the size of future replenishments, the Fund’s ability to provide financial support in the form of ADF allocations to some ADF countries could be significantly impacted. Thirdly, the impending graduation of Cape Verde, the first country to become a blend country since the Bank adopted the World Bank’s Credit Policy in 1995, and the possible graduation of additional countries, raises the need for the Bank to develop a graduation policy to provide blend countries with an adequate mix of resources during their transition to creditworthiness for pure ADB financing. In the paper on the blend policy we requested your guidance on a number of issues. We thank you for your comments and will present a proposal during the ADF-12 replenishment discussion. �
Expérience tirée de la mise en oeuvre : Questions qui seront débattues dans le cadre du FAD-12o La performance du portefeuille apporte de la volatilité aux
allocations.
• Même si la méthodologie a été révisée pour exclure les projets potentiellement problématiques, la volatilité reste forte.
o En fonction des estimations, la compensation au titre de l’IADM risque de réduire sensiblement les allocations d’un petit nombre de pays à l’avenir.
o La politique de reclassement devra être adoptée de manière à assurer aux pays reclassés (Cap-Vert et peut-être Angola) un dosage adéquat de ressources.
13
Présentateur�
Commentaires de présentation�
During two years of implementation several issues have come forward which should be addressed during the ADF-12 replenishment discussions. The first issue is the volatility of CPPRs. Despite the measures taken in the ADF-11 framework, substantial volatility in CPPRs remains a main source of volatility in ADF country allocations, as is the case at other multilateral development banks. It is much higher than any other component of the Country Performance Assessment formula. The quality of the ratings and the size of the portfolio are two of the main factors accounting for the swing in portfolio ratings from one year to the next. Efforts are being undertaken to improve the quality of the ratings through various supervision enhancement procedures presently being implemented by the Quality Assurance and Results department. But the small size of the portfolios of ADF countries—which average 11 projects, with a wide variation between countries—remains a key factor. The smaller the number of projects in the portfolio, the larger the impact on the CPPR of a deterioration in the performance of one of the projects. A second challenge, in the slightly more distant future, is the netting out of MDRI debt relief. The amount of debt cancellation provided under the MDRI will increase steadily over the coming years and will reach its peak around 2025. These amounts will be netted out from MDRI countries’ allocations and re-allocated to all ADF countries, as described earlier. While the overall level of MDRI netting out is expected to remain low relative to total allocations, the volatility in individual country allocations resulting from MDRI netting out may pose operational challenges for the Fund. The allocations of a small number of countries could decrease by more than 25 percent. While the ultimate impact of MDRI netting out will depend on the size of future replenishments, the Fund’s ability to provide financial support in the form of ADF allocations to some ADF countries could be significantly impacted. Thirdly, the impending graduation of Cape Verde, the first country to become a blend country since the Bank adopted the World Bank’s Credit Policy in 1995, and the possible graduation of additional countries, raises the need for the Bank to develop a graduation policy to provide blend countries with an adequate mix of resources during their transition to creditworthiness for pure ADB financing. In the paper on the blend policy we requested your guidance on a number of issues. We thank you for your comments and will present a proposal during the ADF-12 replenishment discussion. �
Conclusion
o Le système d’ABP joue un rôle clé dans l’allocation des ressources dans le cadre du FAD-11 et continuera à jouer un tel rôle.
o Les problèmes de mise en œuvre ont été cernés et seront examinés dans le cadre du FAD-12.
o Les engagements sont en train d’être concentrés en début de période, comme demandé par le G20. Les bailleurs sont donc encouragés à accélérer le paiement de leurs tranches pour permettre au FAD de poursuivre sa mission.
14 14
MERCI
15
DIAPOSITIVES D’APPOINT
16
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Q1/'08 Q3/'08 Q1/'09 Q3/'09 Q1/'10 Q3/'10
Other instrumentsCapacity-BuildingBudget Support
En raison des approbations en début de cycle, la part globale des projets de gouvernance baissera de 33 % à 23 %.
33%de l’ABP
23%de l’ABP
1717
49%
79%
20%
55%
33%
4%
69%
28%
13% 11% 12%5% 6% 11% 5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
PBA RO FSF, excl arrears clearance
TOTAL
Infrastructure Governance/PBLs Agriculture & Rural Devt Human Development
L’orientation sectorielle conforme aux priorités essentielles a été préservée pour l’ABP, ainsi que pour les RO et la FEF.
Nombre de pays par catégorie de feu de signalisation au titre du CSD, 2005-2009
20
14
5
21
16
4
20
13
9
18
14
8
18
14
8
18
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Red
Yellow
Green
20
Number of ADF Countries by HIPC Status and Traffic Light Designation, 2005-2009
912
9 9 95 4 4 5 5
42 7 7 7
1 2 2 1 1
13
3 3 4
108 7 9 9 8 8 7
5 4
2 1 1 1 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Completion Point Decision Point Pre‐Decision Point Non‐HIPC
Red
Yellow
Green
21
Part des prêts et des dons dans les allocations ABP, 2005-2009
22
65.7% 71.5% 71.8% 74.5% 74.4%
34.3% 28.5% 28.2% 25.5% 25.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Grants
Loans
22
Revue du CSD - Aout 2009
• Le FMI et la BM ont approuvé des ajustements au CSD:
– Confirmation de l’outil de diagnostique– Attention accru au lien investissement - croissance– Transferts des migrants– Flexibilité pour les entreprises publiques
• Les changements prendront effet dans toutes les ASD conduites à partir de 2010
23 23
Révision de la politique d’endettement non concessionnel (PENC)
o Le FMI a approuvé en Aout 2009 une révision de sa politique de concessionalité
o Basculement d’une approche uniforme à une approche basée sur les caractéristiques des pays
o Les limites d’endettement non concessionnel sont déterminées sur la base de:
–La Vulnérabilité de la dette–La Capacité de gestion de la dette
o Le FAD révisera sa PENC en coordination avec l’IDA
